MDISA JV Fleet Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 11 9 20
2 Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 18 20 38
3 Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 20 30 50
4 Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 42 40 82
5 Severna Park Severna Park Falcons 58 24 82
6 Winston Churchill High School Winston Churchill High School Bulldogs 39 49 88
7 St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 44 48 92
8 Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School JV 34 58 92
9 Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 51 43 94
10 Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 58 39 97
11 Southern High School Southern High School Bulldogs 53 48 101
12 Flint Hill High School Flint Hill High School Huskies 43 60 103
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 4 1 1 2 2 1 11 Justin Marquez '24
James O'Leary '25
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 3 7 2 3 1 2 18 Ryan Brelage '24
Mac Fitzgerald '24
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 1 2 3 1 7 6 20 Hartley Cooper '26
Caroline Welte '25
Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School JV 7 11 6 4 3 3 34 Stefano De Leo '23 [1-6]
William Kessner '23 [1-2, 5-6]
Grace Corbett '22 [3-4]
Winston Churchill High School Winston Churchill High School Bulldogs 8 5 4 6 11 5 39 Jack Sieg '24 [1-6]
Graeme Finley '25 [1-2, 5-6]
Lila Gottenberg '25 [3-4]
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 5 12 5 10 6 4 42 James Lilyquist '24
Jared Werner '25
Flint Hill High School Flint Hill High School Huskies 6 4 DNF 8 5 7 43 Arda Alpan '25
Benjamin Briggs '25
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 2 3 9 9 12 9 44 Matthew Hayden '23
Jacob Spence '24
Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 11 8 8 5 9 10 51 Clara Wilson '25
Thomas Birchfield '27
Southern High School Southern High School Bulldogs 12 10 7 12 4 8 53 Lara Nielsen '24 [1-2, 5-6]
Sophie Griggs '24 [3-4]
Fiona O'Rourke '27 [1-2, 5-6]
Eric Nielsen '24 [3-4]
Severna Park Severna Park Falcons 9 6 10 11 10 12 58 Gavin Morris '25 [1-2, 5-6]
Pierce Brenner '25 [3-4]
Alexandria Still '27 [1-4]
Robert Heath '25 [5-6]
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 10 9 DNF 7 8 11 58 Caden Latchaw '23
Audrey Valentino '24
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 2 1 2 2 1 1 9 Chris White '24
Anabel Chambers '24
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 1 5 6 4 2 2 20 Adam Nilsson '25
Owen Delwiche '25
Severna Park Severna Park Falcons 3 2 4 8 4 3 24 Jake Beaver '27
Brendan Clark '25
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 4 4 7 5 6 4 30 Cristian Botsis '25
Victor Kleppinger '25
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 8 10 1 1 12 7 39 William Fachet '23
Lucia Zaklin '27
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 7 9 8 7 3 6 40 Will Grah '25
Cormac Flynn '24
Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 6 8 11 6 7 5 43 Sophia Shiffer '23 [1-4]
Caroline Fuller '24 [5-6]
Caroline Fuller '24 [1-4]
Sophia Shiffer '23 [5-6]
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 10 6 9 9 5 9 48 Katie Howard '23
Sabrina Vignola '23
Southern High School Southern High School Bulldogs 11 12 3 3 11 8 48 Maggie Dowling '27 [1-2]
Molly Dowling '25 [3-6]
Robert Whisman '24 [1-2, 5-6]
Carter Steiert '27 [3-4]
Winston Churchill High School Winston Churchill High School Bulldogs 5 11 5 10 8 10 49 Sophia Carney '24
Allison Sproules '22
Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School JV 9 3 12 12 10 12 58 Phoebe Milhollin '24 [1-6]
Marco Pilotto '25 [1-2, 5-6]
Ricardo Shayer '25 [3-4]
Flint Hill High School Flint Hill High School Huskies 12 7 10 11 9 11 60 John Wills '25 [1-2, 5-6]
Jonathan Piercey '25 [3-4]
Finnian Barry '25 [1-4]
Jonathan Piercey '25 [5-6]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (16 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Broadneck High SchoolBroadneck High School Bruins113355
Flint Hill High SchoolFlint Hill High School Huskies224466
Great Mills High SchoolGreat Mills High School Hornets335577
Kent Island High SchoolKent Island High School Buccaneers446688
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders557799
PatuxentPatuxent Panthers66881010
Sts. Peter & PaulSts. Peter & Paul Sabres1010121222
Severna ParkSeverna Park Falcons77991111
Southern High SchoolSouthern High School Bulldogs8810101212
St. Mary's RykenSt. Mary's Ryken Knights99111111
Walt Whitman High SchoolWalt Whitman High School JV11111133
Winston Churchill High SchoolWinston Churchill High School Bulldogs12122244

