MDISA WRSC Tier 1 Regatta

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 98
2 Southern High School Southern High School Bulldogs 101
3 Indian Creek School Indian Creek School Eagles 130
4 Yorktown High School Yorktown High School Patriots 146
5 Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Panthers 152
6 South River High School South River High School Seahawks 153
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
Indian Creek School Indian Creek School Eagles A 1 1 1 6 1 1 1 1 4 1 18 Conor Mastromarco '25
Arabelle Gemmell '25
Southern High School Southern High School Bulldogs A 4 2 2 2 7 2 5 2 3 5 34 Sophie Griggs '24 [1-10]
Nola Primeaux '25 [1-6, 9-10]
Melissa Fletcher '24 [7-8]
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders A 2 3 5 1 3 8 9 6 5 2 44 David Abbott '23
Everett Moulds '25
Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Panthers A 5 6 4 3 8 5 2 4 8 6 51 James Ronayne '24 [1-10]
Robert Bauer '26 [1-6]
Rylee Landry '27 [7-10]
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders B 3 4 3 4 5 6 3 7 6 OCS 54 Will Clay '25
Douglass Abbott '23
South River High School South River High School Seahawks A 8 9 6 5 2 3 4 5 7 7 56 Hayden Medick '26 [1-2]
Michael Grube '24 [3-10]
Zen Corby '26 [1-2]
Naomi Schrader '24 [3-4]
Owen Harrington '25 [5-6, 9-10]
Finn Dwyer '26 [7-8]
Yorktown High School Yorktown High School Patriots A 6 5 7 8 9 4 7 3 2 8 59 Brady Briggs '23 [1-4]
Caroline Odell '23 [5-10]
Eric Johnson '23 [1-2]
Amelia Thomas '23 [3-8]
Brady Briggs '23 [9-10]
Southern High School Southern High School Bulldogs B 7 7 10 10 6 7 8 8 1 3 67 Molly Dowling '25 [1-8]
Scott Opert '24 [9-10]
Lara Nielsen '24 [1-8]
Molly Dowling '25 [9-10]
Yorktown High School Yorktown High School Patriots B 9 10 8 7 12 9 10 9 9 4 87 Jack Sieg '24 [1-4, 7-8]
Eric Johnson '23 [5-6, 9-10]
Amelia Thomas '23 [1-2]
Elizabeth Gans '24 [3-10]
South River High School South River High School Seahawks B 11 11 11 11 4 10 6 11 12 BKD 97 Lily Moss '25 [1-4, 9]
Clara Neeland '26 [5-8, 10]
Clara Neeland '26 [1-4, 9]
Lily Moss '25 [5-8, 10]
Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Panthers B 12 8 9 9 10 12 11 10 10 10 101 Henry Meyer '25 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Connor Lamm-Knipscher '23 [3-4, 7-8]
Connor Lamm-Knipscher '23 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Henry Meyer '25 [3-4, 7-8]
Indian Creek School Indian Creek School Eagles B 10 12 12 12 11 11 12 12 11 9 112 Owen Crum '27
Alex Miller '25
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.130+0.13
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2023 (3 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A
Annapolis High SchoolAnnapolis High School Panthers1122334455
Indian Creek SchoolIndian Creek School Eagles2211121211111010
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders3344556677
South River High SchoolSouth River High School Seahawks443322111212
Southern High SchoolSouthern High School Bulldogs5566778899
Yorktown High SchoolYorktown High School Patriots6655443322

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B
Annapolis High SchoolAnnapolis High School Panthers77889910101111
Indian Creek SchoolIndian Creek School Eagles8877665544
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders9910101111121211
South River High SchoolSouth River High School Seahawks101099887766
Southern High SchoolSouthern High School Bulldogs11111212112233
Yorktown High SchoolYorktown High School Patriots1212111110109988
School / Team SkipperCrew
Annapolis High School Annapolis High School James Ronayne '24 [1-10] Robert Bauer '26 [1-6]
Rylee Landry '27 [7-10]
Panthers Henry Meyer '25 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Connor Lamm-Knipscher '23 [3-4, 7-8]
Connor Lamm-Knipscher '23 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Henry Meyer '25 [3-4, 7-8]
Indian Creek School Indian Creek School Conor Mastromarco '25 Arabelle Gemmell '25
Eagles Owen Crum '27 Alex Miller '25
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School David Abbott '23 Everett Moulds '25
Raiders Will Clay '25 Douglass Abbott '23
South River High School South River High School Hayden Medick '26 [1-2]
Michael Grube '24 [3-10]
Zen Corby '26 [1-2]
Naomi Schrader '24 [3-4]
Owen Harrington '25 [5-6, 9-10]
Finn Dwyer '26 [7-8]
Seahawks Lily Moss '25 [1-4, 9]
Clara Neeland '26 [5-8, 10]
Clara Neeland '26 [1-4, 9]
Lily Moss '25 [5-8, 10]
Southern High School Southern High School Sophie Griggs '24 [1-10] Nola Primeaux '25 [1-6, 9-10]
Melissa Fletcher '24 [7-8]
Bulldogs Molly Dowling '25 [1-8]
Scott Opert '24 [9-10]
Lara Nielsen '24 [1-8]
Molly Dowling '25 [9-10]
Yorktown High School Yorktown High School Brady Briggs '23 [1-4]
Caroline Odell '23 [5-10]
Eric Johnson '23 [1-2]
Amelia Thomas '23 [3-8]
Brady Briggs '23 [9-10]
Patriots Jack Sieg '24 [1-4, 7-8]
Eric Johnson '23 [5-6, 9-10]
Amelia Thomas '23 [1-2]
Elizabeth Gans '24 [3-10]

Conditions — 04/29/2023 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 80%  ·  Pressure 1008.8 hPa

Temperature

62°F
↑ 67°F   ↓ 54°F
Feels like 62°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.6 kn
avg  ·  max 5.8 kn
Gusts to 13.2 kn
From NNE (32°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover97% Sunshine8.8 hrs Humidity80% Pressure1008.8 hPa Rain0.01 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at West River Sailing Club: an underdogs’ day (−0.04)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.08 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.04
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.51 ± 0.23)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at West River Sailing Club by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 1 labelled days at West River Sailing Club, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →