| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Christchurch School | Seahorses 1 | 10–0 |
| 2 |  |
Hampton Roads Academy | Navigators 1 | 9–1 |
| 3 |  |
Norfolk Academy | Bulldogs 1 | 6–4 |
| 4 |  |
Norfolk Collegiate School | Oaks 1 | 4–6 |
| 5 | |
Christchurch School | Seahorses 2 | 8–2 |
| 6 | |
Norfolk Collegiate School | Oaks 2 | 5–5 |
| 7 | |
Christchurch School | Seahorses 3 | 5–5 |
| 8 | |
Norfolk Academy | Bulldogs 2 | 3–7 |
| 9 |  |
Maury High School | Commodores | 3–7 |
| 10 | |
Hampton Roads Academy | Navigators 2 | 2–8 |
| 11 |  |
The Hague School | Tritons | 0–10 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 11,676 team race matches sailed before 2024-10-05, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 14 of 15 matches (93%) with a log-loss of 0.353 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.21 ± 0.59: a typical event, more orderly than 56% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2 | 2.57 | 5.74 | 4–1 | 2.1 | +3.18 | 3.2 | 5% |
| 5 | Christchurch School Seahorses 2 | 6.31 | 9.31 | 5–0 | 4.6 | ≥+3.00 | 0.5 | 68% |
| 10 | Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 2 | 2.30 | 2.41 | 2–3 | 1.9 | +0.11 | 0.0 | 68% |
| 7 | Christchurch School Seahorses 3 | 4.23 | 3.48 | 3–2 | 3.4 | −0.75 | 0.2 | 88% |
| 8 | Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 2 | 2.88 | 0.71 | 1–4 | 2.2 | −2.16 | 1.3 | 98% |
| 11 | The Hague School Tritons | 0.71 | -2.29 | 0–5 | 0.7 | ≤−3.00 | 1.1 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Duhon Kovach | Norfolk Collegiate School | 0.60 | 3.78 | 4–1 | 2.1 | +3.18 | 3.2 | 5% |
| Brandt Adams | Norfolk Collegiate School | 1.51 | 4.68 | 4–1 | 2.1 | +3.18 | 3.2 | 5% |
| Madeline Janzen | Christchurch School | 2.34 | 5.34 | 5–0 | 4.6 | ≥+3.00 | 0.5 | 68% |
| Wyatt Lipp | Christchurch School | 1.83 | 4.83 | 5–0 | 4.6 | ≥+3.00 | 0.5 | 68% |
| Jesse Hanenburg | Norfolk Collegiate School | 0.85 | 2.90 | 2–1 | 1.2 | +2.05 | 0.9 | 36% |
| Charlie Moore | Hampton Roads Academy | 1.05 | 1.16 | 2–3 | 1.9 | +0.11 | 0.0 | 68% |
| Madeline Monteith | Hampton Roads Academy | 0.51 | 0.62 | 2–3 | 1.9 | +0.11 | 0.0 | 68% |
| Gp Keating | Christchurch School | 1.59 | 0.85 | 3–2 | 3.4 | −0.75 | 0.2 | 88% |
| Duncan Hardy | Christchurch School | 1.21 | 0.46 | 3–2 | 3.4 | −0.75 | 0.2 | 88% |
| Andrew Allgeier | Norfolk Academy | 1.44 | -0.39 | 1–3 | 1.8 | −1.83 | 0.8 | 97% |
| Margaret Poston | Norfolk Academy | 1.07 | -1.10 | 1–4 | 2.2 | −2.16 | 1.3 | 98% |
| Nathan Libby | The Hague School | 0.27 | -2.73 | 0–5 | 0.7 | ≤−3.00 | 1.1 | >99% |
| Elias Bowes | The Hague School | -0.44 | -3.44 | 0–3 | 0.2 | ≤−3.00 | 0.2 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Navigators 2 | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Tritons | 2-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Seahorses 3 | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs 2 | 2-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Navigators 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Commodores | 3-4-5 |
| 4 | |
Bulldogs 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Oaks 1 | 3-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Oaks 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Navigators 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Commodores | 3-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Navigators 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulldogs 1 | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Oaks 2 | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Tritons | 1-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahorses 3 | 3-4-5 |
| 11 | |
Oaks 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Commodores | 3-4-5 |
| 12 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Navigators 1 | 2-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Oaks 2 | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs 2 | 1-4-6 |
| 14 | |
Seahorses 3 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Navigators 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 15 | |
Bulldogs 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Commodores | 4-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Oaks 1 | 3-4-6 |
| 17 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tritons | 4-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Oaks 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahorses 3 | 3-4-6 |
| 19 | |
