VISA Christchurch School

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 10 10
2 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 12 12
3 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 4 17 17
4 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 3 19 19
5 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 5 25 25
6 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 6 31 31
7 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 9 37 37
8 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 7 38 38
9 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 11 46 46
10 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 10 56 56
11 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 8 57 57
12 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 13 61 61
13 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 12 62 62
14 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 15 64 64
15 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 14 65 65
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 2 1 3 2 2 10 Wylder Smith '27
Malia Deane '25
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 1 2 1 4 4 12 Bo Angus '25
Brooke Mertz '26
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 4 3 6 4 3 1 17 Elliott Lipp '26
Suzie Nguyen '25
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 3 4 4 2 1 8 19 Madeline Janzen '25
Bennett Moss '26
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 5 5 3 5 9 3 25 Tom Seibold '26
Cherry Phan '25
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 6 7 5 6 8 5 31 Wyatt Lipp '28
Cindy Zhang '28
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 9 6 10 7 7 7 37 Duncan Hardy '27
Emma Ho '25
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 7 8 8 8 5 9 38 Gp Keating '27
Olivia Wolff '27
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 11 10 9 11 10 6 46 Chloe Shurr '25
Olwen Nguyen '27
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 10 9 7 15 13 12 56 Simone Moss '25
Minh Tho Nguyen '26
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 8 13 14 9 6 15 57 Jackson Mcgrady '26
Carly Moss '28
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 13 15 11 12 12 11 61 Kaia Deane '28
Rivers Hickey '28
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 12 11 12 14 11 14 62 Pierson Teer '27
Brock Miller '28
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 15 14 13 13 14 10 64 Jacob Carey '26
Eleanor Lorenzen '28
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 14 12 15 10 15 13 65 Nicholas Cromartie '27
Justice Timberlake '25
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.060+0.06
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (8 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 111111
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 101010101010
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 111212121212
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 121313131313
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 131414141414
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 141515151515
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 151616161616
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 222222
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 333333
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 444444
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 555555
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 666666
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 777777
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 888888
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 999999

Conditions — 10/17/2024 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 54%  ·  Pressure 1023.7 hPa

Temperature

55°F
↑ 59°F   ↓ 47°F
Feels like 48°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.0 kn
avg  ·  max 9.3 kn
Gusts to 22.5 kn
From NNW (337°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover46% Sunshine10.2 hrs Humidity54% Pressure1023.7 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Christchurch School: a favourites’ day (+0.08)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment −0.02 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast +0.07
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.17 ± 0.17)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Christchurch School by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (25 labelled days at Christchurch School).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →