MASSA Team Championship and Baker Qualifier

HostNorfolk Yacht and Country Club
Date04/27/2024
TypeDistrict Championship
BoatCFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Severn School	Admirals	19–2
2	Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs	16–5
3	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts	15–6
4	Hampton Roads Academy	Navigators	12–9
5	Archbishop Spalding	Cavaliers	11–7
6	The Stony Brook School	Bears	8–10
7	Broadneck High School	Bruins	7–11
8	Key School	Zags	4–14
9	Rye High School	Garnets	3–15
10	West Irondequoit	Eagles	1–17

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 10,938 team race matches sailed before 2024-04-27, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 81 of 97 matches (84%) with a log-loss of 0.399 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.23 ± 0.23: a typical event, more orderly than 58% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Severn School Admirals	2	7.94 school −0.17	Ava Cornell / Scarlett Harris 2.47 Annie Sitzmann / Helena English 2.88 17–2 Alex Baker / Reese Corckran 2.86 11–1 Harrison Szot / Charlotte Macdonald 2.58 8–1 Annie Sitzmann / John Szynal 2.70 2–0	75%	19–2 (90%)	+3.2
2	Norfolk Academy Bulldogs	1	8.00 school +0.29	Hunter Wheary / Anna Iacobucci 2.08 James Allgeier / Marin Soderberg 2.96 Sean Trudell / Sabrina Casagrande 2.63 11–0 Sean Trudell / Jack Poynter 2.65 5–5	75%	16–5 (76%)	+0.2
3	Christian Brothers Academy Colts	4	7.17 school +0.06	Cole Buczkowski / Luke Pennisi 2.34 Chris Small / Mitchell Hnatt 2.82 14–2 Jules Buczkowski / Daniel Stephan 1.83 14–2 Mitchell Hnatt / Daniel Stephan 1.86 1–4 Chris Small / Matthew Dupree 2.72 1–4	62%	15–6 (71%)	+1.9
4	Hampton Roads Academy Navigators	3	7.61 school −0.17	Pierce Brindley / Daphne Ambrosino 2.26 Leila Pfrang / Josie Brindley 2.66 Parker Moore / Nicholas Bielewicz 2.82	71%	13–9 (59%)	−2.6
5	Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers	6	5.86 school −0.09	Parker Herman / Taylor Collison 2.31 Owen Macwilliams / Christina Pierce 2.90 Charles Geraghty / Maggie Mcinerney 0.71	44%	11–8 (58%)	+2.6
6	The Stony Brook School Bears	5	6.08 school −0.24	Gavin Hudson / Elaine Tian 2.56 Mauro Gonzales / Joshua Henson 2.20 5–9 Mairead Reitzel / Mia Jones 1.49 5–9 Mauro Gonzales / Laura Ciagune 1.97 3–1 Mairead Reitzel / Joshua Henson 1.54 3–1	50%	8–10 (44%)	−0.9
7	Broadneck High School Bruins	7	5.71 school +0.24	Chris White / Abigail Burritt 1.70 Marco Welch / James O'Leary 1.80 Hayden Clary / Aden Keithley 1.79	44%	7–11 (39%)	−0.9
8	Key School Zags	8	4.98	Mason Cook / Paige Asbill 2.59 James Rizek / Annabelle Ulak 1.31 Trey Burman / Elizabeth Roesch 1.02	33%	4–14 (22%)	−1.9
9	Rye High School Garnets	9	4.34 school +0.32	Kai Mcculloch / Annabella Milano 1.35 2–12 Hugo Sacristan / Haley Kloepfer 1.12 2–12 Finn Palermo / Alice Waddington 1.49 1–7 Finn Palermo / Cecelia Hoogstra 1.41 1–5 Hugo Sacristan / Alice Waddington 0.89 1–3 Finn Palermo / Haley Kloepfer 1.62 1–3 Kai Mcculloch / Cecelia Hoogstra 1.21 1–3	23%	3–15 (17%)	−1.2
10	West Irondequoit Eagles	10	2.87	Isaac Aymerich / James Milne Juliana Lanz / Cooper Petzing Daniel Tarlowski / Genevieve Heiermann	8%	1–17 (6%)	−0.5

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Severn School	7.94	9.58	19–2	15.8	+1.64	2.6	6%
5	Archbishop Spalding	5.86	6.82	11–8	8.4	+0.96	1.4	13%
3	Christian Brothers Academy	7.17	7.85	15–6	13.0	+0.69	0.7	23%
2	Norfolk Academy	8.00	8.06	16–5	15.8	+0.06	0.0	59%
6	The Stony Brook School	6.08	5.72	8–10	8.9	−0.36	0.2	78%
7	Broadneck High School	5.71	5.34	7–11	7.9	−0.37	0.2	78%
10	West Irondequoit	2.87	2.28	1–17	1.5	−0.59	0.2	80%
9	Rye High School	4.34	3.63	3–15	4.2	−0.71	0.5	87%
4	Hampton Roads Academy	7.61	6.79	13–9	15.6	−0.82	1.2	94%
8	Key School	4.98	4.03	4–14	5.9	−0.94	1.0	93%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Alex Baker	Severn School	2.86	4.70	11–1	9.0	+1.84	1.8	14%
Annie Sitzmann	Severn School	2.88	4.52	19–2	15.8	+1.64	2.6	6%
Ava Cornell	Severn School	2.47	4.11	19–2	15.8	+1.64	2.6	6%
Harrison Szot	Severn School	2.58	3.98	8–1	6.7	+1.40	0.9	28%
Parker Herman	Archbishop Spalding	2.31	3.26	11–8	8.4	+0.96	1.4	13%
Charles Geraghty	Archbishop Spalding	0.71	1.67	11–8	8.4	+0.96	1.4	13%
Cole Buczkowski	Christian Brothers Academy	2.34	3.03	15–6	13.0	+0.69	0.7	23%
Hunter Wheary	Norfolk Academy	2.08	2.14	16–5	15.8	+0.06	0.0	59%
Mauro Gonzales	The Stony Brook School	2.20	1.85	8–10	8.9	−0.36	0.2	78%
Mairead Reitzel	The Stony Brook School	1.49	1.13	8–10	8.9	−0.36	0.2	78%
Chris White	Broadneck High School	1.70	1.33	7–11	7.9	−0.37	0.2	78%
Isaac Aymerich	West Irondequoit	0.82	0.23	1–17	1.5	−0.59	0.2	80%
Daniel Tarlowski	West Irondequoit	0.43	-0.16	1–17	1.5	−0.59	0.2	80%
Kai Mcculloch	Rye High School	1.35	0.63	3–15	4.2	−0.71	0.5	87%
Hugo Sacristan	Rye High School	1.12	0.41	3–15	4.2	−0.71	0.5	87%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Archbishop Spalding	Christian Brothers Academy	29%	upset
1	2	Hampton Roads Academy	Broadneck High School	83%
1	3	Norfolk Academy	Rye High School	95%
1	4	The Stony Brook School	Key School	67%
1	5	Severn School	Christian Brothers Academy	69%
1	6	Broadneck High School	West Irondequoit	93%
1	7	Archbishop Spalding	Rye High School	77%
1	8	Hampton Roads Academy	The Stony Brook School	79%
1	9	Severn School	Norfolk Academy	51%
1	10	Key School	West Irondequoit	87%
1	11	Christian Brothers Academy	Rye High School	90%
1	12	Broadneck High School	The Stony Brook School	42%	upset
1	13	Severn School	Archbishop Spalding	85%
1	14	Hampton Roads Academy	West Irondequoit	98%
1	15	Christian Brothers Academy	Norfolk Academy	33%	upset
1	16	Broadneck High School	Key School	64%
1	17	Severn School	Rye High School	94%
1	18	The Stony Brook School	West Irondequoit	93%
1	19	Archbishop Spalding	Norfolk Academy	16%	upset
1	20	Hampton Roads Academy	Key School	89%
1	21	Christian Brothers Academy	Broadneck High School	75%
1	22	Severn School	The Stony Brook School	79%
1	23	West Irondequoit	Rye High School	23%	upset
1	24	Norfolk Academy	Key School	91%
1	25	Hampton Roads Academy	Archbishop Spalding	80%
1	26	Christian Brothers Academy	The Stony Brook School	69%
1	27	Severn School	Broadneck High School	84%
1	28	Norfolk Academy	West Irondequoit	98%
1	29	Key School	Rye High School	65%
1	30	The Stony Brook School	Archbishop Spalding	55%
1	31	Christian Brothers Academy	Hampton Roads Academy	41%	upset
1	32	Severn School	West Irondequoit	98%
1	33	Broadneck High School	Rye High School	76%
1	34	Archbishop Spalding	Key School	67%
1	35	Norfolk Academy	Hampton Roads Academy	58%
1	36	Christian Brothers Academy	West Irondequoit	97%
1	37	The Stony Brook School	Rye High School	79%
1	38	Severn School	Key School	92%
1	39	Norfolk Academy	Broadneck High School	86%
1	40	Archbishop Spalding	West Irondequoit	91%
1	41	Hampton Roads Academy	Rye High School	92%
1	42	Christian Brothers Academy	Key School	85%
1	43	Norfolk Academy	The Stony Brook School	81%
1	44	Archbishop Spalding	Broadneck High School	53%
1	45	Severn School	Hampton Roads Academy	54%
2	46	Christian Brothers Academy	Archbishop Spalding	73%
2	47	Hampton Roads Academy	Broadneck High School	81%
2	48	Norfolk Academy	Rye High School	94%
2	49	The Stony Brook School	Key School	69%
2	50	Severn School	Christian Brothers Academy	67%
2	51	Broadneck High School	West Irondequoit	90%
2	52	Rye High School	Archbishop Spalding	24%	upset
2	53	The Stony Brook School	Hampton Roads Academy	23%	upset
2	54	Norfolk Academy	Severn School	49%	upset
2	55	Key School	West Irondequoit	83%
2	56	Christian Brothers Academy	Rye High School	90%
2	57	Broadneck High School	The Stony Brook School	42%	upset
2	58	Severn School	Archbishop Spalding	85%
2	59	Hampton Roads Academy	West Irondequoit	97%
2	60	Christian Brothers Academy	Norfolk Academy	35%	upset
2	61	Broadneck High School	Key School	64%
2	62	Severn School	Rye High School	93%
2	63	The Stony Brook School	West Irondequoit	92%
2	64	Norfolk Academy	Archbishop Spalding	84%
2	65	Hampton Roads Academy	Key School	89%
2	66	Christian Brothers Academy	Broadneck High School	76%
2	67	Severn School	The Stony Brook School	78%
2	68	Rye High School	West Irondequoit	75%
2	69	Norfolk Academy	Key School	91%
2	70	Archbishop Spalding	Hampton Roads Academy	20%	upset
2	71	Christian Brothers Academy	The Stony Brook School	70%
2	72	Severn School	Broadneck High School	83%
2	73	Norfolk Academy	West Irondequoit	98%
2	74	Key School	Rye High School	63%
2	75	Archbishop Spalding	The Stony Brook School	44%	upset
2	76	Hampton Roads Academy	Christian Brothers Academy	57%
2	77	Severn School	West Irondequoit	98%
2	78	Rye High School	Broadneck High School	25%	upset
2	79	Archbishop Spalding	Key School	66%
2	80	Norfolk Academy	Hampton Roads Academy	57%
2	81	Christian Brothers Academy	West Irondequoit	96%
2	82	The Stony Brook School	Rye High School	79%
2	83	Severn School	Key School	92%
2	84	Norfolk Academy	Broadneck High School	85%
2	85	Archbishop Spalding	West Irondequoit	90%
2	86	Hampton Roads Academy	Rye High School	92%
2	87	Christian Brothers Academy	Key School	85%
2	88	Norfolk Academy	The Stony Brook School	80%
2	89	Archbishop Spalding	Broadneck High School	52%
2	90	Severn School	Hampton Roads Academy	54%
2	91	Hampton Roads Academy	Archbishop Spalding	80%
4	92	Norfolk Academy	Christian Brothers Academy	64%
4	93	Hampton Roads Academy	Severn School	46%	upset
4	94	Christian Brothers Academy	Hampton Roads Academy	43%	upset
4	95	Severn School	Norfolk Academy	51%
4	96	Norfolk Academy	Hampton Roads Academy	57%
4	97	Severn School	Christian Brothers Academy	66%

