Severna Park '25
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 48.78 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.108 rating points from 54 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →| Season | Team | Rating | Range | League percentile |
Team percentile |
On team | Races | Team page |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 | Severna Park | 0.38 | 29.94 | 50.00 | 3 of 5 | 29 | Team page | |
| Fall 2022 | Severna Park | 0.14 | 19.45 | 50.00 | 3 of 5 | 12 | Team page |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| -0.10 (fleet -0.16) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as crew 3–26 (10%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2023 | 1 | — | 1–13 |
| Spring 2023 | 2 | — | 2–13 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (29 matches) the record is 3–26 against 3.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.6). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-09-30 | MDISA Fall Team Race Champs (Qualifier) | crew | 0.12 | -0.42 | 1–13 | 1.5 | −0.54 | 0.1 | 79% |
| 2023-04-01 | MDISA Team Race Qualifier | crew | 0.17 | 0.51 | 1–7 | 0.8 | +0.34 | 0.0 | 58% |
| 2023-03-18 | MDISA SSA Team Race | crew | 0.11 | -0.39 | 1–6 | 1.3 | −0.50 | 0.1 | 79% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| MDISA TAYC Varsity Regatta | Crew | B | 1 | 8.0 | — |
| MDISA Severn School Varsity Fleet Race | Crew | B | 3 | 5.7 | — |
| MDISA Fleet Race Qualifier | Crew | B | 10 | 3.8 | — |
| MASSA 2024 Fleet Championship & Mallory Qualifier | Crew | B | 10 | 13.2 | — |
| MDISA DC Sail T1 Spring Opener | Crew | B | 5 | 4.0 | — |
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| MDISA Varsity Champs | Crew | A | 3 | 7.7 | — |
| MDISA Tier 1 at SCC | Crew | A | 4 | 11.8 | — |
| MDISA Fall Team Race Champs (Qualifier) | Crew | TR | 14 | 7% | — |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| MDISA Team Race Qualifier | Crew | TR | 8 | 12% | — |
| MDISA SSA Team Race | Crew | TR | 7 | 14% | — |
| MDISA DC Sail Spring '23 T2 | Crew | B | 3 | 6.0 | — |
| MDISA BCSC Tier 3/Bronze Regatta | Skipper | B | 4 | 7.5 | -0.05 |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| MDISA SSA Fleet Race | Crew | A | — | — | — |
| MDISA DC Sail Fall '22 T3 | Crew | B | 3 | 5.3 | — |
| MDISA Gunston Fall '22 T2 | Crew | B | 7 | 8.9 | — |
| MDISA BCSC Silver Regatta #1 | Crew | B | 2 | 14.0 | — |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Henry Carlson |  Georgia Institute of Technology |
'28 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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