Kent Island High School '28
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.03 (fleet 0.05) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 5–16 (24%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 | 2 | 5–16 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (21 matches) the record is 5–16 against 5.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.8). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-12 | MDISA Baker Pre-Qualifier | skipper | 0.31 | -0.44 | 2–10 | 2.9 | −0.75 | 0.4 | 86% |
| 2025-04-06 | MDISA Severn Team Race | skipper | 0.08 | 0.21 | 3–6 | 2.9 | +0.13 | 0.0 | 64% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| MDISA WRSC FALL 2025 T1 | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.7 | 0.36 |
| MDISA DC Sail T1 Fleet Race | Skipper | B | 6 | 12.5 | -1.17 |
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| T2 Fleet Championship Spring 2025 | Skipper | A | 4 | 10.0 | -0.08 |
| MDISA SSPP T2 Fleet | Skipper | A | 6 | 6.3 | -0.23 |
| MDISA Severn Team Race | Skipper | TR | 9 | 33% | — |
| MDISA WRSC Spring Tier 1 | Skipper | B | 3 | 7.0 | 0.35 |
| MDISA T2 Spring 2025 Regatta NERYC 5.3 | Skipper | A | 5 | 5.2 | -0.49 |
| MDISA Baker Pre-Qualifier | Skipper | TR | 12 | 17% | — |
| MDISA BCSC Tier 2 May Regatta | Skipper | A | 5 | 2.6 | 2.04 |
| Fall 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| MDISA WRSC Fall Tier 2 Regatta 2024 | Skipper | B | 4 | 5.2 | 0.53 |
| MDISA T3 Regatta NERYC | Skipper | A | 6 | 4.7 | -0.23 |
| MDISA Kent Island T2 | Skipper | A | 6 | 6.3 | 0.29 |
| MDISA DC Sail T3 Fleet Race | Skipper | B | 3 | 5.3 | 0.35 |
| MDISA Gunston T2 Fall 2024 | Skipper | B | 5 | 9.6 | -0.67 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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