VISA Cox, Cath, PC Varsity Fleet Regatta

HostCatholic HS/Frank W. Cox/Peninsula Catholic
Date10/19/2024
TypeIn-League
BoatCFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Christchurch School	Seahorses 1	8	11	19
2	Maury High School	Commodores 1	25	10	35
3	Christchurch School	Seahorses 2	22	40	62
4	Kecoughtan High School	Warriors	30	39	69
5	Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks	54	25	79
6	Christchurch School	Seahorses 3	36	50	86
7	Grafton High School	Clippers	50	42	92
8	York High School	Falcons	65	34	99
9	Heritage High School - VA	Heritage - VA	45	55	100
10	Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs	53	63	116
11	The Hague School	Tritons	57	65	122
12	Peninsula Catholic High School	Knights	57	73	130
13	Frank W. Cox High School	Falcons	76	61	137
14	Poquoson High School	Islanders	72	84	156
15	Maury High School	Commodores 2	94 MRP	100 MRP	194 MRP
16	Catholic High School	Crusaders	108 MRP	89	197 MRP

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT	Sailors
Christchurch School	Seahorses 1	2	1	1	2	1	1	8	Tom Seibold '26 Cherry Phan '25
Christchurch School	Seahorses 2	6	2	5	3	2	4	22	Gp Keating '27 Olivia Wolff '27
Maury High School	Commodores 1	1	3	7	1	7	6	25	Tucker Mcgrady '26 Madeline Ballard '25
Kecoughtan High School	Warriors	4	5	2	4	4	11	30	Caleb Kyle '25 Brooklynn Maranto '28
Christchurch School	Seahorses 3	10	10	3	6	5	2	36	Duncan Hardy '27 Emma Ho '25
Heritage High School - VA	Heritage - VA	5	12	9	10	6	3	45	Angelo Bellecci '25 Piper Cartwright '27
Grafton High School	Clippers	13	6	8	8	8	7	50	Grif Mahan '25 Mollie Beth Andrews '25
Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs	7	7	16	5	10	8	53	Mady Mcgee '27 [1-2, 5-6] Grant Fernandez '27 [3-4] Owen Peluso '26 [1-2, 5-6] Will Poynter '27 [3-4]
Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks	14	4	6	16	9	5	54	Chase Duhon Kovach '29 Willow Wheeler '27
Peninsula Catholic High School	Knights	3	14	13	11	3	13	57	Madison Bivins '25 Aidan Murphy '25
The Hague School	Tritons	9	8	4	7	15	14	57	Nathan Libby '26 Aniyah Lang '28
York High School	Falcons	11	9	12	12	11	10	65	Liam Burke '27 Savannah Vancleave '25
Poquoson High School	Islanders	12	15	BKD	BKD	BKD	9	72	Hunter Walton '25 Akito Leslie '26
Frank W. Cox High School	Falcons	16	11	11	14	12	12	76	Thatcher Elliott '27 [1-6] Ashlynn Kopaskey '25 [1-4] Olivia Jensen '27 [5-6]
Maury High School	Commodores 2	8	13	10	9	DNS	DNS	94 MRP	Lillian Rippel '25 Annika Fox '27
Catholic High School	Crusaders	15	16	14	15	13	15	108 MRP	Hunter Heckman '26 [1, 3] Sebastian Rodriguez '25 [2, 4-6] Sebastian Rodriguez '25 [1, 3] Hunter Heckman '26 [2, 4-6]

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT	Sailors
Maury High School	Commodores 1	3	1	1	2	1	2	10	Emily Priest '25 [1-6] Lenox Wakefield '27 [1-4] Madeline Ballard '25 [5-6]
Christchurch School	Seahorses 1	1	2	2	3	2	1	11	Wyatt Lipp '28 Cindy Zhang '28
Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks	2	9	3	1	3	7	25	Jesse Hanenburg '30 Adam Hauselman '30
York High School	Falcons	5	6	8	4	6	5	34	Dylan Thomas '28 Tyler Compton '28
Kecoughtan High School	Warriors	7	4	6	6	5	11	39	Kieran Mason '26 Lillian Melzer '30
Christchurch School	Seahorses 2	9	3	4	7	7	10	40	Jackson Mcgrady '26 Carly Moss '28
Grafton High School	Clippers	6	7	12	5	4	8	42	Felix Susta '27 Ezekiel Hurst '25
Christchurch School	Seahorses 3	4	DSQ	9	9	8	3	50	Carlos Ruiz Ibanez '27 Eleanor Lorenzen '28
Heritage High School - VA	Heritage - VA	13	8	5	13	12	4	55	Chase Young '28 [1-6] Tyler Slemp '25 [1-2, 5-6] Ryan Stokes '28 [3-4]
Frank W. Cox High School	Falcons	11	11	10	14	9	6	61	Thatcher Elliott '27 [1-6] Stephen Utley '27 [1-4] Olivia Jensen '27 [5-6]
Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs	12	5	16	11	10	9	63	Vera Hartz '26 [1-2, 5-6] Emma Tartiere-Martinez '28 [3-4] Juliana Libby '28 [1-2, 5-6]
The Hague School	Tritons	8	12	13	10	11	BKD	65	Levi Stillman '25 Aline Hughes '30
Peninsula Catholic High School	Knights	14	10	7	8	DNS	DNS	73	Elias Bowes '27 [1-6] Genevieve Collett '25 [1-2, 5-6] Colin Moorhouse '27 [3-4]
Poquoson High School	Islanders	16	14	14	BKD	13	13	84	Raquel Theriault '26 Rozlyn Theriault '29
Catholic High School	Crusaders	15	15	15	16	14	14	89	Brandon Skaredoff '27 Noah Webber '26
Maury High School	Commodores 2	10	13	11	12	DNS	DNS	100 MRP	Samuel Rogge '28 Rylie Bowen '27

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.060+0.06

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2024 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A
Catholic High School Crusaders	8	8	8	8	8	8
Christchurch School Seahorses 1	13	13	13	13	13	13
Christchurch School Seahorses 2	14	14	14	14	14	14
Christchurch School Seahorses 3	15	15	15	15	15	15
Frank W. Cox High School Falcons	5	5	5	5	5	5
Grafton High School Clippers	12	12	12	12	12	12
Heritage High School - VA Heritage - VA	6	6	6	6	6	6
Kecoughtan High School Warriors	7	7	7	7	7	7
Maury High School Commodores 1	2	2	2	2	2	2
Maury High School Commodores 2	3	3	3	3	3	3
Norfolk Academy Bulldogs	9	9	9	9	9	9
Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks	18	18	18	18	18	18
Peninsula Catholic High School Knights	4	4	4	4	4	4
Poquoson High School Islanders	10	10	10	10	10	10
The Hague School Tritons	1	1	1	1	1	1
York High School Falcons	11	11	11	11	11	11

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B
Catholic High School Crusaders	8	8	8	8	8	8
Christchurch School Seahorses 1	13	13	13	13	13	13
Christchurch School Seahorses 2	14	14	14	14	14	14
Christchurch School Seahorses 3	15	15	15	15	15	15
Frank W. Cox High School Falcons	5	5	5	5	5	5
Grafton High School Clippers	12	12	12	12	12	12
Heritage High School - VA Heritage - VA	6	6	6	6	6	6
Kecoughtan High School Warriors	7	7	7	7	7	7
Maury High School Commodores 1	2	2	2	2	2	2
Maury High School Commodores 2	3	3	3	3	3	3
Norfolk Academy Bulldogs	9	9	9	9	9	9
Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks	18	18	18	18	18	18
Peninsula Catholic High School Knights	4	4	4	4	4	4
Poquoson High School Islanders	10	10	10	10	10	10
The Hague School Tritons	1	1	1	1	1	1
York High School Falcons	11	11	11	11	11	11

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Catholic High School	Hunter Heckman '26 [1, 3] Sebastian Rodriguez '25 [2, 4-6]	Sebastian Rodriguez '25 [1, 3] Hunter Heckman '26 [2, 4-6]
Crusaders	Brandon Skaredoff '27	Noah Webber '26
Christchurch School	Tom Seibold '26	Cherry Phan '25
Seahorses 1	Wyatt Lipp '28	Cindy Zhang '28
Christchurch School	Gp Keating '27	Olivia Wolff '27
Seahorses 2	Jackson Mcgrady '26	Carly Moss '28
Christchurch School	Duncan Hardy '27	Emma Ho '25
Seahorses 3	Carlos Ruiz Ibanez '27	Eleanor Lorenzen '28
Frank W. Cox High School	Thatcher Elliott '27 [1-6]	Ashlynn Kopaskey '25 [1-4] Olivia Jensen '27 [5-6]
Falcons	Thatcher Elliott '27 [1-6]	Stephen Utley '27 [1-4] Olivia Jensen '27 [5-6]
Grafton High School	Grif Mahan '25	Mollie Beth Andrews '25
Clippers	Felix Susta '27	Ezekiel Hurst '25
Heritage High School - VA	Angelo Bellecci '25	Piper Cartwright '27
Heritage - VA	Chase Young '28 [1-6]	Tyler Slemp '25 [1-2, 5-6] Ryan Stokes '28 [3-4]
Kecoughtan High School	Caleb Kyle '25	Brooklynn Maranto '28
Warriors	Kieran Mason '26	Lillian Melzer '30
Maury High School	Tucker Mcgrady '26	Madeline Ballard '25
Commodores 1	Emily Priest '25 [1-6]	Lenox Wakefield '27 [1-4] Madeline Ballard '25 [5-6]
Maury High School	Lillian Rippel '25	Annika Fox '27
Commodores 2	Samuel Rogge '28	Rylie Bowen '27
Norfolk Academy	Mady Mcgee '27 [1-2, 5-6] Grant Fernandez '27 [3-4]	Owen Peluso '26 [1-2, 5-6] Will Poynter '27 [3-4]
Bulldogs	Vera Hartz '26 [1-2, 5-6] Emma Tartiere-Martinez '28 [3-4]	Juliana Libby '28 [1-2, 5-6]
Norfolk Collegiate School	Chase Duhon Kovach '29	Willow Wheeler '27
Oaks	Jesse Hanenburg '30	Adam Hauselman '30
Peninsula Catholic High School	Madison Bivins '25	Aidan Murphy '25
Knights	Elias Bowes '27 [1-6]	Genevieve Collett '25 [1-2, 5-6] Colin Moorhouse '27 [3-4]
Poquoson High School	Hunter Walton '25	Akito Leslie '26
Islanders	Raquel Theriault '26	Rozlyn Theriault '29
The Hague School	Nathan Libby '26	Aniyah Lang '28
Tritons	Levi Stillman '25	Aline Hughes '30
York High School	Liam Burke '27	Savannah Vancleave '25
Falcons	Dylan Thomas '28	Tyler Compton '28

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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VISA Cox, Cath, PC Varsity Fleet Regatta

Division A

Division B

From the notes