MDISA DC Sail T1 Spring Opener

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 15 20 35
2 Severn School Severn School Admirals 32 5 37
3 Severna Park Severna Park Falcons 21 20 41
4 Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 8 35 43
5 Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 31 27 58
6 St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 33 29 62
7 Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 31 31 62
8 Southern High School Southern High School Bulldogs 33 32 65
9 Key School Key School Zags 51 35 86
10 Henderson High School Henderson High School Warriors 32 55 87
11 Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Panthers 51 50 101
12 Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Vikings 54 57 111
13 St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 57 59 116
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 2 2 1 2 1 8 Parker Herman '24
Taylor Collison '24
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 1 1 2 7 4 15 Joseph Murphy '24
Will Clay '25
Severna Park Severna Park Falcons 5 5 3 5 3 21 Peter Judge '25
Alexandria Still '27
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 7 10 5 4 5 31 Ryan Brelage '24
Alex Prior '24
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 9 4 6 6 RDG 31 Hartley Cooper '26
Riley Schnable '25
Severn School Severn School Admirals 6 6 9 9 2 32 Will Friedell '24
Natalie King '25
Henderson High School Henderson High School Warriors 8 3 4 10 7 32 Drew Defonzo '26
Maggie Defonzo '26
St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 4 11 8 1 9 33 Halsey Carter '26
James Chapman '27
Southern High School Southern High School Bulldogs 10 7 7 3 6 33 Scott Opert '24
Molly Dowling '25
Key School Key School Zags 3 13 13 11 11 51 Andrew Baker '24
Elizabeth Roesch '27
Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Panthers 11 12 12 8 8 51 Rylee Landry '27
Gemma Love '25
Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Vikings 13 8 10 13 10 54 Shane Churilla '25
Grace Shields '25
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 12 9 11 12 13 57 Leo Xiang '25
Logan Pavis '26
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Severn School Severn School Admirals 1 1 1 1 1 5 Harrison Szot '27
Maura Mcpartlin '25
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 4 2 4 8 2 20 James Lilyquist '24
Everett Moulds '26
Severna Park Severna Park Falcons 5 8 2 2 3 20 Gavin Morris '25
Henry Carlson '25
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 10 4 3 4 6 27 Louisa Kalinski '25
Daniel Schwaninger '26
St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 2 6 6 7 8 29 Finn Erickson '29
Aurelea Cerny '30
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 6 3 7 11 4 31 Adam Nilsson '25
Mac Fitzgerald '24
Southern High School Southern High School Bulldogs 3 11 8 5 5 32 Sophie Griggs '24
Eric Neilsen '24
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 7 5 5 6 12 35 Charles Geraghty '26 [1-2, 5]
Ann Martino '26 [3-4]
Maggie Mcinerney '25 [1-2, 5]
Key School Key School Zags 9 7 9 3 7 35 Trey Burman '25
Ben Coster '31
Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Panthers 8 10 11 10 11 50 Henry Meyer '25
Ellie Katz '27
Henderson High School Henderson High School Warriors 11 12 10 9 13 55 Peter Mazzagatti '26
Parker Li '26
Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Vikings 13 9 12 13 10 57 Marco Gessner Pilotto '25
Sara Corbett '25
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 12 13 13 12 9 59 Ethan Depaola '24
Michael Finarelli '25
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.220+0.22
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2024 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Annapolis High SchoolAnnapolis High School Panthers11335
Archbishop SpaldingArchbishop Spalding Cavaliers22446
Great Mills High SchoolGreat Mills High School Hornets33558
Key SchoolKey School Zags558810
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders669911
Henderson High SchoolHenderson High School Warriors44669
Sts. Peter & PaulSts. Peter & Paul Sabres1515113
Severn SchoolSevern School Admirals88101012
Severna ParkSeverna Park Falcons99111115
Southern High SchoolSouthern High School Bulldogs1010121216
St. Mary's RykenSt. Mary's Ryken Knights121216162
St. Mary's High School (MD)St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints111115151
Walt Whitman High SchoolWalt Whitman High School Vikings1616224

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B
Annapolis High SchoolAnnapolis High School Panthers22446
Archbishop SpaldingArchbishop Spalding Cavaliers33558
Great Mills High SchoolGreat Mills High School Hornets44669
Key SchoolKey School Zags669911
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders88101012
Henderson High SchoolHenderson High School Warriors558810
Sts. Peter & PaulSts. Peter & Paul Sabres1616224
Severn SchoolSevern School Admirals99111115
Severna ParkSeverna Park Falcons1010121216
Southern High SchoolSouthern High School Bulldogs111115151
St. Mary's RykenSt. Mary's Ryken Knights1515113
St. Mary's High School (MD)St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints121216162
Walt Whitman High SchoolWalt Whitman High School Vikings11335

Conditions — 03/16/2024 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 68%  ·  Pressure 1009.3 hPa

Temperature

49°F
↑ 52°F   ↓ 37°F
Feels like 42°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.2 kn
avg  ·  max 10.2 kn
Gusts to 23.9 kn
From SW (231°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover18% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity68% Pressure1009.3 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 6 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Wakefield (VA)/Walt Whitman: an underdogs’ day (−0.10)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.03 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.06
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.12 ± 0.14)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.10 means a rating gap counts about 8% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Wakefield (VA)/Walt Whitman by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 1 labelled days at Wakefield (VA)/Walt Whitman, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →