VISA Grafton York Fleet Race Regatta

HostYouth Sailing Virginia
Date10/15/2022
TypeIn-League
BoatCFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Grafton High School	Clippers 1	25	19	44
2	Maury High School	Commodores 1	40	13	53
3	The Hague School	The Tritons	24	40	64
4	Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs 1	27	39	66
5	Maury High School	Commodores 2	26	43	69
6	Kecoughtan High School	Warriors	33	38	71
7	Hampton Roads Academy	Navigators	77	37	114
8	York High School	Falcons	72	58	130
9	Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs 3	76	62	138
10	Grafton High School	Clippers 2	72	73	145
11	Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs 2	80	71	151
12	Heritage High School - VA	Heritage - VA	52	104	156
13	Williamsburg Classical Academy	Owls	87 MRP	90 MRP	177 MRP
14	Peninsula Catholic High School	Knights	91	91	182
15	Bruton High School	Panthers	98	89	187
16	Catholic High School	Crusaders	95	105	200

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	TOT	Sailors
The Hague School	The Tritons	1	3	1	1	5	7	6	24	Charlotte Stillman '23 Justina Reynolds '24
Grafton High School	Clippers 1	4	9	5	3	1	2	1	25	Blake Goodwin '23 Felix Susta '27
Maury High School	Commodores 2	7	1	2	4	3	5	4	26	Tucker Mcgrady '26 [1-7] Nathan Libby '26 [1-2, 5-6] Charlotte Mccoy '24 [3-4] Austin Sadler '26 [7]
Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs 1	2	2	4	2	2	6	9	27	Eliana Mopper '26 Gabby Crass '26
Kecoughtan High School	Warriors	5	4	6	9	6	1	2	33	Madison Newton '25 Caleb Kyle '25
Maury High School	Commodores 1	3	8	9	5	7	3	5	40	Charlotte Shumate '24 Gabby Cloe '24
Heritage High School - VA	Heritage - VA	14	5	3	12	4	11	3	52	Angelo Bellecci '25 Chloe Anderson '24
Grafton High School	Clippers 2	11	7	10	10	14	8	12	72	Grif Mahan '25 Ezekiel Hurst '25
York High School	Falcons	12	14	7	7	13	9	10	72	Grayson Kelly '27 Tyler Compton '29
Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs 3	10	12	12	13	8	10	11	76	Margaret Poston '28 Davis Broach '27
Hampton Roads Academy	Navigators	6	6	8	6	DSQ	DSQ	DSQ	77	Charlie Moore '27 [1-7] Joe Rosati '24 [1-2] Ryan Foretich '25 [3-4] Josie Brindley '26 [5-7]
Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs 2	8	16	15	8	10	15	8	80	Grant Fernandez '27 Owen Peluso '26
Williamsburg Classical Academy	Owls	9	11	14	11	11	4	7	87 MRP	No Show No Show
Peninsula Catholic High School	Knights	13	13	11	15	12	13	14	91	Madison Bivins '25 Aidan Murphy '25
Catholic High School	Crusaders	15	10	16	16	9	14	15	95	Abbie Kiggans '23 Kelly Lee '26
Bruton High School	Panthers	16	15	13	14	15	12	13	98	Collin Mcpherson '24 Christian Kuehni '29

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	TOT	Sailors
Maury High School	Commodores 1	5	1	1	1	3	1	1	13	Jackson Mcgrady '26 Lillian Rippel '25
Grafton High School	Clippers 1	3	5	2	2	2	2	3	19	Nick Fogt '23 Charles Rasback '27
Hampton Roads Academy	Navigators	4	3	7	6	5	7	5	37	Josie Brindley '26 [1-2] Stone Dewey '26 [3-7] Stone Dewey '26 [1-2] Joe Rosati '24 [3-4] Ryan Foretich '25 [5-7]
Kecoughtan High School	Warriors	11	7	5	4	4	5	2	38	Kieran Mason '26 Molly Hanson '23
Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs 1	1	2	4	8	7	11	6	39	James Savage '23 Emma Tartiere-Martinez '28
The Hague School	The Tritons	2	4	9	11	6	4	4	40	Nicholas Davis '24 [1-7] Michael Chase '23 [1-2, 5-7] Ryan Sullivan '23 [3-4]
Maury High School	Commodores 2	9	8	8	5	1	3	9	43	Thomas Bloys '24 Madeline Ballard '25
York High School	Falcons	8	9	6	7	8	10	10	58	Liam Burke '27 Dylan Thomas '28
Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs 3	6	6	13	15	9	6	7	62	Foard Hunter '27 [1-7] Shiza Zahir '28 [1-2, 5-6] Will Poynter '27 [3-4, 7]
Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs 2	12	10	10	3	12	13	11	71	Mady Mcgee '27 [1-7] Eraj Zaidi '25 [1-4] Soham Patel '28 [5-7]
Grafton High School	Clippers 2	10	11	11	9	11	9	12	73	Felix Susta '27 Evan Britton '27
Bruton High School	Panthers	13	14	14	13	13	14	8	89	Raquel Theriault '26 [1-6] Collin Mcpherson '24 [7] Rozlyn Theriault '29 [1-6] Christian Kuehni '29 [7]
Williamsburg Classical Academy	Owls	7	12	3	10	14	8	16	90 MRP	No Show No Show
Peninsula Catholic High School	Knights	14	13	15	14	10	12	13	91	Slater Freischlag '24 Mikenna Dunlap '24
Heritage High School - VA	Heritage - VA	15	16	12	16	15	16	14	104	Scarlett Foster '26 [1-2] Aisha Elrahhal '28 [3-7] Aisha Elrahhal '28 [1-2] James Samuels '27 [3-7]
Catholic High School	Crusaders	16	15	16	12	16	15	15	105	Hunter Heckman '26 Sebastian Rodriguez '25

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.120+0.12

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2017 (48 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A
Bruton High School Panthers	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Catholic High School Crusaders	13	13	13	13	13	13	13
Grafton High School Clippers 1	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Grafton High School Clippers 2	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
Hampton Roads Academy Navigators	14	14	14	14	14	14	14
Heritage High School - VA Heritage - VA	8	8	8	8	8	8	8
Kecoughtan High School Warriors	9	9	9	9	9	9	9
Maury High School Commodores 1	16	16	16	16	16	16	16
Maury High School Commodores 2	17	17	17	17	17	17	17
Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 2	11	11	11	11	11	11	11
Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 3	12	12	12	12	12	12	12
Peninsula Catholic High School Knights	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
The Hague School The Tritons	18	18	18	18	18	18	18
Williamsburg Classical Academy Owls	6	6	6	6	6	6	6
York High School Falcons	4	4	4	4	4	4	4

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B
Bruton High School Panthers	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Catholic High School Crusaders	13	13	13	13	13	13	13
Grafton High School Clippers 1	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Grafton High School Clippers 2	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
Hampton Roads Academy Navigators	14	14	14	14	14	14	14
Heritage High School - VA Heritage - VA	8	8	8	8	8	8	8
Kecoughtan High School Warriors	9	9	9	9	9	9	9
Maury High School Commodores 1	16	16	16	16	16	16	16
Maury High School Commodores 2	17	17	17	17	17	17	17
Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 2	11	11	11	11	11	11	11
Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 3	12	12	12	12	12	12	12
Peninsula Catholic High School Knights	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
The Hague School The Tritons	18	18	18	18	18	18	18
Williamsburg Classical Academy Owls	6	6	6	6	6	6	6
York High School Falcons	4	4	4	4	4	4	4

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Bruton High School	Collin Mcpherson '24	Christian Kuehni '29
Panthers	Raquel Theriault '26 [1-6] Collin Mcpherson '24 [7]	Rozlyn Theriault '29 [1-6] Christian Kuehni '29 [7]
Catholic High School	Abbie Kiggans '23	Kelly Lee '26
Crusaders	Hunter Heckman '26	Sebastian Rodriguez '25
Grafton High School	Blake Goodwin '23	Felix Susta '27
Clippers 1	Nick Fogt '23	Charles Rasback '27
Grafton High School	Grif Mahan '25	Ezekiel Hurst '25
Clippers 2	Felix Susta '27	Evan Britton '27
Hampton Roads Academy	Charlie Moore '27 [1-7]	Joe Rosati '24 [1-2] Ryan Foretich '25 [3-4] Josie Brindley '26 [5-7]
Navigators	Josie Brindley '26 [1-2] Stone Dewey '26 [3-7]	Stone Dewey '26 [1-2] Joe Rosati '24 [3-4] Ryan Foretich '25 [5-7]
Heritage High School - VA	Angelo Bellecci '25	Chloe Anderson '24
Heritage - VA	Scarlett Foster '26 [1-2] Aisha Elrahhal '28 [3-7]	Aisha Elrahhal '28 [1-2] James Samuels '27 [3-7]
Kecoughtan High School	Madison Newton '25	Caleb Kyle '25
Warriors	Kieran Mason '26	Molly Hanson '23
Maury High School	Charlotte Shumate '24	Gabby Cloe '24
Commodores 1	Jackson Mcgrady '26	Lillian Rippel '25
Maury High School	Tucker Mcgrady '26 [1-7]	Nathan Libby '26 [1-2, 5-6] Charlotte Mccoy '24 [3-4] Austin Sadler '26 [7]
Commodores 2	Thomas Bloys '24	Madeline Ballard '25
Norfolk Academy	Eliana Mopper '26	Gabby Crass '26
Bulldogs 1	James Savage '23	Emma Tartiere-Martinez '28
Norfolk Academy	Grant Fernandez '27	Owen Peluso '26
Bulldogs 2	Mady Mcgee '27 [1-7]	Eraj Zaidi '25 [1-4] Soham Patel '28 [5-7]
Norfolk Academy	Margaret Poston '28	Davis Broach '27
Bulldogs 3	Foard Hunter '27 [1-7]	Shiza Zahir '28 [1-2, 5-6] Will Poynter '27 [3-4, 7]
Peninsula Catholic High School	Madison Bivins '25	Aidan Murphy '25
Knights	Slater Freischlag '24	Mikenna Dunlap '24
The Hague School	Charlotte Stillman '23	Justina Reynolds '24
The Tritons	Nicholas Davis '24 [1-7]	Michael Chase '23 [1-2, 5-7] Ryan Sullivan '23 [3-4]
Williamsburg Classical Academy	No Show	No Show
Owls	No Show	No Show
York High School	Grayson Kelly '27	Tyler Compton '29
Falcons	Liam Burke '27	Dylan Thomas '28

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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VISA Grafton York Fleet Race Regatta

Division A

Division B

From the notes