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Broadneck High SchoolBroadneck High School Bruins224466
Flint Hill High SchoolFlint Hill High School Huskies335577
Great Mills High SchoolGreat Mills High School Hornets446688
Kent Island High SchoolKent Island High School Buccaneers557799
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders66881010
PatuxentPatuxent Panthers77991111
Sts. Peter & PaulSts. Peter & Paul Sabres11111133
Severna ParkSeverna Park Falcons8810101212
Southern High SchoolSouthern High School Bulldogs99111111
St. Mary's RykenSt. Mary's Ryken Knights1010121222
Walt Whitman High SchoolWalt Whitman High School JV12122244
Winston Churchill High SchoolWinston Churchill High School Bulldogs113355
School / Team SkipperCrew
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Justin Marquez '24 James O'Leary '25
Bruins Chris White '24 Anabel Chambers '24
Flint Hill High School Flint Hill High School Arda Alpan '25 Benjamin Briggs '25
Huskies John Wills '25 [1-2, 5-6]
Jonathan Piercey '25 [3-4]
Finnian Barry '25 [1-4]
Jonathan Piercey '25 [5-6]
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Ryan Brelage '24 Mac Fitzgerald '24
Hornets Adam Nilsson '25 Owen Delwiche '25
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Caden Latchaw '23 Audrey Valentino '24
Buccaneers William Fachet '23 Lucia Zaklin '27
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School James Lilyquist '24 Jared Werner '25
Raiders Will Grah '25 Cormac Flynn '24
Patuxent Patuxent Clara Wilson '25 Thomas Birchfield '27
Panthers Sophia Shiffer '23 [1-4]
Caroline Fuller '24 [5-6]
Caroline Fuller '24 [1-4]
Sophia Shiffer '23 [5-6]
Severna Park Severna Park Gavin Morris '25 [1-2, 5-6]
Pierce Brenner '25 [3-4]
Alexandria Still '27 [1-4]
Robert Heath '25 [5-6]
Falcons Jake Beaver '27 Brendan Clark '25
Southern High School Southern High School Lara Nielsen '24 [1-2, 5-6]
Sophie Griggs '24 [3-4]
Fiona O'Rourke '27 [1-2, 5-6]
Eric Nielsen '24 [3-4]
Bulldogs Maggie Dowling '27 [1-2]
Molly Dowling '25 [3-6]
Robert Whisman '24 [1-2, 5-6]
Carter Steiert '27 [3-4]
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Matthew Hayden '23 Jacob Spence '24
Knights Katie Howard '23 Sabrina Vignola '23
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Hartley Cooper '26 Caroline Welte '25
Sabres Cristian Botsis '25 Victor Kleppinger '25
Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Stefano De Leo '23 [1-6] William Kessner '23 [1-2, 5-6]
Grace Corbett '22 [3-4]
JV Phoebe Milhollin '24 [1-6] Marco Pilotto '25 [1-2, 5-6]
Ricardo Shayer '25 [3-4]
Winston Churchill High School Winston Churchill High School Jack Sieg '24 [1-6] Graeme Finley '25 [1-2, 5-6]
Lila Gottenberg '25 [3-4]
Bulldogs Sophia Carney '24 Allison Sproules '22

Conditions — 04/09/2022 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 56%  ·  Pressure 1006.1 hPa

Temperature

52°F
↑ 54°F   ↓ 47°F
Feels like 47°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.2 kn
avg  ·  max 8.7 kn
Gusts to 20.4 kn
From W (270°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover43% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity56% Pressure1006.1 hPa Rain0.01 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at St. Mary's Ryken: a typical day (+0.01)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.08 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.10
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.09 ± 0.17)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at St. Mary's Ryken by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 2 labelled days at St. Mary's Ryken, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →