Hampton Roads Academy '28
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.10 (fleet 1.75) | 140 of 231 | +0.01 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 28–21 (57%) as crew 3–4 (43%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 | 4 | 21–10 | 3–4 |
| Fall 2024 | 3 | 7–11 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 7 graded regattas (54 matches) the record is 29–25 against 29.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.6). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 7 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-17 | National Invitational Tournament | skipper | 1.40 | 1.48 | 10–8 | 9.7 | +0.09 | 0.0 | 54% |
| 2025-04-19 | VISA Team Race Championship for Patterson Trophy | skipper | 1.49 | 2.52 | 8–2 | 6.5 | +1.03 | 0.8 | 26% |
| 2025-04-05 | VISA HRA Team Race Regatta | crew | 2.42 | 0.59 | 1–4 | 2.0 | −1.83 | 0.9 | 97% |
| 2025-03-20 | VISA Southside Team Race Series #1 | skipper | 1.29 | 4.29 | 3–0 | 2.2 | ≥+3.00 | 1.5 | 29% |
| 2024-10-12 | MASSA Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.42 | 1.52 | 5–4 | 4.9 | +0.10 | 0.0 | 67% |
| 2024-09-28 | VISA HCS Team Race Regatta 2 | skipper | 1.19 | -1.34 | 1–2 | 1.8 | −2.53 | 1.0 | 99% |
| 2024-09-14 | VISA Hampton City Schools Team Race Regatta | skipper | 1.08 | -1.81 | 1–5 | 2.5 | −2.89 | 2.3 | 99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| VISA Team Race Championship for Patterson Trophy | Skipper | TR | 12 | 83% | — |
| VISA Maury Fleet Regatta | Skipper | A | 7 | 11.1 | -3.63 |
| VISA Kecoughtan Fleet Race Regatta | Skipper | B | 4 | 7.8 | 1.35 |
| VISA HRA Team Race Regatta | Crew | TR | 10 | 50% | — |
| VISA Fleet Race Championship | Skipper | B | 9 | 3.7 | 2.14 |
| VISA Christchurch Parents Weekend Fleet Regatta | Skipper | B | 6 | 2.8 | 3.06 |
| VISA CCS Fleet Regatta 1 | Skipper | B | 9 | 5.3 | 1.81 |
| VISA Southside Team Race Series #1 | Skipper | TR | 3 | 100% | — |
| National Invitational Tournament | Skipper | TR | 14 | 57% | — |
| MASSA Fleet Championship and Mallory Qualifier | Skipper | B | 8 | 10.8 | 1.33 |
| Fall 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| VISA Norfolk Academy Fleet Race | Skipper | B | 5 | 3.2 | 1.46 |
| VISA Maury/Granby Fleet Regatta | Skipper | A | 3 | 13.7 | 0.65 |
| VISA HCS Team Race Regatta 2 | Skipper | TR | 8 | 38% | — |
| VISA Hampton City Schools Team Race Regatta | Skipper | TR | 6 | 17% | — |
| VISA Christchurch Fleet Regatta | Skipper | B | 4 | 7.8 | 1.34 |
| MASSA Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 14 | 57% | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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