National Invitational Tournament

HostNorfolk Yacht and Country Club
Date05/17/2025
TypeNational Invitational
BoatCFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Greens Farms Academy	Dragons	13–1
2	Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs	10–4
3	Hampton Roads Academy	Navigators	8–6
4	The Stony Brook School	Bears	8–6
5	Arrowhead High School	Warhawks	6–8
6	Barrington High School	Eagles	5–9
7	Severna Park	Falcons	6–6
8	East Greenwich High School	Avengers	4–8
9	Gig Harbor High School	Tides	3–9
10	New Trier HS	Trevian	3–9

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 12,761 team race matches sailed before 2025-05-17, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 51 of 76 matches (67%) with a log-loss of 0.608 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness +0.85 ± 0.50: an orderly event, more orderly than 97% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Greens Farms Academy Dragons	2	5.43 school +0.08	Glen Foster / Colin Verrengia 1.84 Avery Beck / Caroline Collins 1.86 Emmet Ennico / Hayes Cooper 1.58	58%	13–1 (93%)	+4.9
2	Norfolk Academy Bulldogs	5	5.12	James Allgeier / Owen Peluso 2.96 Grant Fernandez / Sabrina Casagrande 1.05 Mady Mcgee / Will Poynter 0.91 5–4 Mady Mcgee / Jack Poynter 1.07 2–0 Jack Poynter / Will Poynter 1.46 2–0 Jack Poynter / Juliana Libby 1.38 1–0	51%	10–4 (71%)	+2.8
3	Hampton Roads Academy Navigators	3	5.39 school −0.40	Parker Moore / Daphne Ambrosino 2.99 9–7 Charlie Moore / Nicholas Bielewicz 1.24 6–6 Will Chapman / Patrick Bielewicz 1.40 3–5 Will Chapman / Josie Brindley 1.62 5–2 Charlie Moore / Josie Brindley 1.38 3–1 Will Chapman / Nicholas Bielewicz 1.49 2–1 Charlie Moore / Patrick Bielewicz 1.17 1–1 Parker Moore / Josie Brindley 3.14 1–1	54%	10–8 (56%)	+0.3
4	The Stony Brook School Bears	4	5.34 school −0.15	Arancha Rivero-Ansed / Jp Panebianco 2.08 Carlos Gonzalez / Kevin Kelly 1.63 9–4 Emily Gaillard / Joshua Henson 1.70 9–4 Carlos Gonzalez / Gisele Brandao 1.72 3–2 Emily Gaillard / Kevin Kelly 1.56 3–2	54%	12–6 (67%)	+2.3
5	Arrowhead High School Warhawks	7	5.05 school −0.09	John Lieber / Max Sellers 1.94 Nicholas Berkowitz / Jackson Bebeau 2.06 Cole Bebeau / Mark Sellers 0.94	48%	7–11 (39%)	−1.6
6	Barrington High School Eagles	1	5.72 school −0.20	Ben Reuter / Ezra White 1.63 Cal Naperotic / Kai Beland 1.54 6–6 Duffy Macaulay / Enzo Cicione 2.42 6–6 Cal Naperotic / Enzo Cicione 1.54 2–4 Duffy Macaulay / Kai Beland 2.59 2–4	62%	8–10 (44%)	−3.1
7	Severna Park Falcons	6	4.96 school −0.10	Peter Judge / Alexandria Still 2.08 5–9 Gavin Morris / William Albert 1.75 5–9 Robert Heath / Madison Cannon 1.32 5–7 Gavin Morris / Pierce Brenner 1.65 1–1 Peter Judge / Pierce Brenner 1.88 1–1 Pierce Brenner / Madison Cannon 0.76 0–2 Robert Heath / Pierce Brenner 1.13 1–1	50%	6–10 (38%)	−2.0
8	East Greenwich High School Avengers	8	4.41 school +0.83	Colin Auvil / Harper Kelley 1.64 Sophia Joyce / Isaac Kaldor 4–6 Griffin Mason / Davis Collette 4–6 Davis Collette / Isaac Kaldor 0–2 Griffin Mason / Aiden Krystoff 0–2	41%	4–8 (33%)	−1.0
9	Gig Harbor High School Tides	10	3.95	Nico Konyk / Nate Dietrich 1.02 Finn Deprez / Cameron Siegert 1.53 1–9 Bailey Rainbolt / Wesley Wysham 1.26 3–5 Bailey Rainbolt / Tru Jackson 1.31 0–4 Finn Deprez / Tru Jackson 1.80 2–0	32%	3–9 (25%)	−0.9
10	New Trier HS Trevian	9	4.33 school +0.19	Olivia Gingue / Bennett Waters 0.58 1–8 Aiala Angueira Salbidegoitia / Charles Dischner 1.63 2–5 Nathan Finkelstein / Paula Kowalczyk 1.68 2–5 Aiala Angueira Salbidegoitia / Amalia Lesterhuis 1.72 1–4 Nathan Finkelstein / Camila Benes 1.92 1–4 Ralph Lipford / Bennett Waters 2–1	41%	3–9 (25%)	−1.9

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Greens Farms Academy	5.43	8.40	13–1	8.0	+2.97	6.6	<1%
2	Norfolk Academy	5.12	6.28	10–4	7.2	+1.15	1.8	10%
4	The Stony Brook School	5.34	6.05	12–6	9.7	+0.71	0.9	19%
3	Hampton Roads Academy	5.39	5.47	10–8	9.7	+0.09	0.0	54%
8	East Greenwich High School	4.41	3.95	4–8	5.0	−0.46	0.2	81%
5	Arrowhead High School	5.05	4.58	7–11	8.6	−0.47	0.4	84%
9	Gig Harbor High School	3.95	3.47	3–9	3.9	−0.48	0.2	81%
7	Severna Park	4.96	4.29	6–10	8.0	−0.67	0.7	90%
6	Barrington High School	5.72	4.81	8–10	11.1	−0.91	1.6	96%
10	New Trier HS	4.33	3.36	3–9	4.9	−0.96	1.0	93%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Avery Beck	Greens Farms Academy	1.86	4.83	13–1	8.0	+2.97	6.6	<1%
Ralph Lipford	New Trier HS	0.70	2.10	2–1	1.2	+1.39	0.6	37%
Grant Fernandez	Norfolk Academy	1.05	2.20	10–4	7.2	+1.15	1.8	10%
Mady Mcgee	Norfolk Academy	0.91	1.66	7–4	5.5	+0.75	0.6	27%
Arancha Rivero-Ansed	The Stony Brook School	2.08	2.79	12–6	9.7	+0.71	0.9	19%
Carlos Gonzalez	The Stony Brook School	1.63	2.34	12–6	9.7	+0.71	0.9	19%
Charlie Moore	Hampton Roads Academy	1.24	1.33	10–8	9.7	+0.09	0.0	54%
Will Chapman	Hampton Roads Academy	1.40	1.48	10–8	9.7	+0.09	0.0	54%
Sophia Joyce	East Greenwich High School	0.76	0.56	4–6	4.4	−0.20	0.0	71%
Griffin Mason	East Greenwich High School	1.14	0.68	4–8	5.0	−0.46	0.2	81%
Nicholas Berkowitz	Arrowhead High School	2.06	1.59	7–11	8.6	−0.47	0.4	84%
Bailey Rainbolt	Gig Harbor High School	1.26	0.78	3–9	3.9	−0.48	0.2	81%
Ben Reuter	Barrington High School	1.63	0.72	8–10	11.1	−0.91	1.6	96%
Cal Naperotic	Barrington High School	1.54	0.63	8–10	11.1	−0.91	1.6	96%
Duffy Macaulay	Barrington High School	2.42	1.51	8–10	11.1	−0.91	1.6	96%
Aiala Angueira Salbidegoitia	New Trier HS	1.63	0.67	3–9	4.9	−0.96	1.0	93%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	The Stony Brook School	East Greenwich High School	67%
1	2	Norfolk Academy	Severna Park	57%
1	3	Barrington High School	New Trier HS	68%
1	4	Greens Farms Academy	Gig Harbor High School	77%
1	5	Hampton Roads Academy	East Greenwich High School	66%
1	6	Norfolk Academy	Arrowhead High School	55%
1	7	The Stony Brook School	New Trier HS	66%
1	8	Greens Farms Academy	Severna Park	56%
1	9	Hampton Roads Academy	Barrington High School	49%	upset
1	10	Arrowhead High School	Gig Harbor High School	69%
1	11	East Greenwich High School	New Trier HS	50%
1	12	Greens Farms Academy	Norfolk Academy	58%
1	13	Hampton Roads Academy	The Stony Brook School	53%
1	14	Severna Park	Arrowhead High School	53%
1	15	Barrington High School	East Greenwich High School	70%
1	16	Norfolk Academy	Gig Harbor High School	71%
1	17	Hampton Roads Academy	New Trier HS	69%
1	18	Greens Farms Academy	Arrowhead High School	58%
1	19	The Stony Brook School	Barrington High School	45%	upset
1	20	Severna Park	Gig Harbor High School	70%
1	21	Norfolk Academy	East Greenwich High School	67%
1	22	Greens Farms Academy	Hampton Roads Academy	53%
1	23	Arrowhead High School	New Trier HS	67%
1	24	Barrington High School	Gig Harbor High School	79%
1	25	Severna Park	The Stony Brook School	41%	upset
1	26	Greens Farms Academy	East Greenwich High School	74%
1	27	Norfolk Academy	Hampton Roads Academy	55%
1	28	Barrington High School	Arrowhead High School	63%
1	29	Gig Harbor High School	New Trier HS	49%	upset
1	30	Greens Farms Academy	The Stony Brook School	52%
1	31	East Greenwich High School	Severna Park	39%	upset
1	32	Arrowhead High School	Hampton Roads Academy	43%	upset
1	33	Norfolk Academy	New Trier HS	65%
1	34	The Stony Brook School	Gig Harbor High School	75%
1	35	Severna Park	Barrington High School	38%	upset
1	36	Arrowhead High School	East Greenwich High School	60%
1	37	Greens Farms Academy	New Trier HS	71%
1	38	Hampton Roads Academy	Gig Harbor High School	77%
1	39	Barrington High School	Norfolk Academy	64%
1	40	Arrowhead High School	The Stony Brook School	47%	upset
1	41	New Trier HS	Severna Park	47%	upset
1	42	East Greenwich High School	Gig Harbor High School	60%
1	43	Greens Farms Academy	Barrington High School	44%	upset
1	44	The Stony Brook School	Norfolk Academy	55%
1	45	Severna Park	Hampton Roads Academy	40%	upset
4	58	Gig Harbor High School	Severna Park	31%	upset
4	59	New Trier HS	East Greenwich High School	49%	upset
4	62	New Trier HS	Severna Park	47%	upset
4	63	East Greenwich High School	Gig Harbor High School	60%
4	66	Gig Harbor High School	New Trier HS	47%	upset
4	67	Severna Park	East Greenwich High School	61%
5	46	The Stony Brook School	Severna Park	59%
5	47	Hampton Roads Academy	Arrowhead High School	56%
5	48	Barrington High School	Severna Park	63%
5	49	The Stony Brook School	Arrowhead High School	53%
5	50	Hampton Roads Academy	Severna Park	59%
5	51	The Stony Brook School	Barrington High School	43%	upset
5	52	Arrowhead High School	Severna Park	50%	upset
5	53	Barrington High School	Hampton Roads Academy	56%
5	54	The Stony Brook School	Hampton Roads Academy	49%	upset
5	55	Barrington High School	Arrowhead High School	63%
6	56	Greens Farms Academy	Arrowhead High School	56%
6	57	Norfolk Academy	Hampton Roads Academy	55%
6	60	The Stony Brook School	Barrington High School	42%	upset
6	61	Hampton Roads Academy	Arrowhead High School	55%
6	64	The Stony Brook School	Greens Farms Academy	49%	upset
6	65	Norfolk Academy	Barrington High School	34%	upset
6	68	Hampton Roads Academy	The Stony Brook School	51%
6	69	Norfolk Academy	Arrowhead High School	50%
6	70	Greens Farms Academy	Barrington High School	42%	upset
6	71	Norfolk Academy	The Stony Brook School	45%	upset
6	72	Greens Farms Academy	Hampton Roads Academy	54%
6	73	Arrowhead High School	Barrington High School	36%	upset
6	74	Greens Farms Academy	Norfolk Academy	59%
6	75	The Stony Brook School	Arrowhead High School	53%
6	76	Hampton Roads Academy	Barrington High School	42%	upset

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Avengers	4-5-6
2	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Falcons	3-4-5
3	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Trevian	3-5-6
4	Dragons	2-3-4	def.	Tides	1-5-6
5	Navigators	1-2-4	def.	Avengers	3-5-6
6	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Warhawks	3-4-6
7	Bears	1-3-5	def.	Trevian	2-4-6
8	Dragons	1-2-3	def.	Falcons	4-5-6
9	Navigators	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6 DNS
10	Warhawks	1-2-6	def.	Tides	3-4-5
11	Avengers	1-2-6	def.	Trevian	3-4-5
12	Dragons	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs	4-5-6
13	Navigators	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
14	Falcons	2-3-4	def.	Warhawks	1-5-6
15	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Avengers	3-4-6 DNF
16	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Tides	3-4-6
17	Navigators	1-2-4	def.	Trevian	3-5-6
18	Dragons	1-2-3	def.	Warhawks	4-5-6
19	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6
20	Falcons	2-3-5	def.	Tides	1-4-6
21	Bulldogs	1-3-4	def.	Avengers	2-5-6
22	Dragons	1-2-3	def.	Navigators	4-5-6
23	Warhawks	1-2-5	def.	Trevian	3-4-6
24	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Tides	3-4-6
25	Falcons	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
26	Dragons	1-2-3	def.	Avengers	4-5-6
27	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Navigators	3-4-5
28	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Warhawks	3-4-5
29	Tides	1-2-4	def.	Trevian	3-5-6
30	Dragons	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
31	Avengers	2-3-4	def.	Falcons	1-5-6
32	Warhawks	1-3-5	def.	Navigators	2-4-6
33	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Trevian	3-5-6
34	Bears	2-3-5	def.	Tides	1-4-6
35	Falcons	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
36	Warhawks	1-3-5	def.	Avengers	2-4-6
37	Dragons	1-2-4	def.	Trevian	3-5-6
38	Navigators	1-2-4	def.	Tides	3-5-6
39	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
40	Warhawks	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
41	Trevian	1-2-5	def.	Falcons	3-4-6
42	Avengers	1-2-5	def.	Tides	3-4-6
43	Dragons	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6 DNF
44	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
45	Falcons	2-3-4	def.	Navigators	1-5-6
58	Tides	2-3-4	def.	Falcons	1-5-6
59	Trevian	2-3-4	def.	Avengers	1-5-6
62	Trevian	1-2-3	def.	Falcons	4-5-6
63	Avengers	2-3-4	def.	Tides	1-5-6
66	Tides	1-3-5	def.	Trevian	2-4-6
67	Falcons	1-3-4	def.	Avengers	2-5-6
46	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Falcons	3-5-6
47	Navigators	1-2-3	def.	Warhawks	4-5-6
48	Eagles	2-3-5	def.	Falcons	1-4-6
49	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Warhawks	3-4-6
50	Navigators	1-2-6	def.	Falcons	3-4-5
51	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
52	Warhawks	1-2-4	def.	Falcons	3-5-6
53	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Navigators	1-5-6
54	Bears	2-3-5	def.	Navigators	1-4-6
55	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Warhawks	3-4-5
56	Dragons	1-2-3	def.	Warhawks	4-5-6
57	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Navigators	3-4-5
60	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
61	Navigators	1-2-5	def.	Warhawks	3-4-6
64	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Dragons	3-5-6
65	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
68	Navigators	1-4-5	def.	Bears	2-3-6
69	Bulldogs	1-3-5	def.	Warhawks	2-4-6 DNF
70	Dragons	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
71	Bulldogs	1-3-6	def.	Bears	2-4-5
72	Dragons	2-3-4	def.	Navigators	1-5-6
73	Warhawks	1-3-4	def.	Eagles	2-5-6
74	Dragons	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
75	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Warhawks	3-4-6
76	Navigators	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Greens Farms Academy	Dragons	Avery Beck '27 Emmet Ennico '25 Glen Foster '26	Caroline Collins '26 Hayes Cooper '27 Colin Verrengia '27
Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs	Grant Fernandez '27 Jack Poynter '25 James Allgeier '27 Mady Mcgee '27	Sabrina Casagrande '25 Juliana Libby '28 Will Poynter '27 Owen Peluso '26 Jack Poynter '25
Hampton Roads Academy	Navigators	Charlie Moore '27 Parker Moore '25 Will Chapman '28	Nicholas Bielewicz '26 Patrick Bielewicz '28 Josie Brindley '26 Daphne Ambrosino '27
The Stony Brook School	Bears	Arancha Rivero-Ansed '27 Carlos Gonzalez '28 Emily Gaillard '25	Jp Panebianco '27 Kevin Kelly '27 Gisele Brandao '27 Joshua Henson '25
Arrowhead High School	Warhawks	Cole Bebeau '27 John Lieber '26 Nicholas Berkowitz '28	Mark Sellers '26 Max Sellers '28 Jackson Bebeau '27
Barrington High School	Eagles	Ben Reuter '28 Cal Naperotic '28 Duffy Macaulay '27	Ezra White '28 Kai Beland '27 Enzo Cicione '27
Severna Park	Falcons	Gavin Morris '25 Peter Judge '25 Pierce Brenner '25 Robert Heath '25	William Albert '28 Pierce Brenner '25 Alexandria Still '27 Madison Cannon '25
East Greenwich High School	Avengers	Colin Auvil '26 Davis Collette '26 Griffin Mason '28 Sophia Joyce '27	Harper Kelley '25 Isaac Kaldor '25 Davis Collette '26 Aiden Krystoff '27
Gig Harbor High School	Tides	Bailey Rainbolt '26 Finn Deprez '25 Nico Konyk '25	Wesley Wysham '28 Tru Jackson '27 Cameron Siegert '27 Nate Dietrich '26
New Trier HS	Trevian	Aiala Angueira Salbidegoitia '26 Nathan Finkelstein '26 Olivia Gingue '26 Ralph Lipford '27	Amalia Lesterhuis '27 Charles Dischner '26 Camila Benes '26 Paula Kowalczyk '26 Bennett Waters '26

Conditions — 05/17/2025 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 59% · Pressure 1006.1 hPa

Temperature

80°F

↑ 84°F ↓ 76°F

Feels like 81°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

11.1 kn

avg · max 14.2 kn

Gusts to 31.9 kn

From SW (232°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover49% Sunshine9.0 hrs Humidity59% Pressure1006.1 hPa

What this breeze does at Norfolk Yacht and Country Club — from fleet racing

Breeze: SW about 13 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Norfolk Yacht and Country Club in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.02)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Norfolk Yacht and Country Club by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (32 labelled fleet-race days at Norfolk Yacht and Country Club).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

Navigate

Menu