Severn School '28
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.58 (fleet 2.64) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.05 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 11–7 (61%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 1 | 10–4 | — |
| Fall 2025 | 1 | 1–3 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (18 matches) the record is 11–7 against 12.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.7). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | MDISA Team Race | skipper | 1.84 | 0.78 | 10–4 | 11.1 | −1.06 | 0.7 | 93% |
| 2025-10-05 | MDISA Team Race Qualifier | skipper | 1.41 | 0.21 | 1–3 | 1.6 | −1.20 | 0.4 | 92% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| MDISA Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 71% | — |
| MDISA 's T1 - AYC's "Polar Bear Plunge" Regatta | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.2 | 3.03 |
| 2026 ISSA Phebe Corckran King Memorial Trophy | Skipper | B | 11 | 4.5 | 2.48 |
| MASSA 2026 Invitational Fleet Regatta | Skipper | B | 12 | 1.8 | 2.98 |
| Fall 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| MDISA Team Race Qualifier | Skipper | TR | 6 | 50% | — |
| MASSA 2025 Fall Invitational | Skipper | A | 8 | 4.0 | 2.33 |
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| T2 Fleet Championship Spring 2025 | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.0 | 1.95 |
| MDISA SSPP T2 Fleet | Skipper | B | 6 | 1.7 | 2.39 |
| MDISA KENT ISLAND T2 | Skipper | B | 3 | 1.0 | — |
| MDISA BCSC April T2 Regatta | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.0 | 1.45 |
| Fall 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| MDISA Kent Island T2 | Skipper | B | 6 | 1.0 | — |
| MDISA JV Championship | Skipper | B | 6 | 1.2 | 4.70 |
| MDISA DC Sail T2 Fleet Race | Skipper | B | 3 | 3.3 | 1.81 |
| MDISA BCSC October Tier 2 Regatta | Skipper | A | 6 | 4.3 | 1.53 |
| MDISA BCSC Tier 2 September Regatta | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.2 | 1.75 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Will Tweed |  Archbishop Spalding |
'28 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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