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MDISA Gunston Fall '22 T2

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Gunston Gunston Herons 1 21 26 47
2 Henderson High School Henderson High School Warriors 42 15 57
3 Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 72 12 84
4 Bishop O'Connell High School Bishop O'Connell High School Knights 57 27 84
5 Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 36 52 88
6 Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron 22 75 97
7 Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 26 81 107
8 Winston Churchill High School Winston Churchill High School Bulldogs 61 48 109
9 Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Varsity 49 61 110
10 St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 63 56 119
11 Gunston Gunston Herons 2 57 66 123
12 The Tome School The Tome School Titans 60 65 125
13 Severna Park Severna Park Falcons 77 62 139
14 Indian Creek School Indian Creek School Eagles 92 89 181
15 Severn School Severn School Admirals 112 112 224
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Gunston Gunston Herons 1 6 1 1 1 7 2 3 21 Tommy Mcgeady '25
Eli Moore '25
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron 1 2 2 5 2 8 2 22 Julian Dahiya '24
Eve Cintron '26
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 7 3 5 2 4 4 1 26 Ann Martino '25
Gabby Hartigan '26
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 2 8 3 7 6 1 9 36 William Fachet '23
Aidan Plank '24
Henderson High School Henderson High School Warriors 11 9 4 4 5 5 4 42 James Cottage '23
Finn Urie '26
Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Varsity 3 5 10 3 11 9 8 49 Luke Johnson '25 [1-7]
Sally Esquith '24 [1-2, 5-6]
Ricardo Shayer '25 [3-4, 7]
Bishop O'Connell High School Bishop O'Connell High School Knights 10 4 13 12 9 3 6 57 Eli Cummins '27 [1-2, 5-7]
John Wills '25 [3-4]
Morgan Rathjen '24 [1-4]
John Wills '25 [5-7]
Gunston Gunston Herons 2 13 12 7 6 1 11 7 57 Logan Kille '25 [1-7]
Harrison Lavery '26 [1-2]
Ben Gilbert '25 [3-4, 7]
Cooper Hightower '23 [5-6]
The Tome School The Tome School Titans 5 6 8 14 8 6 13 60 Victor Schlecker '26
John Arty '29
Winston Churchill High School Winston Churchill High School Bulldogs 8 7 12 10 3 7 14 61 Jack Sieg '24 [1-7]
Lila Gottenberg '25 [1-2, 5-6]
Erez Engler '25 [3-4, 7]
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 9 10 6 9 14 10 5 63 Robert Mascolo '25 [1-2, 5-6]
Max Breidert '24 [3-4, 7]
Max Breidert '24 [1-2, 5-6]
Robert Mascolo '25 [3-4, 7]
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 4 13 9 11 12 12 11 72 Erin Lawlor '26
Felicia Gomoljak '26
Severna Park Severna Park Falcons 14 11 11 8 10 13 10 77 Gavin Morris '25
Alexandria Still '27
Indian Creek School Indian Creek School Eagles 12 14 14 13 13 14 12 92 Irene Goldstein '25
Arabelle Gemmell '25
Severn School Severn School Admirals DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 112 No Show
No Show
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 1 2 1 2 2 2 2 12 No Show
No Show
Henderson High School Henderson High School Warriors 3 1 7 1 1 1 1 15 Drew Defonzo '26 [1-2, 5-7]
Peter Mazzagatti '26 [3-4]
Peter Mazzagatti '26 [1-2]
Maggie Defonzo '26 [3-7]
Gunston Gunston Herons 1 4 5 3 4 4 3 3 26 Ian Kissel '23
Matthew Periconi '24
Bishop O'Connell High School Bishop O'Connell High School Knights 2 4 2 8 3 4 4 27 William Lindsley '24
Sophia Carney '24
Winston Churchill High School Winston Churchill High School Bulldogs 12 6 5 9 6 5 5 48 Allison Sproles '23
Ava Kucko '24
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 5 3 9 11 8 6 10 52 Caden Latchaw '23
Audrey Valentino '24
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 10 9 6 3 10 9 9 56 Sam Somers '25
Ethan Depaola '24
Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Varsity 11 8 12 7 7 8 8 61 William Kessner '23
Deniz Ayhan '24
Severna Park Severna Park Falcons 7 14 8 5 14 7 7 62 Robert Heath '25
Henry Carlson '25
The Tome School The Tome School Titans 6 7 4 10 13 12 13 65 Jack Lewin '27
Emerson Stehl '26
Gunston Gunston Herons 2 8 11 11 6 9 10 11 66 Lilah Paddy '24 [1-2]
Annabelle Sinatra '24 [3-4]
Jed Cohen '26 [5-7]
Lucia Melchiorre '25 [1-2]
Alix Allison '25 [3-4]
Caeden Harrison '24 [5-7]
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron 9 12 13 13 11 11 6 75 Nathan Van Doorn '24
Espem Herrera '26
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 14 10 10 14 5 14 14 81 Charles Geraghty '26
Charlotte Ryan '25
Indian Creek School Indian Creek School Eagles 13 13 14 12 12 13 12 89 Magnolia Mckenna '23
Ryan Mills '27
Severn School Severn School Admirals DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 112 No Show
No Show
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.150+0.15
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2021 (12 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A
Archbishop SpaldingArchbishop Spalding Cavaliers1133558
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HSBethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron881111131315
Bishop O'Connell High SchoolBishop O'Connell High School Knights33558811
Broadneck High SchoolBroadneck High School Bruins4477101012
Indian Creek SchoolIndian Creek School Eagles10101212141416
Kent Island High SchoolKent Island High School Buccaneers11111313151517
Henderson High SchoolHenderson High School Warriors22447710
Severn SchoolSevern School Admirals1212141416161
Severna ParkSeverna Park Falcons1313151517172
St. Mary's RykenSt. Mary's Ryken Knights14141616113
GunstonGunston Herons 15588111113
GunstonGunston Herons 2771010121214
The Tome SchoolThe Tome School Titans15151717224
Walt Whitman High SchoolWalt Whitman High School Varsity161611335
Winston Churchill High SchoolWinston Churchill High School Bulldogs171722447

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B
Archbishop SpaldingArchbishop Spalding Cavaliers2244777
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HSBethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron10101212141414
Bishop O'Connell High SchoolBishop O'Connell High School Knights4477101010
Broadneck High SchoolBroadneck High School Bruins5588111111
Indian Creek SchoolIndian Creek School Eagles11111313151515
Kent Island High SchoolKent Island High School Buccaneers12121414161616
Henderson High SchoolHenderson High School Warriors3355888
Severn SchoolSevern School Admirals13131515171717
Severna ParkSeverna Park Falcons14141616111
St. Mary's RykenSt. Mary's Ryken Knights15151717222
GunstonGunston Herons 1771010121212
GunstonGunston Herons 2881111131313
The Tome SchoolThe Tome School Titans161611333
Walt Whitman High SchoolWalt Whitman High School Varsity171722444
Winston Churchill High SchoolWinston Churchill High School Bulldogs1133555
School / Team SkipperCrew
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Ann Martino '25 Gabby Hartigan '26
Cavaliers Charles Geraghty '26 Charlotte Ryan '25
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Julian Dahiya '24 Eve Cintron '26
Battlin' Baron Nathan Van Doorn '24 Espem Herrera '26
Bishop O'Connell High School Bishop O'Connell High School Eli Cummins '27 [1-2, 5-7]
John Wills '25 [3-4]		 Morgan Rathjen '24 [1-4]
John Wills '25 [5-7]
Knights William Lindsley '24 Sophia Carney '24
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Erin Lawlor '26 Felicia Gomoljak '26
Bruins No Show No Show
Gunston Gunston Tommy Mcgeady '25 Eli Moore '25
Herons 1 Ian Kissel '23 Matthew Periconi '24
Gunston Gunston Logan Kille '25 [1-7] Harrison Lavery '26 [1-2]
Ben Gilbert '25 [3-4, 7]
Cooper Hightower '23 [5-6]
Herons 2 Lilah Paddy '24 [1-2]
Annabelle Sinatra '24 [3-4]
Jed Cohen '26 [5-7]		 Lucia Melchiorre '25 [1-2]
Alix Allison '25 [3-4]
Caeden Harrison '24 [5-7]
Henderson High School Henderson High School James Cottage '23 Finn Urie '26
Warriors Drew Defonzo '26 [1-2, 5-7]
Peter Mazzagatti '26 [3-4]		 Peter Mazzagatti '26 [1-2]
Maggie Defonzo '26 [3-7]
Indian Creek School Indian Creek School Irene Goldstein '25 Arabelle Gemmell '25
Eagles Magnolia Mckenna '23 Ryan Mills '27
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School William Fachet '23 Aidan Plank '24
Buccaneers Caden Latchaw '23 Audrey Valentino '24
Severn School Severn School No Show No Show
Admirals No Show No Show
Severna Park Severna Park Gavin Morris '25 Alexandria Still '27
Falcons Robert Heath '25 Henry Carlson '25
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Robert Mascolo '25 [1-2, 5-6]
Max Breidert '24 [3-4, 7]		 Max Breidert '24 [1-2, 5-6]
Robert Mascolo '25 [3-4, 7]
Knights Sam Somers '25 Ethan Depaola '24
The Tome School The Tome School Victor Schlecker '26 John Arty '29
Titans Jack Lewin '27 Emerson Stehl '26
Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Luke Johnson '25 [1-7] Sally Esquith '24 [1-2, 5-6]
Ricardo Shayer '25 [3-4, 7]
Varsity William Kessner '23 Deniz Ayhan '24
Winston Churchill High School Winston Churchill High School Jack Sieg '24 [1-7] Lila Gottenberg '25 [1-2, 5-6]
Erez Engler '25 [3-4, 7]
Bulldogs Allison Sproles '23 Ava Kucko '24

Conditions — 10/09/2022 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 52%  ·  Pressure 1023.3 hPa

Temperature

57°F
↑ 60°F   ↓ 49°F
Feels like 51°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.1 kn
avg  ·  max 8.5 kn
Gusts to 19.2 kn
From WSW (254°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine10.8 hrs Humidity52% Pressure1023.3 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at The Gunston: an underdogs’ day (−0.04)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.10 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.06
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.12 ± 0.14)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at The Gunston by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 3 labelled days at The Gunston, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →