Norfolk Academy '23
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.64 (fleet 1.03) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 11–15 (42%) as crew 0–2 (0%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 | 1 | 6–4 | — |
| Fall 2022 | 2 | 5–11 | 0–2 |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (26 matches) the record is 11–15 against 10.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.2). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-03-18 | VISA Maury Team Race Regatta | skipper | 0.95 | 1.53 | 6–4 | 5.2 | +0.57 | 0.3 | 40% |
| 2022-10-08 | VISA Team Champs | skipper | 0.72 | 0.34 | 4–7 | 4.6 | −0.38 | 0.1 | 78% |
| 2022-09-17 | VISA Maury Team Race Regatta | skipper | 0.81 | 0.69 | 1–4 | 1.1 | −0.12 | 0.0 | 73% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| VISA Maury Team Race Regatta | Skipper | TR | 12 | 67% | — |
| VISA Hampton Roads Academy Fleet Regatta | Skipper | A | — | — | — |
| VISA Christchurch Regatta 3/25 | Skipper | B | 2 | 4.5 | 1.73 |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| VISA Team Champs | Crew | TR | 12 | 23% | — |
| VISA State Fleet Race Championship | Skipper | B | 5 | 13.2 | 0.41 |
| VISA Poquoson Fleet Regatta. | Skipper | A | 3 | 14.0 | -0.86 |
| VISA Maury Team Race Regatta | Skipper | TR | 12 | 50% | — |
| VISA Grafton York Fleet Race Regatta | Skipper | B | 7 | 5.6 | 0.97 |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| VISA York/Grafton Fleet Regatta | Skipper | B | 5 | 13.6 | -0.36 |
| VISA Kecoughtan/Phoebus Fleet Regatta | Skipper | B | 2 | 11.0 | 0.10 |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| VISA NSA JV Fleet Race Regatta | Skipper | A | 1 | 4.0 | -0.61 |
| VISA JV Leukemia Cup Regatta | Crew | A | 5 | 6.4 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
To have this profile removed, email quinnbrighton2005@gmail.com.
