MDISA DC Sail Fall '22 T3

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Key School Key School Zags 1 13 5 18
2 Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Vikings 15 8 23
3 Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 15 12 27
4 South River High School South River High School Seahawks 7 30 37
5 McLean High School McLean High School Highlanders 17 28 45
6 St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 20 25 45
7 Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 39 10 49
8 Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 11 41 52
9 Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Panthers 2 24 30 54
10 Severna Park Severna Park Falcons 41 16 57
11 Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Panthers 1 38 20 58
12 Key School Key School Zags 2 18 41 59
13 Indian Creek School Indian Creek School Eagles 29 43 72
14 St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 37 35 72
15 Winston Churchill High School Winston Churchill High School Bulldogs 44 28 72
16 Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 40 38 78
17 Severn School Severn School Admirals 54 54 108
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 TOT Sailors
South River High School South River High School Seahawks 3 1 3 7 Fiona O'Rourke '28
Carter Steiert '27
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 2 8 1 11 Noelle Davis '25
Addison Davis '25
Key School Key School Zags 1 5 3 5 13 Antoine Ismael '25
Brenden Frank '23
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 4 7 4 15 Everett Moulds '25
Jared Werner '25
Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Vikings 8 5 2 15 Phoebe Milhollin '24 [1-3]
Xena Seghal '27 [1-2]
Amelia Thomas '23 [3]
McLean High School McLean High School Highlanders 1 10 6 17 Emmett Nash '28
Chi Chi Chao '27
Key School Key School Zags 2 7 2 9 18 Mary Hayes Cobbum '27
Maya Kirshtein '26
St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 6 4 10 20 James Chapman '27
Charles Langemak '24
Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Panthers 2 11 6 7 24 Ella Schubert '27
Rylee Landry '27
Indian Creek School Indian Creek School Eagles 9 9 11 29 Irene Goldstein '25
Arabelle Gemmell '25
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 10 12 15 37 Cooper Wright '26 [1-2]
Leo Xiang '25 [3]
Evan Gavin '26 [1-2]
Michael Finarelli '25 [3]
Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Panthers 1 12 13 13 38 Connor Lamm-Knipscher '23
Catherine Kammeier '26
Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 15 16 8 39 Joseph Dibonaventuro '26
Nolan Wingate '28
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 13 11 16 40 Andrea Runk '24 [1-3]
Victoria Corwin '26 [1-2]
Garrison Corwin '26 [3]
Severna Park Severna Park Falcons 14 15 12 41 Gavin Morris '25
Alexandria Still '27
Winston Churchill High School Winston Churchill High School Bulldogs 16 14 14 44 Erez Engler '25
Jonah Molinoff '25
Severn School Severn School Admirals DNS DNS DNS 54 No Show
No Show
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 TOT Sailors
Key School Key School Zags 1 3 1 1 5 Ana Fishback '27
Elizabeth Roesch '27
Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Vikings 1 3 4 8 Luke Johnson '25 [1-3]
Ethan Brodnax '24 [1]
Sebastian Yurcisin '25 [2-3]
Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 5 2 3 10 Caroline Fuller '24
Lillie Fuller '24
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 2 4 6 12 Will Grah '25
Cormac Flynn '24
Severna Park Severna Park Falcons 4 5 7 16 Robert Heath '25
Henry Carlson '25
Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Panthers 1 8 7 5 20 Henry Meyer '25
Breanna Browning '23
St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 6 9 10 25 Lizzy Chiochetti '26
Kevin Feldtmose '24
McLean High School McLean High School Highlanders 11 6 11 28 Rebecca Snyder '27 [1]
Riley Purcell '24 [2-3]
Riley Purcell '24 [1]
Annie Mershon '27 [2-3]
Winston Churchill High School Winston Churchill High School Bulldogs DNF 8 2 28 Lila Gottenberg '25 [1]
Amory Smith '26 [2-3]
Sadie Haas '25 [1]
Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Panthers 2 10 11 9 30 Charlie Willmarth '25
Gemma Love '25
South River High School South River High School Seahawks 12 10 8 30 Lily Moss '25
Will Vaughn '25
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 7 13 15 35 Joseph Carter '26
Alex Smith '25
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 13 12 13 38 Austin Williams '23
Maddie Bly '27
Key School Key School Zags 2 9 16 16 41 Quinn Curry '25
Matthew Cook '23
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 15 14 12 41 Audrey Nelson '28
Reed Carey '25
Indian Creek School Indian Creek School Eagles 14 15 14 43 Alex Miller '25
Sean Cogburn '25
Severn School Severn School Admirals DNS DNS DNS 54 No Show
No Show
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.060+0.06
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2022 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A
Annapolis High SchoolAnnapolis High School Panthers 1113
Annapolis High SchoolAnnapolis High School Panthers 2224
Broadneck High SchoolBroadneck High School Bruins335
Great Mills High SchoolGreat Mills High School Hornets446
Indian Creek SchoolIndian Creek School Eagles557
Key SchoolKey School Zags 1668
Key SchoolKey School Zags 2779
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders8810
McLean High SchoolMcLean High School Highlanders9911
PatuxentPatuxent Panthers101012
Severn SchoolSevern School Admirals111114
Severna ParkSeverna Park Falcons121215
South River High SchoolSouth River High School Seahawks141416
St. Mary's RykenSt. Mary's Ryken Knights161618
St. Mary's High School (MD)St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints151517
Walt Whitman High SchoolWalt Whitman High School Vikings17171
Winston Churchill High SchoolWinston Churchill High School Bulldogs18182

Division B

Team1B2B3B
Annapolis High SchoolAnnapolis High School Panthers 1224
Annapolis High SchoolAnnapolis High School Panthers 2335
Broadneck High SchoolBroadneck High School Bruins446
Great Mills High SchoolGreat Mills High School Hornets557
Indian Creek SchoolIndian Creek School Eagles668
Key SchoolKey School Zags 1779
Key SchoolKey School Zags 28810
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders9911
McLean High SchoolMcLean High School Highlanders101012
PatuxentPatuxent Panthers111114
Severn SchoolSevern School Admirals121215
Severna ParkSeverna Park Falcons141416
South River High SchoolSouth River High School Seahawks151517
St. Mary's RykenSt. Mary's Ryken Knights17171
St. Mary's High School (MD)St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints161618
Walt Whitman High SchoolWalt Whitman High School Vikings18182
Winston Churchill High SchoolWinston Churchill High School Bulldogs113
School / Team SkipperCrew
Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Connor Lamm-Knipscher '23 Catherine Kammeier '26
Panthers 1 Henry Meyer '25 Breanna Browning '23
Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Ella Schubert '27 Rylee Landry '27
Panthers 2 Charlie Willmarth '25 Gemma Love '25
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Andrea Runk '24 [1-3] Victoria Corwin '26 [1-2]
Garrison Corwin '26 [3]
Bruins Austin Williams '23 Maddie Bly '27
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Noelle Davis '25 Addison Davis '25
Hornets Audrey Nelson '28 Reed Carey '25
Indian Creek School Indian Creek School Irene Goldstein '25 Arabelle Gemmell '25
Eagles Alex Miller '25 Sean Cogburn '25
Key School Key School Antoine Ismael '25 Brenden Frank '23
Zags 1 Ana Fishback '27 Elizabeth Roesch '27
Key School Key School Mary Hayes Cobbum '27 Maya Kirshtein '26
Zags 2 Quinn Curry '25 Matthew Cook '23
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Everett Moulds '25 Jared Werner '25
Raiders Will Grah '25 Cormac Flynn '24
McLean High School McLean High School Emmett Nash '28 Chi Chi Chao '27
Highlanders Rebecca Snyder '27 [1]
Riley Purcell '24 [2-3]
Riley Purcell '24 [1]
Annie Mershon '27 [2-3]
Patuxent Patuxent Joseph Dibonaventuro '26 Nolan Wingate '28
Panthers Caroline Fuller '24 Lillie Fuller '24
Severn School Severn School No Show No Show
Admirals No Show No Show
Severna Park Severna Park Gavin Morris '25 Alexandria Still '27
Falcons Robert Heath '25 Henry Carlson '25
South River High School South River High School Fiona O'Rourke '28 Carter Steiert '27
Seahawks Lily Moss '25 Will Vaughn '25
St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) James Chapman '27 Charles Langemak '24
Saints Lizzy Chiochetti '26 Kevin Feldtmose '24
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Cooper Wright '26 [1-2]
Leo Xiang '25 [3]
Evan Gavin '26 [1-2]
Michael Finarelli '25 [3]
Knights Joseph Carter '26 Alex Smith '25
Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Phoebe Milhollin '24 [1-3] Xena Seghal '27 [1-2]
Amelia Thomas '23 [3]
Vikings Luke Johnson '25 [1-3] Ethan Brodnax '24 [1]
Sebastian Yurcisin '25 [2-3]
Winston Churchill High School Winston Churchill High School Erez Engler '25 Jonah Molinoff '25
Bulldogs Lila Gottenberg '25 [1]
Amory Smith '26 [2-3]
Sadie Haas '25 [1]

Conditions — 10/16/2022 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 51%  ·  Pressure 1014.7 hPa

Temperature

64°F
↑ 70°F   ↓ 51°F
Feels like 62°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
2.8 kn
avg  ·  max 5.4 kn
Gusts to 11.9 kn
From SW (223°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover74% Sunshine9.3 hrs Humidity51% Pressure1014.7 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 4 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at McLean/Walt Whitman: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.12)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.15 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.27
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.43 ± 0.23)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.12 means a rating gap counts about 10% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at McLean/Walt Whitman by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 1 labelled days at McLean/Walt Whitman, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →