South River High School '26
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.37 (fleet 0.63) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.02 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 3–20 (13%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 1 | 1–13 | — |
| Spring 2025 | 1 | 2–7 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (23 matches) the record is 3–20 against 4.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.7). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | MDISA Team Race | skipper | 0.67 | -0.84 | 1–13 | 2.6 | −1.51 | 1.2 | 95% |
| 2025-04-06 | MDISA Severn Team Race | skipper | 0.24 | 0.13 | 2–7 | 2.1 | −0.12 | 0.0 | 71% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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