Broadneck High School '24
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.48 (fleet 2.29) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.06 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 36–40 (47%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 | 2 | 13–12 | — |
| Fall 2023 | 2 | 9–12 | — |
| Spring 2023 | 3 | 14–16 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 7 graded regattas (76 matches) the record is 36–40 against 32.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+3.9). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 6 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-27 | MASSA Team Championship and Baker Qualifier | skipper | 1.70 | 1.33 | 7–11 | 7.9 | −0.37 | 0.2 | 78% |
| 2024-04-13 | MDISA Team Race Qualifier | skipper | 2.00 | 4.05 | 6–1 | 4.5 | +2.05 | 1.5 | 18% |
| 2023-10-14 | MASSA Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.73 | 1.06 | 1–4 | 1.4 | −0.68 | 0.2 | 84% |
| 2023-09-30 | MDISA Fall Team Race Champs (Qualifier) | skipper | 1.68 | 1.79 | 8–8 | 7.7 | +0.11 | 0.0 | 55% |
| 2023-04-29 | MASSA Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.65 | 1.87 | 2–10 | 1.8 | +0.23 | 0.0 | 55% |
| 2023-04-01 | MDISA Team Race Qualifier | skipper | 1.48 | 2.66 | 6–5 | 4.6 | +1.18 | 0.9 | 25% |
| 2023-03-18 | MDISA SSA Team Race | skipper | 1.21 | 4.23 | 6–1 | 4.1 | +3.03 | 2.7 | 9% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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