Christchurch School '26
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.79 (fleet 2.91) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.02 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 8–3 (73%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2024 | 2 | 8–3 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (11 matches) the record is 8–3 against 8.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.8). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-08 | VISA Christchurch School Team Race | skipper | 1.98 | -0.53 | 3–3 | 4.2 | −2.51 | 1.8 | 99% |
| 2024-10-05 | VISA Team race Championship | skipper | 1.76 | 4.76 | 5–0 | 4.6 | ≥+3.00 | 0.5 | 68% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| VISA Team race Championship | Skipper | TR | 10 | 80% | — |
| VISA Poquoson Fleet Race Regatta | Skipper | A | 4 | 3.2 | 2.40 |
| VISA Fleet Championship | Skipper | A | 7 | 1.9 | 4.13 |
| VISA Cox, Cath, PC Varsity Fleet Regatta | Skipper | A | 6 | 1.3 | 4.63 |
| VISA Christchurch School Team Race | Skipper | TR | 6 | 50% | — |
| VISA Christchurch School | Skipper | A | 5 | 5.0 | 2.69 |
| VISA Christchurch Race Day | Skipper | A | 4 | 5.8 | 2.43 |
| VISA Christchurch Halloween Race Day | Skipper | A | 6 | 6.5 | 1.95 |
| MASSA Fall Invitational | Skipper | A | 10 | 3.8 | 2.56 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Tom Seibold |  H. B. Plant High School |
'25 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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