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Cavaliers	1-3-4	def.	Colts	2-5-6
2	Navigators	2-3-4	def.	Bruins	1-5-6
3	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Garnets	3-4-6
4	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Zags	3-5-6
5	Admirals	1-2-4	def.	Colts	3-5-6
6	Bruins	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
7	Cavaliers	1-2-6	def.	Garnets	3-4-5
8	Navigators	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
9	Admirals	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
10	Zags	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6
11	Colts	1-2-6	def.	Garnets	3-4-5
12	Bruins	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
13	Admirals	1-4-5	def.	Cavaliers	2-3-6
14	Navigators	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
15	Colts	1-3-4	def.	Bulldogs	2-5-6
16	Bruins	1-2-3	def.	Zags	4-5-6
17	Admirals	1-2-4	def.	Garnets	3-5-6
18	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6
19	Cavaliers	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
20	Navigators	1-2-3	def.	Zags	4-5-6
21	Colts	1-2-6	def.	Bruins	3-4-5
22	Admirals	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
23	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Garnets	1-5-6
24	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Zags	3-4-6
25	Navigators	2-3-4	def.	Cavaliers	1-5-6
26	Colts	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
27	Admirals	1-2-3	def.	Bruins	4-5-6
28	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
29	Zags	1-2-6	def.	Garnets	3-4-5
30	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Cavaliers	3-4-6
31	Colts	1-3-4	def.	Navigators	2-5-6
32	Admirals	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
33	Bruins	1-3-5	def.	Garnets	2-4-6
34	Cavaliers	1-2-5	def.	Zags	3-4-6
35	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Navigators	1-5-6
36	Colts	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
37	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Garnets	3-4-5
38	Admirals	1-2-5	def.	Zags	3-4-6
39	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Bruins	3-4-5
40	Cavaliers	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
41	Navigators	1-2-4	def.	Garnets	3-5-6
42	Colts	1-2-5	def.	Zags	3-4-6
43	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
44	Cavaliers	1-2-6	def.	Bruins	3-4-5
45	Admirals	1-2-4	def.	Navigators	3-5-6
46	Colts	1-3-4	def.	Cavaliers	2-5-6
47	Navigators	1-2-4	def.	Bruins	3-5-6
48	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Garnets	4-5-6
49	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Zags	1-5-6
50	Admirals	1-2-6	def.	Colts	3-4-5
51	Bruins	1-3-6	def.	Eagles	2-4-5
52	Garnets	1-2-4	def.	Cavaliers	3-5-6
53	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Navigators	3-5-6
54	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Admirals	4-5-6
55	Zags	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
56	Colts	1-2-3	def.	Garnets	4-5-6
57	Bruins	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
58	Admirals	1-2-5	def.	Cavaliers	3-4-6
59	Navigators	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
60	Colts	2-3-5	def.	Bulldogs	1-4-6
61	Bruins	2-3-4	def.	Zags	1-5-6
62	Admirals	1-2-3	def.	Garnets	4-5-6
63	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
64	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Cavaliers	3-4-5
65	Navigators	1-2-3	def.	Zags	4-5-6
66	Colts	1-2-5	def.	Bruins	3-4-6
67	Admirals	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
68	Garnets	2-3-5	def.	Eagles	1-4-6
69	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Zags	3-4-5
70	Cavaliers	1-2-6	def.	Navigators	3-4-5
71	Colts	1-3-5	def.	Bears	2-4-6
72	Admirals	1-2-3	def.	Bruins	4-5-6
73	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
