| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Severn School | Admirals 1 | 9–0 |
| 2 | |
Severn School | Admirals 2 | 8–1 |
| 3 |  |
Severna Park | Falcons | 7–2 |
| 4 |  |
Key School | Zags | 6–3 |
| 5 |  |
Archbishop Spalding | Cavaliers | 5–4 |
| 6 |  |
St. Mary's High School (MD) | Saints | 4–5 |
| 7 |  |
Kent Island High School | Buccaneers | 3–6 |
| 8 |  |
South River High School | Seahawks | 2–7 |
| 9 |  |
Walt Whitman High School | Vikings | 1–8 |
| 10 |  |
St. John's College High School | St. John's College | 0–9 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 11,868 team race matches sailed before 2025-04-06, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 45 of 45 matches (100%) with a log-loss of 0.169 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.69 ± 0.34: an orderly event, more orderly than 91% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Severn School Admirals 1 | 9.02 | 12.02 | 9–0 | 8.8 | ≥+3.00 | 0.3 | 80% |
| 2 | Severn School Admirals 2 | 5.98 | 7.91 | 8–1 | 7.0 | +1.93 | 1.0 | 32% |
| 3 | Severna Park Falcons | 4.91 | 5.88 | 7–2 | 6.2 | +0.97 | 0.4 | 42% |
| 7 | Kent Island High School Buccaneers | 2.08 | 2.21 | 3–6 | 2.9 | +0.13 | 0.0 | 64% |
| 6 | St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints | 3.12 | 3.04 | 4–5 | 4.1 | −0.08 | 0.0 | 71% |
| 4 | Key School Zags | 4.92 | 4.81 | 6–3 | 6.1 | −0.12 | 0.0 | 73% |
| 8 | South River High School Seahawks | 1.27 | 1.15 | 2–7 | 2.1 | −0.12 | 0.0 | 71% |
| 5 | Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers | 4.14 | 3.99 | 5–4 | 5.1 | −0.15 | 0.0 | 74% |
| 9 | Walt Whitman High School Vikings | 0.80 | -0.18 | 1–8 | 1.7 | −0.98 | 0.3 | 89% |
| 10 | St. John's College High School St. John's College | 0.18 | -2.82 | 0–9 | 1.0 | ≤−3.00 | 1.6 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annie Sitzmann | Severn School | 3.15 | 6.14 | 9–0 | 8.8 | ≥+3.00 | 0.3 | 80% |
| Alex Baker | Severn School | 2.96 | 5.96 | 9–0 | 8.8 | ≥+3.00 | 0.3 | 80% |
| Harrison Szot | Severn School | 2.94 | 5.94 | 9–0 | 8.8 | ≥+3.00 | 0.3 | 80% |
| Will Mohler | Severn School | 1.79 | 3.71 | 8–1 | 7.0 | +1.93 | 1.0 | 32% |
| Chris Hanson | Severn School | 2.31 | 4.24 | 8–1 | 7.0 | +1.93 | 1.0 | 32% |
| Antoine Ismael | Severn School | 1.63 | 3.56 | 8–1 | 7.0 | +1.93 | 1.0 | 32% |
| Jake Beaver | Severna Park | 1.78 | 2.66 | 6–2 | 5.3 | +0.88 | 0.3 | 46% |
| James Biles V | Kent Island High School | 1.06 | 1.19 | 3–6 | 2.9 | +0.13 | 0.0 | 64% |
| Zachary Wells | Kent Island High School | 0.53 | 0.66 | 3–6 | 2.9 | +0.13 | 0.0 | 64% |
| Cole Ramsey | Kent Island High School | 0.08 | 0.21 | 3–6 | 2.9 | +0.13 | 0.0 | 64% |
| James Chapman | St. Mary's High School (MD) | 0.79 | 0.71 | 4–5 | 4.1 | −0.08 | 0.0 | 71% |
| Casey Burman | Key School | 1.40 | 1.28 | 6–3 | 6.1 | −0.12 | 0.0 | 73% |
| Clara Neeland | South River High School | 0.46 | 0.35 | 2–7 | 2.1 | −0.12 | 0.0 | 71% |
| Charles Geraghty | Archbishop Spalding | 1.52 | 1.37 | 5–4 | 5.1 | −0.15 | 0.0 | 74% |
| Ann Martino | Archbishop Spalding | 1.03 | 0.88 | 5–4 | 5.1 | −0.15 | 0.0 | 74% |
| James Stahl | Walt Whitman High School | 0.19 | -0.80 | 1–8 | 1.7 | −0.98 | 0.3 | 89% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Admirals 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Vikings | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Zags | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Saints | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Buccaneers | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Admirals 2 | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Falcons | 2-3-6 |
| 5 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
St. John's College | 3-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Vikings | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Admirals 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Buccaneers | 3-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Admirals 2 | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Zags | 2-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Saints | 3-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Falcons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
St. John's College | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Buccaneers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Admirals 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Vikings | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Admirals 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Falcons | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Zags | 3-4-6 |
| 15 | |
Saints | 1-2-5 | def. | |
St. John's College | 3-4-6 |
| 16 | |
Admirals 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Buccaneers | 4-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Cavaliers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Seahawks | 1-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Falcons | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Vikings | 3-4-6 |
| 19 | |
Admirals 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Saints | 4-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Zags | 1-2-3 | def. | |
St. John's College | 4-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Admirals 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 3-4-6 |
| 22 | |
Falcons | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Buccaneers | 1-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Saints | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Seahawks | 2-4-5 |
| 24 | |
Zags | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Vikings | 3-4-6 |
| 25 | |
Admirals 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
St. John's College | 4-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Falcons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 4-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Admirals 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Saints | 4-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Zags | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Buccaneers | 3-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Admirals 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahawks | 4-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Vikings | 1-2-3 | def. | |
St. John's College | 4-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Falcons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Saints | 4-5-6 |
| 32 | |
Zags | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 2-3-6 |
| 33 | |
Admirals 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Admirals 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 34 | |
Buccaneers | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Vikings | 2-4-5 |
| 35 | |
Seahawks | 1-4-5 | def. | |
St. John's College | 2-3-6 |
| 36 | |
Zags | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Saints | 3-4-6 |
| 37 | |
Admirals 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Falcons | 4-5-6 |
| 38 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Vikings | 4-5-6 |
| 39 | |
Admirals 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahawks | 4-5-6 |
| 40 | |
Buccaneers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
St. John's College | 4-5-6 |
| 41 | |
Admirals 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Zags | 4-5-6 |
| 42 | |
Saints | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Vikings | 3-4-5 |
| 43 | |
Falcons | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-5 |
| 44 | |
Cavaliers | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Buccaneers | 2-5-6 |
| 45 | |
Admirals 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
St. John's College | 4-5-6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.14 means a rating gap counts about 12% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
