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MDISA TAYC Fleet

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Severn School Severn School Admirals 23 12 35
2 Gunston Gunston Herons 15 29 44
3 Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 24 26 50
4 Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Panthers 64 21 85
5 Southern High School Southern High School Bulldogs 43 45 88
6 St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 65 38 103
7 South River High School South River High School Seahawks 71 35 106
8 Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 45 62 107
9 The Tome School The Tome School Titans 55 58 113
10 Severna Park Severna Park Falcons 47 76 123
11 Notre Dame Preparatory School Notre Dame Preparatory School Blazers 72 76 148
12 Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 60 93 153
13 Loyola Blakefield Loyola Blakefield Dons 81 74 155
14 Maret Maret Frogs 74 89 163
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Gunston Gunston Herons 1 1 3 2 4 1 3 15 Andrew Shingledecker '27
Isabella Ford '27
Severn School Severn School Admirals 3 2 1 1 13 2 1 23 Antoine Ismael '27
Lila Knoepfle '27
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 10 3 2 3 1 3 2 24 Cece Carey '28
Saoirse Taylor '28
Southern High School Southern High School Bulldogs 6 5 7 6 5 10 4 43 Maggie Dowling '27
Carter Steiert '27
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 2 4 OCS 5 3 6 10 45 Rosie Benson '27
Abigail Burritt '25
Severna Park Severna Park Falcons 4 13 4 4 2 OCS 5 47 Pierce Brenner '25
Tanner Strom '23
The Tome School The Tome School Titans 5 11 5 13 6 8 7 55 Nathaniel Wyman '28 [1-7]
Gideon Garber '28 [1-4]
Ellie Niekrash '29 [5-7]
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 7 10 6 7 11 7 12 60 Adam Kurpiewski '27 [1-7]
Vika Ferus '27 [1-2, 5-6]
Sloane Fagiolo '27 [3-4, 7]
Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Panthers 8 6 OCS 8 14 5 8 64 Casey Burman '28
Gideon Santana '28
St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 12 8 12 10 8 4 11 65 Nola Mccamley '30
Barrett Mouritzen '23
South River High School South River High School Seahawks 11 9 11 11 7 9 13 71 Hayden Medick '26
Fiona O'Rourke '27
Notre Dame Preparatory School Notre Dame Preparatory School Blazers 9 12 10 12 9 11 9 72 Claire Rowland '26
Gina Varacalle-Goetz '27
Maret Maret Frogs 13 14 8 9 12 12 6 74 Ethan Mcwilliams '25 [1-7]
Blake Gezelle '27 [1-2, 5-6]
Luc Tetreault '27 [3-4, 7]
Loyola Blakefield Loyola Blakefield Dons 14 7 9 14 10 13 14 81 George Shaeffer '26
Eli Eib '26
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Severn School Severn School Admirals 1 1 1 1 1 5 2 12 Chris Hanson '27
Ana Fishback '27
Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Panthers 2 2 3 2 3 8 1 21 Casey Burman '28
Gideon Santana '28
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 3 4 7 3 2 3 4 26 Victor Kleppinger '25
Nate Scwaninger '29
Gunston Gunston Herons 6 3 2 9 5 1 3 29 Lizzy Chiochetti '27 [1-7]
Alix Allison '25 [1-2, 5-7]
Sophia Bernas '25 [3-4]
South River High School South River High School Seahawks 4 6 5 4 6 4 6 35 Lily Moss '25 [1-7]
Rory Campbell '27 [1-4]
Clara Neeland '26 [5-7]
St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 5 8 4 6 4 6 5 38 Delaney Carter '28
Ellie Dorman '29
Southern High School Southern High School Bulldogs 7 5 11 5 7 2 8 45 Molly Dowling '25 [1-7]
Melissa Fletcher '24 [1-4]
Lucianno Russo '27 [5-7]
The Tome School The Tome School Titans 9 7 6 7 9 10 10 58 Abigayle Wyman '25
Emerson Stehl '26
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 8 9 13 8 8 9 7 62 Skyler Krinetz '25
Felicia Gomoljak '26
Loyola Blakefield Loyola Blakefield Dons 13 10 8 13 12 7 11 74 Sebastian Haber '27
Jacob Davis '26
Severna Park Severna Park Falcons 10 12 9 10 11 12 12 76 Brighid Barry '27
Notre Dame Preparatory School Notre Dame Preparatory School Blazers 11 11 10 12 10 13 9 76 Sophia Hammond '26
Eloise Graf '26
Maret Maret Frogs 14 14 12 11 13 11 14 89 Ryan Mills '27
Quinn Barone '27
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 12 13 14 14 14 RDG 13 93 No Show
Charlotte Ryan '25
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.060+0.06
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2016 (22 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A
Annapolis High SchoolAnnapolis High School Panthers1133557
Archbishop SpaldingArchbishop Spalding Cavaliers2244668
Broadneck High SchoolBroadneck High School Bruins3355779
Loyola BlakefieldLoyola Blakefield Dons55779911
MaretMaret Frogs6688101012
Notre Dame Preparatory SchoolNotre Dame Preparatory School Blazers7799111113
Sts. Peter & PaulSts. Peter & Paul Sabres131311335
Severn SchoolSevern School Admirals881010121214
Severna ParkSeverna Park Falcons99111113131
South River High SchoolSouth River High School Seahawks1010121214142
Southern High SchoolSouthern High School Bulldogs11111313113
St. Mary's High School (MD)St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints12121414224
GunstonGunston Herons44668810
The Tome SchoolThe Tome School Titans141422446

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B
Annapolis High SchoolAnnapolis High School Panthers2244668
Archbishop SpaldingArchbishop Spalding Cavaliers3355779
Broadneck High SchoolBroadneck High School Bruins44668810
Loyola BlakefieldLoyola Blakefield Dons6688101012
MaretMaret Frogs7799111113
Notre Dame Preparatory SchoolNotre Dame Preparatory School Blazers881010121214
Sts. Peter & PaulSts. Peter & Paul Sabres141422446
Severn SchoolSevern School Admirals99111113131
Severna ParkSeverna Park Falcons1010121214142
South River High SchoolSouth River High School Seahawks11111313113
Southern High SchoolSouthern High School Bulldogs12121414224
St. Mary's High School (MD)St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints131311335
GunstonGunston Herons55779911
The Tome SchoolThe Tome School Titans1133557
School / Team SkipperCrew
Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Casey Burman '28 Gideon Santana '28
Panthers Casey Burman '28 Gideon Santana '28
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Adam Kurpiewski '27 [1-7] Vika Ferus '27 [1-2, 5-6]
Sloane Fagiolo '27 [3-4, 7]
Cavaliers No Show Charlotte Ryan '25
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Rosie Benson '27 Abigail Burritt '25
Bruins Skyler Krinetz '25 Felicia Gomoljak '26
Gunston Gunston Andrew Shingledecker '27 Isabella Ford '27
Herons Lizzy Chiochetti '27 [1-7] Alix Allison '25 [1-2, 5-7]
Sophia Bernas '25 [3-4]
Loyola Blakefield Loyola Blakefield George Shaeffer '26 Eli Eib '26
Dons Sebastian Haber '27 Jacob Davis '26
Maret Maret Ethan Mcwilliams '25 [1-7] Blake Gezelle '27 [1-2, 5-6]
Luc Tetreault '27 [3-4, 7]
Frogs Ryan Mills '27 Quinn Barone '27
Notre Dame Preparatory School Notre Dame Preparatory School Claire Rowland '26 Gina Varacalle-Goetz '27
Blazers Sophia Hammond '26 Eloise Graf '26
Severn School Severn School Antoine Ismael '27 Lila Knoepfle '27
Admirals Chris Hanson '27 Ana Fishback '27
Severna Park Severna Park Pierce Brenner '25 Tanner Strom '23
Falcons Brighid Barry '27
South River High School South River High School Hayden Medick '26 Fiona O'Rourke '27
Seahawks Lily Moss '25 [1-7] Rory Campbell '27 [1-4]
Clara Neeland '26 [5-7]
Southern High School Southern High School Maggie Dowling '27 Carter Steiert '27
Bulldogs Molly Dowling '25 [1-7] Melissa Fletcher '24 [1-4]
Lucianno Russo '27 [5-7]
St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Nola Mccamley '30 Barrett Mouritzen '23
Saints Delaney Carter '28 Ellie Dorman '29
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Cece Carey '28 Saoirse Taylor '28
Sabres Victor Kleppinger '25 Nate Scwaninger '29
The Tome School The Tome School Nathaniel Wyman '28 [1-7] Gideon Garber '28 [1-4]
Ellie Niekrash '29 [5-7]
Titans Abigayle Wyman '25 Emerson Stehl '26

Conditions — 04/07/2024 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 46%  ·  Pressure 1019.0 hPa

Temperature

55°F
↑ 61°F   ↓ 44°F
Feels like 48°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.4 kn
avg  ·  max 11.0 kn
Gusts to 23.3 kn
From NNW (335°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover22% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity46% Pressure1019.0 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Saints Peter & Paul: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.20)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.10 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.30
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.11 ± 0.12)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.20 means a rating gap counts about 17% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Saints Peter & Paul by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 3 labelled days at Saints Peter & Paul, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →