Key School '26
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 95.77 percentile among ISSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.097 rating points from 169 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →Includes linked high school and college seasons.
| Season | Team | Rating | Range | League percentile |
Team percentile |
On team | Races | Team page |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | Severn School | 4.54 | 99.72 | 88.46 | 2 of 13 | 32 | Team page | |
| Fall 2025 | Severn School | 3.78 | 99.33 | 83.33 | 2 of 9 | 30 | Team page | |
| Spring 2025 | Severn School | 4.56 | 99.59 | 93.75 | 1 of 8 | 18 | Team page | |
| Fall 2024 | Severn School | 4.05 | 99.42 | 86.36 | 2 of 11 | 32 | Team page | |
| Spring 2024 | Key School | 3.15 | 96.63 | 90.00 | 1 of 5 | 17 | Team page | |
| Fall 2023 | Key School | 2.24 | 89.32 | 87.50 | 1 of 4 | 12 | Team page | |
| Spring 2023 | Key School | 2.86 | 94.66 | 91.67 | 1 of 6 | 12 | Team page |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.30 (fleet 0.49) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 1–6 (14%) as crew 135–48 (74%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 2 | — | 31–3 |
| Fall 2025 | 2 | — | 13–3 |
| Spring 2025 | 4 | — | 49–8 |
| Fall 2024 | 2 | — | 21–2 |
| Spring 2024 | 2 | — | 8–17 |
| Fall 2023 | 2 | — | 10–11 |
| Spring 2023 | 1 | — | 3–4 |
| Fall 2022 | 1 | 1–6 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 16 graded regattas (190 matches) the record is 136–54 against 132.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+3.5). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 7 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 12 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | ISSA Team Race Championship for the Baker Trophy | crew | 2.80 | 4.53 | 15–2 | 11.7 | +1.73 | 2.9 | 5% |
| 2026-04-11 | MDISA Team Race | crew | 2.91 | 2.02 | 16–1 | 16.5 | −0.90 | 0.3 | 91% |
| 2025-10-18 | MASSA Team Race Championship | crew | 3.09 | 2.66 | 8–2 | 8.4 | −0.43 | 0.1 | 81% |
| 2025-10-05 | MDISA Team Race Qualifier | crew | 3.08 | 1.12 | 5–1 | 5.7 | −1.96 | 0.9 | 98% |
| 2025-05-16 | ISSA Baker Team Race Championship | crew | 3.15 | 2.18 | 10–7 | 12.5 | −0.97 | 1.4 | 96% |
| 2025-04-26 | MASSA Baker Qualifier | crew | 3.21 | 4.76 | 20–1 | 18.4 | +1.55 | 1.2 | 21% |
| 2025-04-12 | MDISA Baker Pre-Qualifier | crew | 3.17 | 6.17 | 10–0 | 9.7 | ≥+3.00 | 0.4 | 75% |
| 2025-04-06 | MDISA Severn Team Race | crew | 3.15 | 6.14 | 9–0 | 8.8 | ≥+3.00 | 0.3 | 80% |
| 2024-10-12 | MASSA Team Race Championship | crew | 3.07 | 3.35 | 13–2 | 12.7 | +0.28 | 0.1 | 58% |
| 2024-09-28 | MDISA Team Race Qualifier | crew | 3.05 | 6.05 | 8–0 | 7.8 | ≥+3.00 | 0.3 | 82% |
| 2024-04-27 | MASSA Team Championship and Baker Qualifier | crew | 1.31 | 0.36 | 4–14 | 5.9 | −0.94 | 1.0 | 93% |
| 2024-04-13 | MDISA Team Race Qualifier | crew | 0.69 | 1.90 | 4–3 | 2.8 | +1.21 | 0.8 | 26% |
| 2023-10-14 | MASSA Team Race Championship | crew | 1.16 | 0.36 | 1–4 | 1.6 | −0.79 | 0.2 | 85% |
| 2023-09-30 | MDISA Fall Team Race Champs (Qualifier) | crew | 1.01 | 2.12 | 9–7 | 6.3 | +1.11 | 1.7 | 10% |
| 2023-03-18 | MDISA SSA Team Race | crew | 0.59 | 0.93 | 3–4 | 2.6 | +0.34 | 0.1 | 54% |
| 2022-10-08 | 2022 MDISA TR Qualifier | skipper | 0.36 | 0.10 | 1–6 | 1.1 | −0.26 | 0.0 | 77% |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Annabelle Ulak |  Severn School |
'26 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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