MDISA Team Race

Pre-event forecast?

Fitted on the 13,107 team race matches sailed before 2026-04-11, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 49 of 62 matches (79%) with a log-loss of 0.382 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness −0.21 ± 0.30: a typical event, more orderly than 27% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Severn School Admirals 1	1	8.76	Annie Sitzmann / Annabelle Ulak 2.98 Alex Baker / Ana Fishback 2.82 9–1 Harrison Szot / Charlotte Macdonald 2.95 9–1 Alex Baker / Charlotte Macdonald 2.89 7–0 Harrison Szot / Hudson Grow 2.79 7–0	96%	16–1 (94%)	−0.4
2	Key School Zags	3	5.46	Casey Burman / Gideon Santana 1.78 Trey Waters / Elizabeth Roesch 2.29 9–4 Ethan Purdon / Charlotte Lian 1.31 10–2 Ethan Purdon / Paige Asbill 1.43 3–2 Trey Waters / Paige Asbill 2.29 4–0	67%	13–4 (76%)	+1.7
3	Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers	5	3.28 school −0.08, home +0.09	Ann Martino / Emily Julian 1.19 Mary Hayes Cobbum / Dylan Cinque 1.24 Alex Julian / Liam Peterson 0.70 8–7 Alex Julian / Vika Ferus 0.87 0–2	36%	8–9 (47%)	+1.9
4	Gunston Herons	7	2.87	Andrew Shingledecker / Kate Doffermyre Preston Allen / Ella Von Voss Mercer Rensberger / Annabelle Baker	29%	5–12 (29%)	+0.0
5	Severn School Admirals 2	2	6.47	Colin Schwab / Ellie Lawrence 2.34 Will Tweed / Isabella Ford 1.79 Ashton Perkins / Parker Lefever-Farino 2.16	79%	10–4 (71%)	−1.1
6	Severna Park Falcons	6	2.92 school −0.22	Marshall Brockett / Alexandria Still Gil Glister / Isaiah Beauchamp 0.26 William Albert / Gabrielle Mckenna 1.04	32%	5–9 (36%)	+0.5
7	Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres	4	3.26	Hartley Cooper / Jonas Middleton 1.21 Justin Callahan / Ian Cox Gene Williams / Abby Tucker	38%	4–10 (29%)	−1.3
8	South River High School Seahawks	8	1.79 school +0.21	Hayden Medick / Matthew Treatman-Clark 0.71 Tomas ... / Rory Campbell 1–11 Fiona O'Rourke / John ... 0.57 1–11 Tomas ... / John ... 0–2 Fiona O'Rourke / Finn Fraser 0.58 0–2	17%	1–13 (7%)	−1.3

Surprisal: who beat their rating?

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
2	Key School Zags	5.46	6.72	13–4	11.3	+1.27	1.1	20%
3	Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers	3.28	4.22	8–9	6.1	+0.94	1.0	19%
6	Severna Park Falcons	2.92	3.19	5–9	4.5	+0.27	0.1	50%
4	Gunston Herons	2.87	2.89	5–12	5.0	+0.02	0.0	61%
1	Severn School Admirals 1	8.76	8.10	16–1	16.4	−0.66	0.1	87%
7	Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres	3.26	2.51	4–10	5.3	−0.76	0.6	89%
5	Severn School Admirals 2	6.47	5.49	10–4	11.1	−0.98	0.6	92%
8	South River High School Seahawks	1.79	0.48	1–13	2.3	−1.32	0.9	93%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Casey Burman	Key School	1.78	3.05	13–4	11.3	+1.27	1.1	20%
Trey Waters	Key School	2.29	3.55	13–4	11.3	+1.27	1.1	20%
Ethan Purdon	Key School	1.31	2.58	13–4	11.3	+1.27	1.1	20%
Ann Martino	Archbishop Spalding	1.19	2.13	8–9	6.1	+0.94	1.0	19%
Alex Julian	Archbishop Spalding	0.70	1.64	8–9	6.1	+0.94	1.0	19%
Marshall Brockett	Severna Park	1.58	1.84	5–9	4.5	+0.27	0.1	50%
William Albert	Severna Park	1.04	1.30	5–9	4.5	+0.27	0.1	50%
Andrew Shingledecker	Gunston	1.16	1.18	5–12	5.0	+0.02	0.0	61%
Annie Sitzmann	Severn School	2.98	2.32	16–1	16.4	−0.66	0.1	87%
Alex Baker	Severn School	2.82	2.16	16–1	16.4	−0.66	0.1	87%
Harrison Szot	Severn School	2.95	2.29	16–1	16.4	−0.66	0.1	87%
Hartley Cooper	Sts. Peter & Paul	1.21	0.45	4–10	5.3	−0.76	0.6	89%
Justin Callahan	Sts. Peter & Paul	0.48	-0.28	4–10	5.3	−0.76	0.6	89%
Gene Williams	Sts. Peter & Paul	1.16	0.40	4–10	5.3	−0.76	0.6	89%
Colin Schwab	Severn School	2.34	1.35	10–4	11.1	−0.98	0.6	92%
Ashton Perkins	Severn School	2.16	1.17	10–4	11.1	−0.98	0.6	92%
Tomas ...	South River High School	0.07	-1.24	1–13	2.3	−1.32	0.9	93%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

