VISA Christchurch Race Day

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 6 12 12
2 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 13 13
3 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 4 16 16
4 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 3 17 17
5 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 5 19 19
6 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 9 23 23
7 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 7 26 26
8 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 10 30 30
9 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 15 37 37
10 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 14 42 42
11 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 13 49 49
12 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 11 51 51
13 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 8 51 51
14 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 51 51
15 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 12 54 54
16 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 17 59 59
17 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 18 63 63
18 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 16 71 71
19 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 19 76 76
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 6 5 4 1 2 12 Wylder Smith '27
Malia Deane '25
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 1 2 6 4 13 No Show
No Show
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 4 4 9 2 1 16 Bo Angus '25
Brooke Mertz '26
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 3 2 7 3 5 17 No Show
No Show
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 5 3 1 7 8 19 Elliott Lipp '26
Suzie Nguyen '25
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 9 6 5 5 7 23 Tom Seibold '26
Cherry Phan '25
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 7 16 3 4 3 26 Madeline Janzen '25
Bennett Moss '26
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 10 10 6 8 6 30 Gp Keating '27
Millicent Branflick '26
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 15 7 8 11 11 37 Adelaide Matzky '25
Eleanor Lorenzen '28
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 14 9 14 10 9 42 Simone Moss '25
Emma Ho '25
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 13 13 11 13 12 49 Chloe Shurr '25
Olivia Wolff '27
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 11 11 12 18 10 51 Duncan Hardy '27
Minh Tho Nguyen '26
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 8 12 13 12 14 51 Wyatt Lipp '28
Cindy Zhang '28
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 17 10 9 15 51 No Show
No Show
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 12 8 16 14 16 54 Jackson Mcgrady '26
Carly Moss '28
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 17 14 17 15 13 59 Pierson Teer '27
Ayden Claussen '28
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 18 15 15 16 17 63 Jacob Carey '26
Brock Miller '28
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 16 18 18 17 18 71 Nicholas Cromartie '27
Selena Vu '27
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 19 19 19 19 19 76 Kaia Deane '28
Rivers Hickey '28
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.100+0.10
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2024 (4 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 11111
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 1010101010
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 1111111111
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 1212121212
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 1313131313
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 1414141414
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 1515151515
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 1616161616
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 1717171717
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 1818181818
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 1919191919
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 22222
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 33333
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 44444
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 55555
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 66666
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 77777
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 88888
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 99999

Conditions — 10/03/2024 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Partly cloudy
Humidity 72%  ·  Pressure 1020.1 hPa

Temperature

72°F
↑ 76°F   ↓ 63°F
Feels like 75°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
2.2 kn
avg  ·  max 2.8 kn
Gusts to 9.3 kn
From ENE (73°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover70% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity72% Pressure1020.1 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Christchurch: a typical day (−0.02)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment −0.02 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.04
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.26 ± 0.16)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Christchurch by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 7 labelled days at Christchurch, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →