| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Severn School | Admirals | 15–0 |
| 2 |  |
Severna Park | Falcons | 10–5 |
| 3 |  |
Key School | Zags | 10–5 |
| 4 |  |
Archbishop Spalding | Cavaliers | 5–10 |
| 5 |  |
St. Mary's High School (MD) | Saints | 4–8 |
| 6 |  |
South River High School | Seahawks | 2–10 |
| 7 |  |
Kent Island High School | Buccaneers | 2–10 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 11,963 team race matches sailed before 2025-04-12, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 42 of 48 matches (88%) with a log-loss of 0.296 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.28 ± 0.34: a typical event, more orderly than 62% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Severn School | 9.12 | 12.12 | 15–0 | 14.7 | ≥+3.00 | 0.4 | 71% |
| 3 | Key School | 4.94 | 5.79 | 10–5 | 8.7 | +0.85 | 0.6 | 30% |
| 2 | Severna Park | 5.36 | 5.62 | 10–5 | 9.6 | +0.27 | 0.1 | 55% |
| 6 | South River High School | 1.84 | 1.88 | 2–10 | 2.0 | +0.04 | 0.0 | 62% |
| 5 | St. Mary's High School (MD) | 3.26 | 2.96 | 4–8 | 4.4 | −0.30 | 0.1 | 75% |
| 4 | Archbishop Spalding | 3.66 | 3.28 | 5–10 | 5.7 | −0.38 | 0.1 | 78% |
| 7 | Kent Island High School | 2.43 | 1.68 | 2–10 | 2.9 | −0.75 | 0.4 | 86% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annie Sitzmann | Severn School | 3.17 | 6.17 | 15–0 | 14.7 | ≥+3.00 | 0.4 | 71% |
| Alex Baker | Severn School | 2.99 | 5.99 | 15–0 | 14.7 | ≥+3.00 | 0.4 | 71% |
| Harrison Szot | Severn School | 2.97 | 5.97 | 15–0 | 14.7 | ≥+3.00 | 0.4 | 71% |
| Casey Burman | Key School | 1.32 | 2.17 | 10–5 | 8.7 | +0.85 | 0.6 | 30% |
| Jake Beaver | Severna Park | 1.82 | 2.09 | 10–5 | 9.6 | +0.27 | 0.1 | 55% |
| Clara Neeland | South River High School | 0.68 | 0.72 | 2–10 | 2.0 | +0.04 | 0.0 | 62% |
| Matthew Treatman-Clark | South River High School | 0.29 | 0.33 | 2–10 | 2.0 | +0.04 | 0.0 | 62% |
| James Chapman | St. Mary's High School (MD) | 0.91 | 0.61 | 4–8 | 4.4 | −0.30 | 0.1 | 75% |
| Ann Martino | Archbishop Spalding | 1.09 | 0.71 | 5–10 | 5.7 | −0.38 | 0.1 | 78% |
| Alex Julian | Archbishop Spalding | 0.99 | 0.61 | 5–10 | 5.7 | −0.38 | 0.1 | 78% |
| James Biles V | Kent Island High School | 1.29 | 0.54 | 2–10 | 2.9 | −0.75 | 0.4 | 86% |
| Zachary Wells | Kent Island High School | 0.60 | -0.16 | 2–10 | 2.9 | −0.75 | 0.4 | 86% |
| Cole Ramsey | Kent Island High School | 0.31 | -0.44 | 2–10 | 2.9 | −0.75 | 0.4 | 86% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Cavaliers | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Saints | 2-3-6 |
| 2 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Buccaneers | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Zags | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Falcons | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 1-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Saints | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Buccaneers | 3-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Zags | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Falcons | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-5 |
| 8 | |
Cavaliers | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Buccaneers | 2-3-6 |
| 9 | |
Zags | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Saints | 3-4-5 |
| 10 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahawks | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Falcons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Buccaneers | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Zags | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Saints | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Seahawks | 2-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Falcons | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Zags | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Buccaneers | 3-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Cavaliers | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Seahawks | 2-4-5 |
| 17 | |
Admirals | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Saints | 3-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Zags | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Falcons | 2-4-5 |
| 19 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Buccaneers | 3-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 4-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Falcons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Saints | 4-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Saints | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 4-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Buccaneers | 4-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Zags | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Falcons | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 3-4-6 |
| 26 | |
Buccaneers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Saints | 3-4-6 |
| 27 | |
Admirals | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Zags | 3-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Falcons | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Seahawks | 1-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Buccaneers | 3-4-6 |
| 30 | |
Zags | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Saints | 2-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahawks | 4-5-6 |
| 32 | |
Falcons | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Buccaneers | 3-5-6 |
| 33 | |
Zags | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 4-5-6 |
| 34 | |
Saints | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Seahawks | 1-5-6 |
| 35 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Falcons | 4-5-6 |
| 36 | |
Zags | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Buccaneers | 2-3-6 |
| 37 | |
Seahawks | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 2-5-6 |
| 38 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Saints | 4-5-6 |
| 39 | |
Falcons | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Zags | 3-4-6 |
| 40 | |
Buccaneers | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 1-4-6 |
| 41 | |
Admirals | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 3-5-6 |
| 42 | |
Falcons | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Saints | 2-4-6 |
| 43 | |
Admirals | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Zags | 3-5-6 |
| 44 | |
Cavaliers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Falcons | 1-5-6 |
| 45 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 4-5-6 |
| 46 | |
Falcons | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Zags | 1-5-6 |
| 47 | |
Zags | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 3-4-5 |
| 48 | |
Admirals | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-4-5 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Severn School | Admirals | Alex Baker '26 Annie Sitzmann '26 Harrison Szot '27 |
Charlotte Macdonald '26 Jack Lever-Farino '25 Annabelle Ulak '26 Ana Fishback '27 |
|
Severna Park | Falcons | Gavin Morris '25 Jake Beaver '27 Peter Judge '25 |
Connor Smith '25 Madison Cannon '25 Logan Nield '30 |
|
Key School | Zags | Casey Burman '28 Mason Cook '25 Trey Burman '25 |
Gideon Santana '28 Paige Asbill '31 Ben Coster '31 |
|
Archbishop Spalding | Cavaliers | Alex Julian '28 Ann Martino '26 Mary Hayes Cobbum '27 |
Christina Pierce '25 Emily Julian '28 Maggie Mcinerney '25 |
|
St. Mary's High School (MD) | Saints | Halsey Carter '26 James Chapman '27 Logan Downey '25 |
Luc Tetreault '27 Aurelea Cerny '30 Delaney Carter '28 |
|
South River High School | Seahawks | Clara Neeland '26 Fiona O'Rourke '28 Matthew Treatman-Clark '27 |
Annika Fisher '25 Tomas ... '26 Harrison Jones '26 Zen Corby '26 |
|
Kent Island High School | Buccaneers | Cole Ramsey '28 James Biles V '27 Zachary Wells '25 |
Samuel Wells '27 Viana Johnston '28 Henry Macmillan '26 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
