| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Christchurch School | Seahorses One 1 | 18–1 |
| 2 |  |
Norfolk Academy | Bulldogs One 1 | 15–4 |
| 3 |  |
Norfolk Collegiate School | Oaks | 9–10 |
| 4 |  |
Maury High School | Commodores | 3–16 |
| 5 |  |
Hampton Roads Academy | Navigators | 1–15 |
| 6 |  |
Kecoughtan High School | Warriors | 0–0 |
| 6 | |
Norfolk Academy | Bulldogs One 2 | 0–0 |
| 6 | |
Christchurch School | Seahorses One 2 | 0–0 |
| 6 | |
Christchurch School | Seahorses One 3 | 0–0 |
| 6 | |
Christchurch School | Seahorses One 4 | 0–0 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 14,167 team race matches sailed before 2026-10-10, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 44 of 46 matches (96%) with a log-loss of 0.171 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.49 ± 0.34: an orderly event, more orderly than 76% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Christchurch School Seahorses One 1 | 1 | 7.26 school +0.31 | Wylder Smith / Emily Julian 2.78 Wyatt Lipp / Sarah Moore 2.21 Edu Navarro Avila / Kaia Deane 1.92 | 89% | 18–1 (95%) | +1.2 |
| 2 | Norfolk Academy Bulldogs One 1 | 2 | 6.38 school +0.24 | James Allgeier / Juliana Libby 2.97 Andrew Allgeier / Will Poynter 2.08 Grant Fernandez / Jane Earp 1.04 | 77% | 15–4 (79%) | +0.3 |
| 3 | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks | 3 | 4.20 school +0.15, home +0.17 | Brandt Adams / Corrine Todd 2.05 Chase Duhon-Kovach / Mollie Armentrout 1.32 Finian Bohan / Michael Wattenbarger 0.46 | 49% | 9–10 (47%) | −0.2 |
| 4 | Maury High School Commodores | 4 | 1.56 | Samuel Rogge / Colin Moorhouse 0.67 Elias Bowes / Cooper Longhini 0.53 Annika Fox / Lenox Wakefield 0.34 | 16% | 3–16 (16%) | +0.0 |
| 5 | Hampton Roads Academy Navigators | 5 | 1.27 school −0.42 | Charlie Moore / Patrick Bielewicz 1.18 Jack Duggan / Jillian Lassiter Madeline Monteith / Daphne Ambrosino 0.74 | 14% | 1–15 (6%) | −1.3 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Christchurch School Seahorses One 1 | 7.26 | 8.51 | 18–1 | 16.8 | +1.25 | 0.7 | 31% |
| 2 | Norfolk Academy Bulldogs One 1 | 6.38 | 6.57 | 15–4 | 14.7 | +0.19 | 0.0 | 57% |
| 4 | Maury High School Commodores | 1.56 | 1.60 | 3–16 | 3.0 | +0.03 | 0.0 | 63% |
| 3 | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks | 4.20 | 4.03 | 9–10 | 9.2 | −0.17 | 0.0 | 72% |
| 5 | Hampton Roads Academy Navigators | 1.27 | -0.16 | 1–15 | 2.3 | −1.43 | 0.9 | 94% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wylder Smith | Christchurch School | 2.78 | 4.03 | 18–1 | 16.8 | +1.25 | 0.7 | 31% |
| Wyatt Lipp | Christchurch School | 2.21 | 3.46 | 18–1 | 16.8 | +1.25 | 0.7 | 31% |
| Edu Navarro Avila | Christchurch School | 1.92 | 3.16 | 18–1 | 16.8 | +1.25 | 0.7 | 31% |
| James Allgeier | Norfolk Academy | 2.97 | 3.16 | 15–4 | 14.7 | +0.19 | 0.0 | 57% |
| Andrew Allgeier | Norfolk Academy | 2.08 | 2.28 | 15–4 | 14.7 | +0.19 | 0.0 | 57% |
| Grant Fernandez | Norfolk Academy | 1.04 | 1.24 | 15–4 | 14.7 | +0.19 | 0.0 | 57% |
| Samuel Rogge | Maury High School | 0.67 | 0.70 | 3–16 | 3.0 | +0.03 | 0.0 | 63% |
| Elias Bowes | Maury High School | 0.53 | 0.56 | 3–16 | 3.0 | +0.03 | 0.0 | 63% |
| Annika Fox | Maury High School | 0.34 | 0.37 | 3–16 | 3.0 | +0.03 | 0.0 | 63% |
| Brandt Adams | Norfolk Collegiate School | 2.05 | 1.88 | 9–10 | 9.2 | −0.17 | 0.0 | 72% |
| Chase Duhon-Kovach | Norfolk Collegiate School | 1.32 | 1.15 | 9–10 | 9.2 | −0.17 | 0.0 | 72% |
| Finian Bohan | Norfolk Collegiate School | 0.46 | 0.29 | 9–10 | 9.2 | −0.17 | 0.0 | 72% |
| Charlie Moore | Hampton Roads Academy | 1.18 | -0.25 | 1–15 | 2.3 | −1.43 | 0.9 | 94% |
| Jack Duggan | Hampton Roads Academy | -0.33 | -1.76 | 1–15 | 2.3 | −1.43 | 0.9 | 94% |
| Madeline Monteith | Hampton Roads Academy | 0.74 | -0.69 | 1–15 | 2.3 | −1.43 | 0.9 | 94% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Seahorses One 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Navigators | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Bulldogs One 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Oaks | 3-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Seahorses One 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Commodores | 3-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Bulldogs One 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Navigators | 3-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Seahorses One 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Oaks | 3-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Navigators | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Commodores | 2-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Seahorses One 1 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs One 1 | 1-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Oaks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Commodores | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Oaks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Navigators | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Bulldogs One 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Commodores | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Seahorses One 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Navigators | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Bulldogs One 1 | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Oaks | 2-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Seahorses One 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Commodores | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Bulldogs One 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Navigators | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Seahorses One 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Oaks | 4-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Commodores | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Navigators | 4-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Seahorses One 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs One 1 | 3-4-6 |
| 18 | |
Oaks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Commodores | 3-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Oaks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Navigators | 3-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Bulldogs One 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Commodores | 4-5-6 DNF |
| 21 | |
Seahorses One 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Navigators | 4-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Bulldogs One 1 | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Oaks | 2-4-6 |
| 23 | |
Seahorses One 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Commodores | 4-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Bulldogs One 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Navigators | 3-4-6 |
| 25 | |
Seahorses One 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Oaks | 3-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Commodores | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Navigators | 2-4-6 |
| 27 | |
Bulldogs One 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahorses One 1 | 3-4-6 |
| 28 | |
Oaks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Commodores | 4-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Oaks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Navigators | 3-4-6 |
| 30 | |
Bulldogs One 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Commodores | 4-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Seahorses One 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Navigators | 4-5-6 |
| 32 | |
Bulldogs One 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Oaks | 3-5-6 |
| 33 | |
Seahorses One 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Commodores | 4-5-6 |
| 34 | |
Bulldogs One 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Navigators | 3-4-6 |
| 35 | |
Seahorses One 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Oaks | 4-5-6 |
| 36 | |
Commodores | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Navigators | 1-5-6 DNF |
| 37 | |
Seahorses One 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs One 1 | 3-5-6 |
| 38 | |
Oaks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Commodores | 4-5-6 |
| 39 | |
Oaks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Navigators | 4-5-6 |
| 40 | |
Bulldogs One 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Commodores | 4-5-6 |
| 41 | |
Bulldogs One 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Commodores | 3-5-6 |
| 42 | |
Seahorses One 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Oaks | 3-5-6 |
| 43 | |
Oaks | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Commodores | 1-4-6 |
| 44 | |
Seahorses One 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs One 1 | 3-5-6 |
| 45 | |
Bulldogs One 1 | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Oaks | 2-5-6 |
| 46 | |
Seahorses One 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Commodores | 4-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Christchurch School | Seahorses One 1 | Edu Navarro Avila '29 Wyatt Lipp '28 Wylder Smith '27 |
Kaia Deane '28 Sarah Moore '29 Emily Julian '28 |
|
Norfolk Academy | Bulldogs One 1 | Andrew Allgeier '30 Grant Fernandez '27 James Allgeier '27 |
Will Poynter '27 Jane Earp '27 Juliana Libby '28 |
|
Norfolk Collegiate School | Oaks | Brandt Adams '30 Chase Duhon-Kovach '29 Finian Bohan '27 |
Corrine Todd '28 Mollie Armentrout '28 Michael Wattenbarger '27 |
|
Maury High School | Commodores | Annika Fox '27 Elias Bowes '27 Samuel Rogge '28 |
Lenox Wakefield '27 Cooper Longhini '28 Colin Moorhouse '27 |
|
Hampton Roads Academy | Navigators | Charlie Moore '27 Jack Duggan '28 Madeline Monteith '29 |
Patrick Bielewicz '28 Jillian Lassiter '28 Daphne Ambrosino '27 |