Navigators 1 | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Oaks 1 | 2-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulldogs 1 | 4-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Bulldogs 2 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Tritons | 3-4-5 |
| 22 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Navigators 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Seahorses 3 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tritons | 4-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Oaks 2 | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Navigators 2 | 2-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Commodores | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Tritons | 3-4-6 |
| 27 | |
Navigators 1 | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Seahorses 3 | 2-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Oaks 1 | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Navigators 2 | 2-4-5 |
| 29 | |
Bulldogs 1 | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Oaks 2 | 2-4-5 |
| 30 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulldogs 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Commodores | 3-4-5 |
| 32 | |
Navigators 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Tritons | 3-5-6 |
| 33 | |
Seahorses 3 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Oaks 1 | 3-4-6 |
| 34 | |
Bulldogs 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Navigators 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 35 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Oaks 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 36 | |
Bulldogs 2 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Commodores | 1-5-6 |
| 37 | |
Navigators 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahorses 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 38 | |
Oaks 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tritons | 4-5-6 |
| 39 | |
Seahorses 3 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs 1 | 3-4-6 |
| 40 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Navigators 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 41 | |
Oaks 2 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Commodores | 3-4-5 |
| 42 | |
Navigators 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 43 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Oaks 1 | 4-5-6 |
| 44 | |
Bulldogs 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tritons | 4-5-6 |
| 45 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahorses 3 | 3-4-6 |
| 46 | |
Commodores | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Navigators 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 47 | |
Navigators 1 | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Oaks 2 | 2-5-6 |
| 48 | |
Bulldogs 2 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Oaks 1 | 1-5-6 |
| 49 | |
Seahorses 2 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs 1 | 1-5-6 |
| 50 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tritons | 4-5-6 |
| 51 | |
Commodores | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahorses 3 | 3-4-5 |
| 52 | |
Navigators 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Navigators 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 53 | |
Oaks 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Oaks 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 54 | |
Bulldogs 1 | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Bulldogs 2 | 2-4-5 |
| 55 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahorses 2 | 4-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Christchurch School | Seahorses 2 | Madeline Janzen '25 Tom Seibold '26 Wyatt Lipp '28 |
Bennett Moss '26 Selena Vu '27 Cindy Zhang '28 |
|
Norfolk Collegiate School | Oaks 2 | Brandt Adams '28 Chase Duhon Kovach '29 Graham Stevens '28 Jesse Hanenburg '30 |
Phoenix Weaver '27 Tucker Peltier '26 Corrine Todd '28 Adam Hauselman '30 |
|
Christchurch School | Seahorses 3 | Duncan Hardy '27 Gp Keating '27 Jackson Mcgrady '26 |
Minh Tho Nguyen '26 Millicent Branflick '26 Carly Moss '28 |
|
Norfolk Academy | Bulldogs 2 | Andrew Allgeier '30 Emma Tartiere-Martinez '28 Grant Fernandez '27 Margaret Poston '28 Vera Hartz '26 |
David Martin '26 Addie Lesley '26 Amanda Wong '25 Will Poynter '27 |
|
Hampton Roads Academy | Navigators 2 | Charlie Moore '27 Madeline Monteith '29 Sarah Moore '29 |
Patrick Bielewicz '28 Jack Duggan '28 Sam Fox-Goens '28 |
|
The Hague School | Tritons | Caspian Collett '25 Elias Bowes '27 Levi Stillman '25 Nathan Libby '26 Samuel Rogge '28 |
Rylie Bowen '27 Aline Hughes '30 Elias Bowes '27 Aniyah Lang '28 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
