Key School '27
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.95 (fleet 1.50) | 154 of 231 | +0.02 ± 0.16 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 34–56 (38%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 2 | 11–18 | — |
| Fall 2025 | 2 | 3–17 | — |
| Spring 2025 | 3 | 16–18 | — |
| Spring 2024 | 1 | 4–3 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 8 graded regattas (90 matches) the record is 34–56 against 33.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.5). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | MASSA 2026 Team Race Championship/Baker Qualifier | skipper | 1.29 | 0.49 | 3–9 | 4.1 | −0.80 | 0.5 | 88% |
| 2026-04-11 | MDISA Team Race | skipper | 1.26 | 2.05 | 8–9 | 6.4 | +0.79 | 0.7 | 24% |
| 2025-10-18 | MASSA Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.26 | 1.05 | 2–12 | 2.2 | −0.20 | 0.0 | 73% |
| 2025-10-05 | MDISA Team Race Qualifier | skipper | 1.30 | -0.48 | 1–5 | 1.8 | −1.78 | 0.8 | 97% |
| 2025-04-12 | MDISA Baker Pre-Qualifier | skipper | 1.49 | 1.11 | 5–10 | 5.7 | −0.38 | 0.1 | 78% |
| 2025-04-06 | MDISA Severn Team Race | skipper | 1.44 | 1.29 | 5–4 | 5.1 | −0.15 | 0.0 | 74% |
| 2025-03-22 | MDISA SSA Team Race | skipper | 1.23 | 1.64 | 6–4 | 5.4 | +0.41 | 0.1 | 48% |
| 2024-04-13 | MDISA Team Race Qualifier | skipper | 0.69 | 1.90 | 4–3 | 2.8 | +1.21 | 0.8 | 26% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| MDISA TAYC Varsity Regatta | Skipper | B | 4 | 8.8 | 0.70 |
| MDISA Team Race Qualifier | Skipper | TR | 7 | 57% | — |
| MDISA Spring 2024 Varsity Championship | Skipper | B | 6 | 9.8 | -0.13 |
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| MDISA Varsity Champs | Skipper | B | 1 | 13.0 | -2.25 |
| MDISA Girls Open 2023 Fall Regatta | Skipper | A | 9 | 7.0 | -0.92 |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| MDISA WRSC Spring Tier 2/Silver Regatta | Skipper | B | 2 | 8.0 | -0.37 |
| MDISA DC Sail Spring '23 T2 | Skipper | B | 5 | 4.2 | 0.38 |
| MDISA BCSC Tier 2 Regatta | Skipper | B | 2 | 5.0 | 0.53 |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| MDISA DC Sail Fall '22 T3 | Skipper | A | 3 | 6.0 | 0.85 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Mary Hayes Cobbum |  Archbishop Spalding |
'27 |
| ISSA | Mary Hayes Cobbum |  Annapolis High School |
'27 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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