Norfolk Academy '30
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.60 (fleet 2.66) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.04 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 5–9 (36%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 1 | 2–6 | — |
| Fall 2025 | 1 | 2–0 | — |
| Fall 2024 | 1 | 1–3 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (12 matches) the record is 3–9 against 5.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−2.6). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | VISA Patterson Trophy and Team race Champs | skipper | 1.77 | -0.04 | 2–6 | 3.8 | −1.81 | 1.8 | 98% |
| 2024-10-05 | VISA Team race Championship | skipper | 1.44 | -0.39 | 1–3 | 1.8 | −1.83 | 0.8 | 97% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| VISA Patterson Trophy and Team race Champs | Skipper | TR | 8 | 25% | — |
| VISA Norfolk Collegiate Fleet Regatta | Skipper | A | 8 | 2.0 | 3.34 |
| VISA NA Fleet Race Regatta | Skipper | A | 5 | 7.0 | 1.79 |
| VISA Maury/Hague Fleet Race | Skipper | A | 5 | 2.8 | 3.34 |
| VISA Kecoughtan Fleet Race Regatta | Skipper | A | 4 | 2.5 | 4.20 |
| VISA Fleet Championship | Skipper | A | 7 | 3.6 | 2.13 |
| VISA CCS Fleet Regatta | Skipper | A | 7 | 5.1 | 3.03 |
| VISA Norfolk Academy Fleet Race Regatta 2 | Skipper | B | 8 | 4.2 | 1.73 |
| Fall 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| VISA Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 13 | 38% | — |
| VISA Fleet Championship | Skipper | B | 6 | 1.5 | 4.20 |
| VISA Norfolk Academy Fleet Race Regatta | Skipper | B | 4 | 4.8 | 0.84 |
| VISA Catholic HS Fleet Race Regatta | Skipper | A | 8 | 1.6 | 4.13 |
| Fall 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| VISA Team race Championship | Skipper | TR | 10 | 30% | — |
| VISA Norfolk Academy Fleet Race | Skipper | A | 2 | 9.0 | 0.53 |
| VISA Maury/Granby Fleet Regatta | Skipper | A | 3 | 13.0 | 0.80 |
| VISA Christchurch Fleet Regatta | Skipper | B | 2 | 6.5 | 1.78 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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