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MDISA Gunston Spring '23 T3

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 26 11 37
2 Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 13 24 37
3 Gunston Gunston Herons 1 22 20 42
4 Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 34 16 50
5 Southern High School Southern High School Bulldogs 28 32 60
6 Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 24 38 62
7 South River High School South River High School Seahawks 33 30 63
8 Gunston Gunston Herons 2 53 41 94
9 Rockbridge Academy Rockbridge Academy Scots 44 51 95
10 Generals Generals Generals 51 51 MRP 102 MRP
11 Blazers Blazers Blazers 41 63 MRP 104 MRP
12 Quakers Quakers Quakers 49 MRP 56 105 MRP
13 St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 57 51 108
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 6 1 2 1 3 13 Maria Mercier '25
Allie Clark '26
Gunston Gunston Herons 1 2 9 7 3 1 22 Wylie Keegan '25
Alix Allison '25
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 4 3 1 11 5 24 James Biles '27
Preston Allen '27
Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 1 4 4 8 9 26 Joseph Dibonaventuro '26 [1-5]
Nolan Wingate '28 [1-3]
Thomas Birchfield '27 [4-5]
Southern High School Southern High School Bulldogs 10 7 3 2 6 28 Maggie Dowling '27
Melissa Fletcher '24
South River High School South River High School Seahawks 3 13 6 7 4 33 Fiona O'Rourke '28 [1]
Hayden Medick '26 [2-5]
Carter Steiert '27 [1, 4-5]
Zen Corby '26 [2-3]
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 7 2 9 4 12 34 Everett Moulds '26
Cormac Flynn '24
Blazers Blazers Blazers 8 6 11 6 10 41
Rockbridge Academy Rockbridge Academy Scots 9 10 5 12 8 44 Dylan Roemer '25 [1-2, 5]
Harry Mcmahon '25 [3-4]
Joel Mcmahon '26 [1-2]
Lizzie Jeffords '23 [3-4]
Naomi Schrader '24 [5]
Quakers Quakers Quakers 5 5 8 9 2 49 MRP
Generals Generals Generals 12 8 10 10 11 51
Gunston Gunston Herons 2 11 11 13 5 13 53 Harrison Lavery '26 [1-3]
Thomas Callahan '24 [4-5]
Owen Daffron '25 [1-2]
Eli Schut '17 [3-5]
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 13 12 12 13 7 57 Grace Wilcox '26
Georgia Mudd '26
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 4 3 2 1 1 11 Thomas Birchfield '27 [1-5]
Joseph Dibonaventuro '26 [1-3]
Nolan Wingate '28 [4-5]
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 6 4 1 3 2 16 Jared Werner '25
Nicholas Kitts '25
Gunston Gunston Herons 1 3 1 3 5 8 20 Julia Buchanan '23 [1-3]
Justin Mccubbin '25 [4-5]
Annabelle Baker '26 [1-3]
Caroline Thomas '26 [4-5]
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 5 6 BKD BKD 3 24 John Mercier '27
Samuel Glauner '27
South River High School South River High School Seahawks 1 2 10 7 10 30 Clara Neeland '26 [1-3]
Lily Moss '25 [4-5]
Everett Barker '25 [1-3]
Annika Fisher '25 [4-5]
Southern High School Southern High School Bulldogs 8 12 5 2 5 32 Liam Grigg '28 [1-5]
Rory Campbell '28 [1-3]
Lucianno Russo '27 [4-5]
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 9 5 9 4 11 38 Brooke Hayward '23
Teagan Leigh '28
Gunston Gunston Herons 2 2 11 13 8 7 41 Ben Gilbert '25 [1-2]
Gianni Figliozzi '26 [3-5]
Alex Mcintyre '25 [1-2]
Ethan Mcwilliams '25 [3-5]
Generals Generals Generals 7 10 4 6 4 51 MRP
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 12 7 11 12 9 51 Richard Anderson '26
Joseph Carter '26
Rockbridge Academy Rockbridge Academy Scots 13 9 7 10 12 51 Maddie Atwood '26 [1-3]
Finn Dwyer '26 [4-5]
Corrin Hakala '26 [1-3]
Owen Harrington '25 [4-5]
Quakers Quakers Quakers 11 13 8 11 13 56
Blazers Blazers Blazers 10 8 6 13 6 63 MRP
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.150+0.15
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2021 (12 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
QuakersQuakers Quakers11144
Great Mills High SchoolGreat Mills High School Hornets2221111
Kent Island High SchoolKent Island High School Buccaneers5551010
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders8881212
BlazersBlazers Blazers1010101313
PatuxentPatuxent Panthers1212121414
Rockbridge AcademyRockbridge Academy Scots1313131515
South River High SchoolSouth River High School Seahawks1414141717
Southern High SchoolSouthern High School Bulldogs1515151818
St. Mary's RykenSt. Mary's Ryken Knights17171711
GunstonGunston Herons 144455
GunstonGunston Herons 211111188
GeneralsGenerals Generals18181822

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B
QuakersQuakers Quakers22222
Great Mills High SchoolGreat Mills High School Hornets44444
Kent Island High SchoolKent Island High School Buccaneers88888
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders1010101010
BlazersBlazers Blazers1212121212
PatuxentPatuxent Panthers1313131313
Rockbridge AcademyRockbridge Academy Scots1414141414
South River High SchoolSouth River High School Seahawks1515151515
Southern High SchoolSouthern High School Bulldogs1717171717
St. Mary's RykenSt. Mary's Ryken Knights1818181818
GunstonGunston Herons 11111111111
GunstonGunston Herons 255555
GeneralsGenerals Generals11111
School / Team SkipperCrew
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Maria Mercier '25 Allie Clark '26
Hornets John Mercier '27 Samuel Glauner '27
Gunston Gunston Wylie Keegan '25 Alix Allison '25
Herons 1 Julia Buchanan '23 [1-3]
Justin Mccubbin '25 [4-5]		 Annabelle Baker '26 [1-3]
Caroline Thomas '26 [4-5]
Gunston Gunston Harrison Lavery '26 [1-3]
Thomas Callahan '24 [4-5]		 Owen Daffron '25 [1-2]
Eli Schut '17 [3-5]
Herons 2 Ben Gilbert '25 [1-2]
Gianni Figliozzi '26 [3-5]		 Alex Mcintyre '25 [1-2]
Ethan Mcwilliams '25 [3-5]
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School James Biles '27 Preston Allen '27
Buccaneers Brooke Hayward '23 Teagan Leigh '28
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Everett Moulds '26 Cormac Flynn '24
Raiders Jared Werner '25 Nicholas Kitts '25
Patuxent Patuxent Joseph Dibonaventuro '26 [1-5] Nolan Wingate '28 [1-3]
Thomas Birchfield '27 [4-5]
Panthers Thomas Birchfield '27 [1-5] Joseph Dibonaventuro '26 [1-3]
Nolan Wingate '28 [4-5]
Rockbridge Academy Rockbridge Academy Dylan Roemer '25 [1-2, 5]
Harry Mcmahon '25 [3-4]		 Joel Mcmahon '26 [1-2]
Lizzie Jeffords '23 [3-4]
Naomi Schrader '24 [5]
Scots Maddie Atwood '26 [1-3]
Finn Dwyer '26 [4-5]		 Corrin Hakala '26 [1-3]
Owen Harrington '25 [4-5]
South River High School South River High School Fiona O'Rourke '28 [1]
Hayden Medick '26 [2-5]		 Carter Steiert '27 [1, 4-5]
Zen Corby '26 [2-3]
Seahawks Clara Neeland '26 [1-3]
Lily Moss '25 [4-5]		 Everett Barker '25 [1-3]
Annika Fisher '25 [4-5]
Southern High School Southern High School Maggie Dowling '27 Melissa Fletcher '24
Bulldogs Liam Grigg '28 [1-5] Rory Campbell '28 [1-3]
Lucianno Russo '27 [4-5]
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Grace Wilcox '26 Georgia Mudd '26
Knights Richard Anderson '26 Joseph Carter '26

Conditions — 05/06/2023 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 52%  ·  Pressure 1024.7 hPa

Temperature

65°F
↑ 70°F   ↓ 51°F
Feels like 64°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.2 kn
avg  ·  max 5.7 kn
Gusts to 14.8 kn
From NW (319°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover13% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity52% Pressure1024.7 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at The Gunston: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.13)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.17 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.04
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.22 ± 0.24)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.13 means a rating gap counts about 12% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at The Gunston by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 3 labelled days at The Gunston, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →