| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Hampton Roads Academy | Navigators | 3–0 |
| 2 |  |
Norfolk Academy | Bulldogs | 2–1 |
| 3 |  |
Norfolk Collegiate School | Oaks 1 | 1–2 |
| 4 | |
Norfolk Collegiate School | Oaks 2 | 0–3 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 11,770 team race matches sailed before 2025-03-20, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 5 of 6 matches (83%) with a log-loss of 0.293 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hampton Roads Academy Navigators | 2 | 6.48 school −0.40 | Parker Moore / Daphne Ambrosino 3.00 Leila Pfrang / Josie Brindley 2.61 2–0 Will Chapman / Patrick Bielewicz 1.29 2–0 Leila Pfrang / Patrick Bielewicz 2.36 1–0 Will Chapman / Nicholas Bielewicz 1.47 1–0 | 72% | 3–0 (100%) | +0.8 |
| 2 | Norfolk Academy Bulldogs | 1 | 7.21 school +0.30, home +0.19 | James Allgeier / Sabrina Casagrande 3.22 Eliana Mopper / Anna Iacobucci 1.75 Jack Poynter / Owen Peluso 1.74 | 84% | 2–1 (67%) | −0.5 |
| 3 | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 | 3 | 4.04 | Maddie Murphy / Emma Horton 2.19 Alex Salzberg / Michael Wattenbarger 1.35 Anna Lenox / Corrine Todd 0.52 | 29% | 1–2 (33%) | +0.1 |
| 4 | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2 | 4 | 3.09 | Chase Duhon-Kovach / Finian Bohan Jesse Hanenburg / Tucker Peltier 1.26 Tristan Hart / Mollie Armentrout | 14% | 0–3 (0%) | −0.4 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hampton Roads Academy Navigators | 6.48 | 9.48 | 3–0 | 2.2 | ≥+3.00 | 1.5 | 29% |
| 3 | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 | 4.04 | 4.42 | 1–2 | 0.9 | +0.38 | 0.0 | 74% |
| 2 | Norfolk Academy Bulldogs | 7.21 | 5.61 | 2–1 | 2.5 | −1.59 | 0.5 | 96% |
| 4 | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2 | 3.09 | 0.09 | 0–3 | 0.4 | ≤−3.00 | 0.6 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Chapman | Hampton Roads Academy | 1.29 | 4.29 | 3–0 | 2.2 | ≥+3.00 | 1.5 | 29% |
| Alex Salzberg | Norfolk Collegiate School | 1.35 | 1.73 | 1–2 | 0.9 | +0.38 | 0.0 | 74% |
| Anna Lenox | Norfolk Collegiate School | 0.52 | 0.90 | 1–2 | 0.9 | +0.38 | 0.0 | 74% |
| Chase Duhon-Kovach | Norfolk Collegiate School | 1.26 | -1.74 | 0–3 | 0.4 | ≤−3.00 | 0.6 | >99% |
| Jesse Hanenburg | Norfolk Collegiate School | 1.26 | -1.74 | 0–3 | 0.4 | ≤−3.00 | 0.6 | >99% |
| Tristan Hart | Norfolk Collegiate School | 0.58 | -2.42 | 0–3 | 0.4 | ≤−3.00 | 0.6 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Hampton Roads Academy Navigators | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2 | 94% | |
| 1 | 2 | Norfolk Academy Bulldogs | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 | 92% | |
| 1 | 3 | Hampton Roads Academy Navigators | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 | 87% | |
| 1 | 4 | Norfolk Academy Bulldogs | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2 | 96% | |
| 1 | 5 | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2 | 67% | |
| 1 | 6 | Hampton Roads Academy Navigators | Norfolk Academy Bulldogs | 35% | upset |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Navigators | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Oaks 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Oaks 1 | 3-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Navigators | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Oaks 1 | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Oaks 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Oaks 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Oaks 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 6 | |
Navigators | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Hampton Roads Academy | Navigators | Leila Pfrang '25 Parker Moore '25 Will Chapman '28 |
Josie Brindley '26 Patrick Bielewicz '28 Daphne Ambrosino '27 Nicholas Bielewicz '26 |
|
Norfolk Academy | Bulldogs | Eliana Mopper '26 Jack Poynter '25 James Allgeier '27 |
Anna Iacobucci '25 Owen Peluso '26 Sabrina Casagrande '25 |
|
Norfolk Collegiate School | Oaks 1 | Alex Salzberg '25 Anna Lenox '28 Maddie Murphy '25 |
Michael Wattenbarger '27 Corrine Todd '28 Emma Horton '25 |
|
Norfolk Collegiate School | Oaks 2 | Chase Duhon-Kovach '29 Jesse Hanenburg '30 Tristan Hart '29 |
Finian Bohan '27 Tucker Peltier '26 Mollie Armentrout '28 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.18 means a rating gap counts about 15% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
