MASSA 2026 Team Race Championship/Baker Qualifier

Pre-event forecast?

Fitted on the 13,407 team race matches sailed before 2026-04-25, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 55 of 66 matches (83%) with a log-loss of 0.399 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness −0.13 ± 0.27: a typical event, more orderly than 31% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Severn School Admirals	1	8.41	Annie Sitzmann / Charlotte Macdonald 2.94 Alex Baker / Ana Fishback 2.77 Harrison Szot / Brooke Perchinsky 2.76 10–2 Will Mohler / Brooke Perchinsky 2.03 1–0 Harrison Szot / Hudson Grow 2.77 1–0	85%	12–2 (86%)	+0.1
2	Christchurch School Seahorses One	2	7.73 school +0.28	Elliott Lipp / Sarah Moore 2.40 Wylder Smith / Bennett Moss 2.82 Wyatt Lipp / Cindy Zhang 2.21	76%	12–2 (86%)	+1.3
3	Christian Brothers Academy Colts	3	7.59 school +0.22	Chris Small / Joseph Boracchia 2.70 Jules Buczkowski / Christos Lambrou 2.35 Cole Buczkowski / Alex Pistolakis 2.27	75%	11–3 (79%)	+0.6
4	Norfolk Academy Bulldogs One	6	5.69 school +0.23	Grant Fernandez / David Martin 1.01 James Allgeier / Addie Lesley 2.97 6–7 Eliana Mopper / Will Poynter 1.47 6–7 James Allgeier / Juliana Libby 3.06 1–0 Mady Mcgee / Addie Lesley 1.18 1–0	47%	7–7 (50%)	+0.4
4	The Stony Brook School Bears	5	5.99 school −0.14	Arancha Rivero-Ansed / Eric Panebianco 2.27 Carlos Gonzalez / Jp Panebianco 2.24 Ian Ainger / Nora Beaver 1.58	51%	7–7 (50%)	−0.2
6	Rye High School Garnets One	9	3.86 school +0.30	Clemmie Kavanaugh / Mark Lieshaj 0.96 4–7 Hugo Sacristan / Jenna Kloepfer 1.23 3–7 Kai Mcculloch / Will Prime 1.34 4–3 Kai Mcculloch / Maddie Waddington 1.34 1–4 Hugo Sacristan / Maddie Waddington 1.18 2–2 Clemmie Kavanaugh / Will Prime 0.89 1–2 Kai Mcculloch / Mark Lieshaj 1.41 0–2	23%	5–9 (36%)	+1.8
7	Key School Zags	4	5.62 school +0.05	Ethan Purdon / Charlotte Lian 1.36 3–5 Casey Burman / Ben Coster 1.84 2–5 Trey Waters / Elizabeth Roesch 2.28 2–4 Casey Burman / Paige Asbill 1.94 2–3 Ethan Purdon / Gideon Santana 1.41 1–3 Trey Waters / Gideon Santana 2.27 1–2 Trey Waters / Paige Asbill 2.37 1–2	62%	4–8 (33%)	−3.5
8	Gunston Herons	8	3.00	Andrew Shingledecker / Kate Doffermyre 1.38 Mercer Rensberger / Caroline Thomas 0.54 Preston Allen / Ethan Paniere 0.82	25%	3–9 (25%)	+0.0
9	Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers	7	3.57 home +0.13	Alex Julian / Vika Ferus 0.89 Ann Martino / Emily Julian 1.25 Mary Hayes Cobbum / Liam Peterson 1.27	33%	3–9 (25%)	−0.9
10	Maury High School Commodores	10	2.12 school −0.07	Lenox Wakefield / Colin Moorhouse 0.18 Tucker Mcgrady / Cooper Longhini 1.48 Elias Bowes / Ryan Mouak 0.54 2–5 Elias Bowes / Kaelynn Valencia 0.41 0–5	14%	2–10 (17%)	+0.4

Surprisal: who beat their rating?

