| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Severn School | Admirals 2 | 6–0 |
| 2 | |
Severn School | Admirals 1 | 5–1 |
| 3 | |
Severn School | Admirals 4 | 3–3 |
| 4 | |
Severn School | Admirals 3 | 3–3 |
| 5 |  |
Key School | Zags | 3–3 |
| 6 |  |
Archbishop Spalding | Cavaliers | 1–5 |
| 7 |  |
Severna Park | Falcons | 0–6 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 12,908 team race matches sailed before 2025-10-05, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 18 of 21 matches (86%) with a log-loss of 0.316 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.04 ± 0.51: a typical event, more orderly than 43% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Severn School Admirals 2 | 6.42 | 9.42 | 6–0 | 4.3 | ≥+3.00 | 3.4 | 5% |
| 5 | Key School Zags | 4.66 | 4.99 | 3–3 | 2.8 | +0.33 | 0.0 | 60% |
| 3 | Severn School Admirals 4 | 5.04 | 4.97 | 3–3 | 3.1 | −0.07 | 0.0 | 72% |
| 4 | Severn School Admirals 3 | 5.03 | 4.92 | 3–3 | 3.1 | −0.11 | 0.0 | 73% |
| 6 | Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers | 3.62 | 1.83 | 1–5 | 1.8 | −1.78 | 0.8 | 97% |
| 2 | Severn School Admirals 1 | 8.91 | 6.95 | 5–1 | 5.7 | −1.96 | 0.9 | 98% |
| 7 | Severna Park Falcons | 0.65 | -2.35 | 0–6 | 0.2 | ≤−3.00 | 0.3 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mohler | Severn School | 1.97 | 4.97 | 6–0 | 4.3 | ≥+3.00 | 3.4 | 5% |
| Antoine Ismael | Severn School | 1.87 | 4.87 | 6–0 | 4.3 | ≥+3.00 | 3.4 | 5% |
| Chris Hanson | Severn School | 2.48 | 5.48 | 6–0 | 4.3 | ≥+3.00 | 3.4 | 5% |
| Casey Burman | Key School | 1.60 | 1.93 | 3–3 | 2.8 | +0.33 | 0.0 | 60% |
| Trey Waters | Key School | 2.05 | 2.38 | 3–3 | 2.8 | +0.33 | 0.0 | 60% |
| Ethan Purdon | Key School | 1.19 | 1.53 | 3–3 | 2.8 | +0.33 | 0.0 | 60% |
| Caroline (Cc) Carey | Severn School | 1.35 | 1.28 | 3–3 | 3.1 | −0.07 | 0.0 | 72% |
| Ashton Perkins | Severn School | 2.01 | 1.89 | 3–3 | 3.1 | −0.11 | 0.0 | 73% |
| Natalie Gaver | Severn School | 1.86 | 1.75 | 3–3 | 3.1 | −0.11 | 0.0 | 73% |
| Colin Schwab | Severn School | 2.12 | 0.92 | 1–3 | 1.6 | −1.20 | 0.4 | 92% |
| Ann Martino | Archbishop Spalding | 1.08 | -0.70 | 1–5 | 1.8 | −1.78 | 0.8 | 97% |
| Charles Geraghty | Archbishop Spalding | 1.11 | -0.67 | 1–5 | 1.8 | −1.78 | 0.8 | 97% |
| Annie Sitzmann | Severn School | 3.08 | 1.12 | 5–1 | 5.7 | −1.96 | 0.9 | 98% |
| Harrison Szot | Severn School | 2.82 | 0.85 | 5–1 | 5.7 | −1.96 | 0.9 | 98% |
| Alex Baker | Severn School | 2.96 | 0.99 | 5–1 | 5.7 | −1.96 | 0.9 | 98% |
| Logan Nield | Severna Park | 0.28 | -2.72 | 0–6 | 0.2 | ≤−3.00 | 0.3 | >99% |
| Isabel Albert | Severna Park | -0.92 | -3.92 | 0–6 | 0.2 | ≤−3.00 | 0.3 | >99% |
| William Albert | Severna Park | 1.27 | -1.73 | 0–6 | 0.2 | ≤−3.00 | 0.3 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Severn School Admirals 3 | Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers | 73% | |
| 1 | 2 | Severn School Admirals 2 | Severn School Admirals 4 | 75% | |
| 1 | 3 | Severn School Admirals 1 | Key School Zags | 96% | |
| 1 | 4 | Severn School Admirals 3 | Severna Park Falcons | 97% | |
| 1 | 5 | Severn School Admirals 2 | Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers | 90% | |
| 1 | 6 | Severn School Admirals 1 | Severn School Admirals 4 | 95% | |
| 1 | 7 | Key School Zags | Severna Park Falcons | 96% | |
| 1 | 8 | Severn School Admirals 2 | Severn School Admirals 3 | 75% | |
| 1 | 9 | Severn School Admirals 1 | Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers | 98% | |
| 1 | 10 | Severn School Admirals 4 | Key School Zags | 50% | |
| 1 | 11 | Severn School Admirals 2 | Severna Park Falcons | 99% | |
| 1 | 12 | Severn School Admirals 1 | Severn School Admirals 3 | 95% | |
| 1 | 13 | Key School Zags | Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers | 68% | |
| 1 | 14 | Severn School Admirals 4 | Severna Park Falcons | 97% | |
| 1 | 15 | Severn School Admirals 2 | Severn School Admirals 1 | 13% | upset |
| 1 | 16 | Key School Zags | Severn School Admirals 3 | 40% | upset |
| 1 | 17 | Severn School Admirals 4 | Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers | 77% | |
| 1 | 18 | Severn School Admirals 1 | Severna Park Falcons | 100% | |
| 1 | 19 | Severn School Admirals 2 | Key School Zags | 81% | |
| 1 | 20 | Severn School Admirals 3 | Severn School Admirals 4 | 48% | upset |
| 1 | 21 | Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers | Severna Park Falcons | 91% |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Admirals 3 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Admirals 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Admirals 4 | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Admirals 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Zags | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Admirals 3 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Falcons | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Admirals 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Admirals 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Admirals 4 | 3-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Zags | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Admirals 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Admirals 3 | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Admirals 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Admirals 4 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Zags | 3-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Admirals 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Falcons | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Admirals 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Admirals 3 | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Zags | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 3-4-6 |
| 14 | |
Admirals 4 | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Falcons | 2-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Admirals 2 | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Admirals 1 | 2-4-5 |
| 16 | |
Zags | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Admirals 3 | 1-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Admirals 4 | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 2-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Admirals 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Falcons | 4-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Admirals 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Zags | 3-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Admirals 3 | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Admirals 4 | 2-4-6 |
| 21 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Falcons | 4-5-6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 8% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
