Archbishop Spalding '26
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.91 (fleet 1.50) | 157 of 231 | −0.02 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 37–48 (44%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2025 | 2 | 1–7 | — |
| Spring 2025 | 3 | 12–25 | — |
| Spring 2024 | 2 | 12–8 | — |
| Fall 2023 | 2 | 12–8 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 7 graded regattas (82 matches) the record is 36–46 against 36.2 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.2). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 7 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-05 | MDISA Team Race Qualifier | skipper | 1.11 | -0.67 | 1–5 | 1.8 | −1.78 | 0.8 | 97% |
| 2025-04-26 | MASSA Baker Qualifier | skipper | 1.18 | -1.00 | 1–17 | 3.1 | −2.18 | 2.2 | 99% |
| 2025-04-06 | MDISA Severn Team Race | skipper | 1.52 | 1.37 | 5–4 | 5.1 | −0.15 | 0.0 | 74% |
| 2025-03-22 | MDISA SSA Team Race | skipper | 1.38 | 1.79 | 6–4 | 5.4 | +0.41 | 0.1 | 48% |
| 2024-04-27 | MASSA Team Championship and Baker Qualifier | skipper | 0.71 | 1.67 | 11–8 | 8.4 | +0.96 | 1.4 | 13% |
| 2023-10-14 | MASSA Team Race Championship | skipper | 0.33 | 1.77 | 4–2 | 2.6 | +1.45 | 1.1 | 21% |
| 2023-09-30 | MDISA Fall Team Race Champs (Qualifier) | skipper | 0.23 | -0.68 | 8–6 | 9.7 | −0.91 | 0.9 | 93% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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