Severna Park '25
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.32 (fleet 2.16) | 114 of 231 | −0.01 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 21–36 (37%) as crew 0–15 (0%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 | 2 | 8–8 | — |
| Fall 2024 | 2 | 9–11 | — |
| Spring 2024 | 1 | 3–4 | — |
| Fall 2023 | 1 | 1–13 | — |
| Fall 2021 | 1 | — | 0–15 |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 6 graded regattas (70 matches) the record is 19–51 against 20.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.9). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-17 | National Invitational Tournament | skipper | 1.32 | 0.97 | 6–8 | 6.9 | −0.35 | 0.2 | 78% |
| 2024-10-12 | MASSA Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.17 | 0.89 | 5–7 | 5.5 | −0.28 | 0.1 | 75% |
| 2024-09-28 | MDISA Team Race Qualifier | skipper | 1.02 | 1.11 | 4–4 | 3.9 | +0.10 | 0.0 | 65% |
| 2024-04-13 | MDISA Team Race Qualifier | skipper | 0.96 | 1.84 | 3–4 | 2.1 | +0.88 | 0.4 | 35% |
| 2023-09-30 | MDISA Fall Team Race Champs (Qualifier) | skipper | 0.62 | 0.09 | 1–13 | 1.5 | −0.54 | 0.1 | 79% |
| 2021-11-06 | MASSA Silver Team Race Championship | crew | 0.56 | -2.44 | 0–15 | 1.1 | ≤−3.00 | 1.5 | >99% |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Robert Heath |  Salve Regina University |
'29 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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