Norfolk Collegiate School '28
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.38 (fleet 0.49) | 211 of 231 | +0.07 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 28–28 (50%) as crew 3–3 (50%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 2 | 7–2 | — |
| Fall 2025 | 2 | 7–10 | — |
| Spring 2025 | 2 | 3–2 | — |
| Fall 2024 | 3 | 11–14 | — |
| Spring 2024 | 1 | — | 3–3 |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 8 graded regattas (58 matches) the record is 28–30 against 24.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+3.4). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 6 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | VISA Patterson Trophy and Team race Champs | skipper | 0.69 | 4.19 | 6–1 | 3.5 | +3.49 | 4.3 | 3% |
| 2025-10-11 | VISA Team Race Championship | skipper | 0.69 | 0.37 | 6–7 | 6.4 | −0.32 | 0.1 | 77% |
| 2025-09-20 | VISA HCS Team Race Regatta | skipper | 0.70 | -0.61 | 1–3 | 1.5 | −1.32 | 0.4 | 93% |
| 2025-03-20 | VISA Southside Team Race Series #1 | skipper | 0.52 | 0.90 | 1–2 | 0.9 | +0.38 | 0.0 | 74% |
| 2024-10-12 | MASSA Team Race Championship | skipper | 0.61 | 1.23 | 6–6 | 5.0 | +0.61 | 0.3 | 36% |
| 2024-09-28 | VISA HCS Team Race Regatta 2 | skipper | 0.37 | 2.35 | 1–4 | 0.3 | +1.98 | 0.8 | 30% |
| 2024-09-14 | VISA Hampton City Schools Team Race Regatta | skipper | 0.54 | 0.70 | 4–4 | 3.9 | +0.15 | 0.0 | 70% |
| 2024-04-20 | VISA Team Race Championship | crew | 1.91 | 1.80 | 3–3 | 3.1 | −0.11 | 0.0 | 79% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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