#	Winner				Loser		Pos.
1		Falcons	1-2-4	def.		Seahawks	3-5-6
2		Cavaliers	1-3-4	def.		Sabres	2-5-6
3		Zags	1-2-5	def.		Herons	3-4-6
4		Admirals 1	1-2-3	def.		Admirals 2	4-5-6
5		Falcons	1-2-6	def.		Cavaliers	3-4-5
6		Zags	1-2-4	def.		Seahawks	3-5-6
7		Admirals 2	1-2-3	def.		Sabres	4-5-6
8		Admirals 1	1-2-3	def.		Herons	4-5-6
9		Cavaliers	1-3-4	def.		Zags	2-5-6
10		Admirals 2	1-2-4	def.		Falcons	3-5-6
11		Herons	1-2-6	def.		Seahawks	3-4-5
12		Admirals 1	1-2-3	def.		Sabres	4-5-6
13		Zags	2-3-5	def.		Admirals 2	1-4-6
14		Cavaliers	1-3-4	def.		Herons	2-5-6
15		Falcons	1-3-5	def.		Sabres	2-4-6
16		Admirals 1	1-2-3	def.		Seahawks	4-5-6
17		Admirals 2	1-2-4	def.		Herons	3-5-6
18		Zags	1-2-3	def.		Sabres	4-5-6
19		Cavaliers	1-2-3	def.		Seahawks	4-5-6
20		Admirals 1	1-2-3	def.		Falcons	4-5-6
21		Sabres	1-2-5	def.		Herons	3-4-6
22		Admirals 2	1-2-3	def.		Seahawks	4-5-6
23		Zags	1-2-6	def.		Falcons	3-4-5
24		Admirals 1	1-2-3	def.		Cavaliers	4-5-6
25		Sabres	1-2-6	def.		Seahawks	3-4-5
26		Herons	1-2-5	def.		Falcons	3-4-6
27		Admirals 2	1-2-4	def.		Cavaliers	3-5-6
28		Admirals 1	1-2-3	def.		Zags	4-5-6
29		Falcons	1-4-5	def.		Seahawks	2-3-6
30		Cavaliers	1-3-5	def.		Sabres	2-4-6
31		Zags	1-2-6	def.		Herons	3-4-5
32		Admirals 1	1-2-3	def.		Admirals 2	4-5-6
33		Cavaliers	2-3-4	def.		Falcons	1-5-6
34		Zags	1-2-5	def.		Seahawks	3-4-6
35		Admirals 2	1-2-3	def.		Sabres	4-5-6
36		Admirals 1	1-2-3	def.		Herons	4-5-6
37		Cavaliers	1-4-5	def.		Zags	2-3-6
38		Admirals 2	1-2-6	def.		Falcons	3-4-5
39		Herons	1-2-4	def.		Seahawks	3-5-6
40		Admirals 1	1-2-3	def.		Sabres	4-5-6
41		Zags	1-3-5	def.		Admirals 2	2-4-6
42		Herons	2-3-4	def.		Cavaliers	1-5-6
43		Falcons	1-2-6	def.		Sabres	3-4-5
44		Admirals 1	1-2-3	def.		Seahawks	4-5-6
45		Admirals 2	1-2-6	def.		Herons	3-4-5
46		Zags	1-2-3	def.		Sabres	4-5-6
47		Seahawks	1-3-4	def.		Cavaliers	2-5-6
48		Admirals 1	1-2-3	def.		Falcons	4-5-6
49		Sabres	1-2-3	def.		Herons	4-5-6
50		Admirals 2	1-2-3	def.		Seahawks	4-5-6
51		Zags	1-2-3	def.		Falcons	4-5-6
52		Admirals 1	1-2-3	def.		Cavaliers	4-5-6
53		Sabres	1-2-4	def.		Seahawks	3-5-6
54		Herons	1-2-5	def.		Falcons	3-4-6
55		Admirals 2	1-2-3	def.		Cavaliers	4-5-6
56		Zags	2-3-5	def.		Admirals 1	1-4-6
57		Zags	2-3-4	def.		Cavaliers	1-5-6
58		Admirals 1	1-2-5	def.		Herons	3-4-6
59		Zags	1-2-4	def.		Herons	3-5-6
60		Admirals 1	1-2-6	def.		Cavaliers	3-4-5
61		Cavaliers	1-2-3	def.		Herons	4-5-6
62		Admirals 1	1-2-4	def.		Zags	3-5-6

	School	Team	Skippers	Crew
	Severn School	Admirals 1	Alex Baker '26 Annie Sitzmann '26 Harrison Szot '27	Ana Fishback '27 Charlotte Macdonald '26 Annabelle Ulak '26 Hudson Grow '28
	Key School	Zags	Casey Burman '28 Ethan Purdon '29 Trey Waters '29	Gideon Santana '28 Paige Asbill '31 Charlotte Lian '29 Elizabeth Roesch '27
	Archbishop Spalding	Cavaliers	Alex Julian '28 Ann Martino '26 Mary Hayes Cobbum '27	Liam Peterson '29 Vika Ferus '27 Emily Julian '28 Dylan Cinque '27
	Gunston	Herons	Andrew Shingledecker '27 Mercer Rensberger '29 Preston Allen '27	Kate Doffermyre '28 Annabelle Baker '26 Ella Von Voss '28
	Severn School	Admirals 2	Ashton Perkins '28 Colin Schwab '29 Will Tweed '28	Parker Lefever-Farino '28 Ellie Lawrence '29 Isabella Ford '28
	Severna Park	Falcons	Gil Glister '28 Marshall Brockett '29 William Albert '28	Isaiah Beauchamp '29 Alexandria Still '27 Gabrielle Mckenna '28
	Sts. Peter & Paul	Sabres	Gene Williams '29 Hartley Cooper '26 Justin Callahan '29	Abby Tucker '28 Jonas Middleton '29 Ian Cox '29
	South River High School	Seahawks	Fiona O'Rourke '27 Hayden Medick '26 Tomas ... '26	John ... '26 Finn Fraser '28 Matthew Treatman-Clark '27 Rory Campbell '27