| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Christchurch School | Seahorses One 1 | 4–0 |
| 2 |  |
Norfolk Collegiate School | Oaks | 3–1 |
| 3 |  |
Norfolk Academy | Bulldogs One 1 | 2–2 |
| 4 |  |
Hampton Roads Academy | Navigators | 1–3 |
| 5 | |
Norfolk Academy | Bulldogs One 2 | 0–0 |
| 5 | |
Christchurch School | Seahorses One 2 | 0–0 |
| 5 | |
Christchurch School | Seahorses One 3 | 0–0 |
| 5 | |
Christchurch School | Seahorses One 4 | 0–0 |
| 9 |  |
Maury High School | Commodores | 0–4 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 13,045 team race matches sailed before 2026-03-21, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 9 of 10 matches (90%) with a log-loss of 0.393 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness −0.83 ± 0.68: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 10% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks | 3.53 | 8.21 | 3–1 | 1.8 | +4.68 | 3.5 | 5% |
| 1 | Christchurch School Seahorses One 1 | 7.75 | 10.75 | 4–0 | 3.8 | ≥+3.00 | 0.3 | 77% |
| 4 | Hampton Roads Academy Navigators | 2.58 | 2.71 | 1–3 | 1.0 | +0.13 | 0.0 | 79% |
| 3 | Norfolk Academy Bulldogs One 1 | 6.02 | 3.07 | 2–2 | 3.0 | −2.95 | 2.0 | 99% |
| 9 | Maury High School Commodores | 1.61 | -1.39 | 0–4 | 0.4 | ≤−3.00 | 0.6 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Duhon-Kovach | Norfolk Collegiate School | 1.21 | 5.89 | 3–1 | 1.8 | +4.68 | 3.5 | 5% |
| Wylder Smith | Christchurch School | 2.79 | 5.79 | 4–0 | 3.8 | ≥+3.00 | 0.3 | 77% |
| Wyatt Lipp | Christchurch School | 2.19 | 5.19 | 4–0 | 3.8 | ≥+3.00 | 0.3 | 77% |
| Charlie Moore | Hampton Roads Academy | 1.26 | 1.39 | 1–3 | 1.0 | +0.13 | 0.0 | 79% |
| Madeline Monteith | Hampton Roads Academy | 0.79 | 0.91 | 1–3 | 1.0 | +0.13 | 0.0 | 79% |
| Samuel Rogge | Maury High School | 0.57 | -2.43 | 0–4 | 0.4 | ≤−3.00 | 0.6 | >99% |
| Grant Fernandez | Norfolk Academy | 1.05 | -2.56 | 1–2 | 2.1 | −3.61 | 2.5 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Christchurch School Seahorses One 1 | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks | 99% | |
| 1 | 2 | Norfolk Academy Bulldogs One 1 | Hampton Roads Academy Navigators | 93% | |
| 1 | 3 | Christchurch School Seahorses One 1 | Maury High School Commodores | 99% | |
| 1 | 4 | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks | Norfolk Academy Bulldogs One 1 | 5% | upset |
| 1 | 5 | Hampton Roads Academy Navigators | Maury High School Commodores | 73% | |
| 1 | 6 | Christchurch School Seahorses One 1 | Norfolk Academy Bulldogs One 1 | 80% | |
| 1 | 7 | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks | Hampton Roads Academy Navigators | 86% | |
| 1 | 8 | Norfolk Academy Bulldogs One 1 | Maury High School Commodores | 97% | |
| 1 | 9 | Christchurch School Seahorses One 1 | Hampton Roads Academy Navigators | 98% | |
| 1 | 10 | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks | Maury High School Commodores | 91% |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Seahorses One 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Oaks | 3-4-5 |
| 2 | |
Bulldogs One 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Navigators | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Seahorses One 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Commodores | 3-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Oaks | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs One 1 | 1-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Navigators | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Commodores | 2-3-6 |
| 6 | |
Seahorses One 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulldogs One 1 | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Oaks | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Navigators | 1-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Bulldogs One 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Commodores | 3-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Seahorses One 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Navigators | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Oaks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Commodores | 3-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Christchurch School | Seahorses One 1 | Elliott Lipp '26 Wyatt Lipp '28 Wylder Smith '27 |
Cara Moss '26 Rivers Hickey '28 Henry Clair '29 |
|
Norfolk Collegiate School | Oaks | Anna Lenox '28 Brandt Adams '30 Chase Duhon-Kovach '29 Finian Bohan '27 Jesse Hanenburg '30 |
Corinne Todd '28 Tucker Peltier '26 Finian Bohan '27 Michael Wattenbarger '27 |
|
Norfolk Academy | Bulldogs One 1 | Eliana Mopper '26 Grant Fernandez '27 James Allgeier '27 Margaret Poston '28 |
Juliana Libby '28 Jane Earp '27 Addie Lesley '26 |
|
Hampton Roads Academy | Navigators | Charlie Moore '27 Madeline Monteith '29 Nicholas Bielewicz '26 |
Daphne Ambrosino '27 Patrick Bielewicz '28 Josie Brindley '26 |
|
Maury High School | Commodores | Lenox Wakefield '27 Ryan Mouak '28 Samuel Rogge '28 Tucker Mcgrady '26 |
Ryan Mouak '28 Lenox Wakefield '27 Colin Moorhouse '27 Cooper Longhini '28 Kaelynn Valencia '27 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
