Norfolk Collegiate School '29
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.83 (fleet 1.30) | 169 of 231 | +0.03 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 26–24 (52%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 2 | 9–2 | — |
| Fall 2025 | 3 | 10–15 | — |
| Spring 2025 | 4 | 7–7 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 9 graded regattas (50 matches) the record is 26–24 against 24.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.5). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 12 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | VISA Patterson Trophy and Team race Champs | skipper | 1.24 | 4.71 | 6–1 | 3.6 | +3.47 | 4.2 | 3% |
| 2026-03-21 | VISA CCS Team Race Regatta | skipper | 1.10 | 5.88 | 3–1 | 1.8 | +4.78 | 3.6 | 4% |
| 2025-10-11 | VISA Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.27 | 0.95 | 6–7 | 6.4 | −0.32 | 0.1 | 77% |
| 2025-10-04 | VISA NCS Team Regatta I | skipper | 0.96 | 1.92 | 3–1 | 2.7 | +0.96 | 0.2 | 64% |
| 2025-09-20 | VISA HCS Team Race Regatta | skipper | 1.33 | -0.94 | 1–7 | 2.9 | −2.27 | 2.2 | 99% |
| 2025-04-19 | VISA Team Race Championship for Patterson Trophy | skipper | 1.29 | 4.29 | 3–0 | 2.5 | ≥+3.00 | 0.7 | 60% |
| 2025-04-05 | VISA HRA Team Race Regatta | skipper | 1.28 | -1.72 | 0–3 | 0.3 | ≤−3.00 | 0.4 | >99% |
| 2025-03-29 | VISA Poquoson Team Race Regatta | skipper | 1.28 | 2.13 | 4–1 | 3.7 | +0.85 | 0.1 | 69% |
| 2025-03-20 | VISA Southside Team Race Series #1 | skipper | 1.26 | -1.74 | 0–3 | 0.4 | ≤−3.00 | 0.6 | >99% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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