74	Zags	1-2-5	def.	Garnets	3-4-6
75	Cavaliers	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
76	Navigators	1-2-6	def.	Colts	3-4-5
77	Admirals	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
78	Garnets	1-2-5	def.	Bruins	3-4-6
79	Cavaliers	1-2-4	def.	Zags	3-5-6
80	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Navigators	3-4-5
81	Colts	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
82	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Garnets	3-5-6
83	Admirals	1-2-5	def.	Zags	3-4-6
84	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Bruins	4-5-6
85	Cavaliers	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
86	Navigators	1-2-6	def.	Garnets	3-4-5
87	Colts	1-2-6	def.	Zags	3-4-5
88	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
89	Cavaliers	1-2-5	def.	Bruins	3-4-6
90	Admirals	1-3-4	def.	Navigators	2-5-6
91	Navigators	1-2-3	def.	Cavaliers	4-5-6
92	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Colts	3-4-5
93	Navigators	2-3-4	def.	Admirals	1-5-6
94	Colts	1-2-6	def.	Navigators	3-4-5
95	Admirals	1-3-4	def.	Bulldogs	2-5-6
96	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Navigators	3-4-5
97	Admirals	1-2-5	def.	Colts	3-4-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Severn School	Admirals	Alex Baker '26 Annie Sitzmann '26 Ava Cornell '24 Harrison Szot '27	Reese Corckran '24 Helena English '24 John Szynal '24 Scarlett Harris '24 Charlotte Macdonald '26
Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs	Hunter Wheary '24 James Allgeier '27 Sean Trudell '24	Anna Iacobucci '25 Marin Soderberg '24 Jack Poynter '25 Sabrina Casagrande '25
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts	Christopher Small '26 Cole Buczkowski '27 Jules Buczkowski '26 Mitchell Hnatt '24	Matthew Dupree '25 Mitchell Hnatt '24 Luke Pennisi '24 Daniel Stephan '24
Hampton Roads Academy	Navigators	Leila Pfrang '25 Parker Moore '25 Pierce Brindley '24	Josie Brindley '26 Nicholas Bielewicz '26 Daphne Ambrosino '27
Archbishop Spalding	Cavaliers	Charles Geraghty '26 Owen Macwilliams '24 Parker Herman '24	Maggie Mcinerney '25 Christina Pierce '25 Taylor Collison '24
The Stony Brook School	Bears	Gavin Hudson '24 Mairead Reitzel '24 Mauro Gonzales '24	Elaine Tian '24 Mia Jones '26 Joshua Henson '25 Laura Ciagune '25
Broadneck High School	Bruins	Chris White '24 Hayden Clary '24 Marco Welch '24	Abigail Burritt '25 Aden Keithley '24 James O'Leary '25
Key School	Zags	James Rizek '23 Mason Cook '25 Trey Burman '25	Annabelle Ulak '26 Paige Asbill '31 Elizabeth Roesch '27
Rye High School	Garnets	Finn Palermo '24 Hugo Sacristan '26 Kai Mcculloch '27	Haley Kloepfer '25 Cecelia Hoogstra '25 Alice Waddington '25 Annabella Milano '25
West Irondequoit	Eagles	Daniel Tarlowski '25 Isaac Aymerich '26 Juliana Lanz '26	Genevieve Heiermann '26 James Milne '26 Cooper Petzing '26

Conditions — 04/27/2024 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 65% · Pressure 1030.8 hPa

Temperature

63°F

↑ 66°F ↓ 56°F

Feels like 59°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

8.6 kn

avg · max 11.1 kn

Gusts to 19.0 kn

From SE (130°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover90% Sunshine7.0 hrs Humidity65% Pressure1030.8 hPa

What this breeze does at Norfolk Yacht and Country Club — from fleet racing

Breeze: SE about 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Norfolk Yacht and Country Club in this breeze: a typical day (+0.00)

Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Norfolk Yacht and Country Club by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (32 labelled fleet-race days at Norfolk Yacht and Country Club).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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