Severn School '27
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.69 (fleet 2.65) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.05 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 14–1 (93%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2025 | 1 | 6–0 | — |
| Spring 2025 | 1 | 8–1 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (15 matches) the record is 14–1 against 11.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+2.7). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 4 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-05 | MDISA Team Race Qualifier | skipper | 1.87 | 4.87 | 6–0 | 4.3 | ≥+3.00 | 3.4 | 5% |
| 2025-04-06 | MDISA Severn Team Race | skipper | 1.63 | 3.56 | 8–1 | 7.0 | +1.93 | 1.0 | 32% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| MDISA Varsity Championship | Skipper | A | 3 | 2.0 | 3.98 |
| MDISA DC Sail T1 - Spring 2026 | Skipper | A | 8 | 3.2 | 2.21 |
| Fall 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| MDISA Team Race Qualifier | Skipper | TR | 6 | 100% | — |
| MDISA DC Sail T1 Fleet Race | Skipper | A | 7 | 3.9 | 2.68 |
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| MDISA Severn Team Race | Skipper | TR | 9 | 89% | — |
| 2025 T1 Fleet Championship | Skipper | B | 5 | 2.2 | 3.42 |
| Fall 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| MDISA DC Sail T1 Fleet Race | Skipper | B | 7 | 3.0 | 2.49 |
| MASSA Fall Invitational | Skipper | A | 10 | 5.7 | 1.60 |
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| MDISA TAYC Fleet | Skipper | A | 7 | 3.3 | 2.14 |
| MDISA BCSC May Tier 2 Regatta | Skipper | A | 4 | 1.5 | 3.84 |
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| MDISA Varsity Champs | Skipper | B | 3 | 2.7 | 2.57 |
| MDISA Fleet Race (South) | Skipper | B | 7 | 2.1 | 2.98 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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