Key School '29
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.86 (fleet 1.43) | 166 of 231 | −0.03 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 25–24 (51%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 2 | 17–12 | — |
| Fall 2025 | 2 | 8–12 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (49 matches) the record is 25–24 against 26.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.9). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 6 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | MASSA 2026 Team Race Championship/Baker Qualifier | skipper | 1.20 | -1.14 | 4–8 | 7.4 | −2.34 | 4.6 | >99% |
| 2026-04-11 | MDISA Team Race | skipper | 1.15 | 2.58 | 13–4 | 11.2 | +1.42 | 1.4 | 16% |
| 2025-10-18 | MASSA Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.22 | 0.78 | 5–9 | 5.6 | −0.44 | 0.1 | 80% |
| 2025-10-05 | MDISA Team Race Qualifier | skipper | 1.19 | 1.53 | 3–3 | 2.8 | +0.33 | 0.0 | 60% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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