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
6	Rye High School	3.86	5.12	5–9	3.2	+1.26	1.4	14%
2	Christchurch School	7.73	8.76	12–2	10.7	+1.02	0.7	28%
3	Christian Brothers Academy	7.59	7.98	11–3	10.4	+0.39	0.1	49%
10	Maury High School	2.12	2.48	2–10	1.6	+0.36	0.1	51%
4	Norfolk Academy	5.69	5.92	7–7	6.6	+0.23	0.1	53%
1	Severn School	8.41	8.46	12–2	11.9	+0.05	0.0	66%
8	Gunston	3.00	3.05	3–9	2.9	+0.04	0.0	63%
4	The Stony Brook School	5.99	5.88	7–7	7.2	−0.11	0.0	68%
9	Archbishop Spalding	3.57	2.85	3–9	3.9	−0.72	0.4	87%
7	Key School	5.62	3.20	4–8	7.4	−2.42	4.8	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Hugo Sacristan	Rye High School	1.23	2.49	5–9	3.2	+1.26	1.4	14%
Kai Mcculloch	Rye High School	1.34	2.60	5–9	3.2	+1.26	1.4	14%
Clemmie Kavanaugh	Rye High School	0.96	2.23	5–9	3.2	+1.26	1.4	14%
Wylder Smith	Christchurch School	2.82	3.84	12–2	10.7	+1.02	0.7	28%
Wyatt Lipp	Christchurch School	2.21	3.23	12–2	10.7	+1.02	0.7	28%
Cole Buczkowski	Christian Brothers Academy	2.27	2.66	11–3	10.4	+0.39	0.1	49%
Elias Bowes	Maury High School	0.54	0.91	2–10	1.6	+0.36	0.1	51%
Lenox Wakefield	Maury High School	0.18	0.54	2–10	1.6	+0.36	0.1	51%
Grant Fernandez	Norfolk Academy	1.01	1.24	7–7	6.6	+0.23	0.1	53%
Annie Sitzmann	Severn School	2.94	2.99	12–2	11.9	+0.05	0.0	66%
Alex Baker	Severn School	2.77	2.82	12–2	11.9	+0.05	0.0	66%
Andrew Shingledecker	Gunston	1.38	1.42	3–9	2.9	+0.04	0.0	63%
Harrison Szot	Severn School	2.76	2.79	11–2	11.0	+0.04	0.0	67%
Arancha Rivero-Ansed	The Stony Brook School	2.27	2.16	7–7	7.2	−0.11	0.0	68%
Carlos Gonzalez	The Stony Brook School	2.24	2.13	7–7	7.2	−0.11	0.0	68%
Alex Julian	Archbishop Spalding	0.89	0.17	3–9	3.9	−0.72	0.4	87%
Ann Martino	Archbishop Spalding	1.25	0.53	3–9	3.9	−0.72	0.4	87%
Trey Waters	Key School	2.28	-0.14	4–8	7.4	−2.42	4.8	>99%
Casey Burman	Key School	1.84	-0.58	4–8	7.4	−2.42	4.8	>99%
Ethan Purdon	Key School	1.36	-1.06	4–8	7.4	−2.42	4.8	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

#	Winner				Loser		Pos.
1		Admirals	1-2-3	def.		Garnets One	4-5-6
2		Seahorses One	1-2-3	def.		Herons	4-5-6
3		Colts	1-2-3	def.		Cavaliers	4-5-6
4		Bears	1-2-3	def.		Zags	4-5-6
5		Bulldogs One	1-2-5	def.		Commodores	3-4-6
6		Garnets One	1-2-5	def.		Herons	3-4-6
7		Admirals	1-2-3	def.		Cavaliers	4-5-6
8		Seahorses One	1-2-6	def.		Bears	3-4-5
9		Colts	1-2-3	def.		Bulldogs One	4-5-6
10		Zags	1-2-4	def.		Commodores	3-5-6
11		Herons	1-3-6	def.		Cavaliers	2-4-5
12		Bears	1-2-4	def.		Garnets One	3-5-6
13		Bulldogs One	2-3-5	def.		Admirals	1-4-6
14		Seahorses One	1-2-5	def.		Zags	3-4-6
15		Colts	1-2-4	def.		Commodores	3-5-6
16		Bears	1-2-4	def.		Cavaliers	3-5-6
17		Bulldogs One	1-2-3	def.		Herons	4-5-6
18		Garnets One	1-2-5	def.		Zags	3-4-6
19		Colts	1-2-5	def.		Admirals	3-4-6
20		Seahorses One	1-2-3	def.		Commodores	4-5-6
21		Bears	1-2-4	def.		Bulldogs One	3-5-6
22		Cavaliers	1-3-6	def.		Zags	2-4-5
23		Colts	1-2-3	def.		Herons	4-5-6
24		Seahorses One	1-2-5	def.		Garnets One	3-4-6
25		Admirals	1-2-3	def.		Commodores	4-5-6
26		Bulldogs One	1-2-5	def.		Zags	3-4-6
27		Colts	1-2-6	def.		Bears	3-4-5
28		Seahorses One	1-2-3	def.		Cavaliers	4-5-6
29		Admirals	1-2-3	def.		Herons	4-5-6
30		Garnets One	1-2-4	def.		Commodores	3-5-6
31		Colts	1-2-5	def.		Zags	3-4-6
32		Seahorses One	1-2-5	def.		Bulldogs One	3-4-6
33		Admirals	1-2-5	def.		Bears	3-4-6
34		Garnets One	1-3-4	def.		Cavaliers	2-5-6
35		Commodores	1-2-6	def.		Herons	3-4-5
36		Seahorses One	1-3-5	def.		Colts	2-4-6
37		Admirals	1-2-3	def.		Zags	4-5-6
38		Garnets One	1-3-5	def.		Bulldogs One	2-4-6
39		Bears	1-2-3	def.		Herons	4-5-6
40		Cavaliers	1-2-6	def.		Commodores	3-4-5
41		Admirals	1-2-4	def.		Seahorses One	3-5-6
42		Colts	1-2-4	def.		Garnets One	3-5-6
43		Zags	1-2-4	def.		Herons	3-5-6
44		Bulldogs One	1-2-5	def.		Cavaliers	3-4-6
45		Bears	1-2-3	def.		Commodores	4-5-6
48		Herons	1-2-6	def.		Cavaliers	3-4-5
51		Zags	1-2-3	def.		Commodores	4-5-6
54		Cavaliers	1-2-6	def.		Commodores	3-4-5
57		Herons	1-3-5	def.		Zags	2-4-6
60		Zags	1-2-3	def.		Cavaliers	4-5-6
63		Commodores	1-2-6	def.		Herons	3-4-5
46		Seahorses One	1-2-4	def.		Garnets One	3-5-6
47		Colts	1-2-5	def.		Bears	3-4-6
49		Admirals	1-2-4	def.		Bulldogs One	3-5-6
50		Bears	2-3-4	def.		Garnets One	1-5-6
52		Admirals	1-2-6	def.		Seahorses One	3-4-5
53		Colts	1-2-3	def.		Bulldogs One	4-5-6
55		Admirals	1-2-4	def.		Bears	3-5-6
56		Colts	1-2-3	def.		Garnets One	4-5-6
58		Seahorses One	2-3-4	def.		Bulldogs One	1-5-6
59		Admirals	1-3-5	def.		Colts	2-4-6
61		Seahorses One	1-2-4	def.		Bears	3-5-6
62		Bulldogs One	1-2-6	def.		Garnets One	3-4-5
64		Seahorses One	1-2-5	def.		Colts	3-4-6
65		Admirals	1-2-3	def.		Garnets One	4-5-6
66		Bulldogs One	1-2-4	def.		Bears	3-5-6

	School	Team	Skippers	Crew
	Severn School	Admirals	Alex Baker '26 Annie Sitzmann '26 Harrison Szot '27 Will Mohler '27	Ana Fishback '27 Charlotte Macdonald '26 Brooke Perchinsky '27 Hudson Grow '28
	Christchurch School	Seahorses One	Elliott Lipp '26 Wyatt Lipp '28 Wylder Smith '27	Sarah Moore '29 Cindy Zhang '28 Bennett Moss '26
	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts	Christopher Small '26 Cole Buczkowski '27 Jules Buczkowski '26	Joseph Boracchia '28 Alex Pistolakis '29 Christos Lambrou '29
	Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs One	Eliana Mopper '26 Grant Fernandez '27 James Allgeier '27 Mady Mcgee '27	Will Poynter '27 David Martin '26 Addie Lesley '26 Juliana Libby '28
	The Stony Brook School	Bears	Arancha Rivero-Ansed '27 Carlos Gonzalez '28 Ian Ainger '28	Eric Panebianco '29 Jp Panebianco '27 Nora Beaver '27
	Rye High School	Garnets One	Clemmie Kavanaugh '29 Hugo Sacristan '26 Kai Mcculloch '27	Mark Lieshaj '26 Will Prime '28 Jenna Kloepfer '28 Maddie Waddington '28
	Key School	Zags	Casey Burman '28 Ethan Purdon '29 Trey Waters '29	Paige Asbill '31 Ben Coster '31 Charlotte Lian '29 Gideon Santana '28 Elizabeth Roesch '27
	Gunston	Herons	Andrew Shingledecker '27 Mercer Rensberger '29 Preston Allen '27	Kate Doffermyre '28 Caroline Thomas '26 Ethan Paniere '27
	Archbishop Spalding	Cavaliers	Alex Julian '28 Ann Martino '26 Mary Hayes Cobbum '27	Vika Ferus '27 Emily Julian '28 Liam Peterson '29
	Maury High School	Commodores	Elias Bowes '27 Lenox Wakefield '27 Tucker Mcgrady '26	Ryan Mouak '28 Kaelynn Valencia '27 Colin Moorhouse '27 Cooper Longhini '28