Hampton Roads Academy '27
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.94 (fleet 1.68) | 155 of 231 | −0.10 ± 0.16 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 31–60 (34%) as crew 12–3 (80%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 3 | 2–13 | — |
| Fall 2025 | 3 | 4–17 | — |
| Spring 2025 | 3 | 13–12 | 8–2 |
| Fall 2024 | 3 | 7–8 | — |
| Spring 2024 | 1 | — | 4–1 |
| Fall 2023 | 1 | 0–1 | — |
| Fall 2022 | 1 | 5–9 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 14 graded regattas (103 matches) the record is 41–62 against 46.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−5.1). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 6 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 9 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | VISA Patterson Trophy and Team race Champs | skipper | 1.31 | -1.69 | 0–7 | 1.3 | ≤−3.00 | 2.1 | >99% |
| 2026-04-04 | VISA Hampton Roads Academy Team Race Regatta | skipper | 1.29 | 2.36 | 1–3 | 0.6 | +1.07 | 0.2 | 58% |
| 2026-03-21 | VISA CCS Team Race Regatta | skipper | 1.22 | 1.27 | 1–3 | 1.0 | +0.06 | 0.0 | 81% |
| 2025-10-11 | VISA Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.29 | -0.11 | 3–10 | 5.1 | −1.40 | 1.6 | 97% |
| 2025-10-04 | VISA NCS Team Regatta I | skipper | 1.29 | 2.34 | 1–2 | 0.6 | +1.05 | 0.2 | 52% |
| 2025-09-20 | VISA HCS Team Race Regatta | skipper | 1.31 | -1.69 | 0–5 | 1.1 | ≤−3.00 | 1.8 | >99% |
| 2025-05-17 | National Invitational Tournament | skipper | 1.24 | 1.33 | 10–8 | 9.7 | +0.09 | 0.0 | 54% |
| 2025-04-19 | VISA Team Race Championship for Patterson Trophy | crew | 1.49 | 2.52 | 8–2 | 6.5 | +1.03 | 0.8 | 26% |
| 2025-04-05 | VISA HRA Team Race Regatta | skipper | 1.32 | -0.50 | 1–4 | 2.0 | −1.83 | 0.9 | 97% |
| 2024-10-12 | MASSA Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.08 | 0.78 | 3–2 | 3.2 | −0.30 | 0.0 | 78% |
| 2024-10-05 | VISA Team race Championship | skipper | 1.05 | 1.16 | 2–3 | 1.9 | +0.11 | 0.0 | 68% |
| 2024-09-28 | VISA HCS Team Race Regatta 2 | skipper | 1.25 | 0.86 | 2–3 | 2.3 | −0.39 | 0.1 | 79% |
| 2024-03-30 | VISA Norfolk Academy Team Race | crew | 2.19 | 2.15 | 4–1 | 4.0 | −0.04 | 0.0 | 77% |
| 2022-09-17 | VISA Maury Team Race Regatta | skipper | 0.88 | -0.16 | 5–9 | 6.7 | −1.04 | 1.0 | 94% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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