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MDISA BCSC Tier 2 September Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Gilman School Gilman School Greyhounds 17 30 47
2 Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 24 25 49
3 Towson High School Towson High School Generals 36 23 59
4 Calvert Hall College High School Calvert Hall College High School Cardinals 40 33 73
5 Severn School Severn School Admirals 56 19 75
6 Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 31 45 76
7 Loyola Blakefield Loyola Blakefield Dons 50 28 78
8 Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 44 46 90
9 Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron 33 68 101
10 Washington Liberty High School Washington Liberty High School Washington Liberty 60 46 106
11 Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Vikings 57 58 115
12 The Tome School The Tome School Titans 44 74 118
13 Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 57 62 119
14 Park School Park School Bruins 75 77 152
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Gilman School Gilman School Greyhounds 1 7 3 2 1 3 17 Liam Rivers '25
Victor Sanda '28
Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 2 2 5 3 3 9 24 Nolan Wingate '28
Layken Phang '29
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 5 1 8 5 2 10 31 Gene Williams '29
Kasiah Telligman '29
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron 3 3 10 8 7 2 33 Eve Cintron '26
Matthew Sward '27
Towson High School Towson High School Generals 8 10 7 BKD 4 1 36 Henry Bishop '25
Ouisie Goldrick '26
Calvert Hall College High School Calvert Hall College High School Cardinals DNF 8 1 1 8 7 40 Marcus Kozlowski '26
Will Nelson '26
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 4 4 2 OCS 13 6 44 Adam Kurpiewski '27
Charlotte Ryan '25
The Tome School The Tome School Titans 6 6 4 OCS 9 4 44 John Arty '29
Hunter Miller '26
Loyola Blakefield Loyola Blakefield Dons 12 5 11 4 6 12 50 George Shaeffer '26
Eli Eib '26
Severn School Severn School Admirals 9 11 12 7 BKD 8 56 Hudson Grow '28
Parker Lefever-Farino '28
Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Vikings 10 12 13 6 5 11 57 Luke Johnson '25
Sebastian Yurcisin '25
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 13 9 9 9 12 5 57 Brandon Hall '28 [1-6]
Lucille Leigh '28 [1-2, 5-6]
Carson Zinkgraf '28 [3-4]
Washington Liberty High School Washington Liberty High School Washington Liberty 7 13 6 10 10 14 60 Dean Fetter '28 [1-6]
Karsten Glazier '28 [1-2, 5-6]
Alexandria Hou '28 [3-4]
Park School Park School Bruins 11 DNF 14 11 11 13 75 Ezra Ebert '26
Veronica Schneider '25
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Severn School Severn School Admirals 2 1 1 1 4 10 19 Will Tweed '28
Kai Davids '28
Towson High School Towson High School Generals 6 4 4 4 1 4 23 Carter Robbins '25 [1-2]
Anna Makovich '26 [3-6]
Anna Makovich '26 [1-2]
Valerie Lemko '28 [3-6]
Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 5 7 3 2 3 5 25 Thomas Birchfield '27
Jekari Mason '29
Loyola Blakefield Loyola Blakefield Dons 1 6 2 7 9 3 28 Sebastian Haber '27
Sophia Hammond '26
Gilman School Gilman School Greyhounds 4 3 7 5 5 6 30 Ryan Michael '26 [1-6]
Richard Nesti '26 [1-2, 5-6]
Mason Coates '27 [3-4]
Calvert Hall College High School Calvert Hall College High School Cardinals 8 2 5 3 8 7 33 Soren Lange '28
Liam Lange '28
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 3 5 OCS 6 7 9 45 Justin Callahan '29
Ian Cox '29
Washington Liberty High School Washington Liberty High School Washington Liberty 7 9 OCS 8 6 1 46 Dylan Jacobson '28 [1-6]
Alexandria Hou '28 [1-2]
Sophia Lenzner '27 [3-6]
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers DSQ 8 8 11 2 2 46 Matthew Synoracki '28 [1-6]
Dylan Cinque '27 [1-2, 5-6]
Sloane Fagiolo '27 [3-4]
Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Vikings 9 10 6 9 13 11 58 Amelia Wire '27 [1-4]
Shane Churilla '25 [5-6]
Abigail Dickey '26 [1-4]
Ricardo Shayer '25 [5-6]
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 11 11 12 10 10 8 62 Ryan Stebbins '28 [1-6]
Caleb Carrasco '28 [1-2, 5-6]
Logan Lahtinen '28 [3-4]
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron 10 12 9 12 12 13 68 Ethan Snyder '27
Chloe Cummings '25
The Tome School The Tome School Titans 12 13 10 14 11 14 74 Charles Partridge '28
Gideon Garber '28
Park School Park School Bruins 13 14 11 13 14 12 77 Norah Surcel-Debes '28
Ruby Turner '26
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.140+0.14
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2024 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Archbishop SpaldingArchbishop Spalding Cavaliers113355
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HSBethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron224466
Broadneck High SchoolBroadneck High School Bruins335577
Calvert Hall College High SchoolCalvert Hall College High School Cardinals446699
Gilman SchoolGilman School Greyhounds55771010
Loyola BlakefieldLoyola Blakefield Dons66991111
Park SchoolPark School Bruins7710101212
PatuxentPatuxent Panthers9911111313
Sts. Peter & PaulSts. Peter & Paul Sabres111113131515
Severn SchoolSevern School Admirals101012121414
The Tome SchoolThe Tome School Titans1212141411
Towson High SchoolTowson High School Generals1313151522
Walt Whitman High SchoolWalt Whitman High School Vikings14141133
Washington Liberty High SchoolWashington Liberty High School Washington Liberty15152244

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Archbishop SpaldingArchbishop Spalding Cavaliers224466
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HSBethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron335577
Broadneck High SchoolBroadneck High School Bruins446699
Calvert Hall College High SchoolCalvert Hall College High School Cardinals55771010
Gilman SchoolGilman School Greyhounds66991111
Loyola BlakefieldLoyola Blakefield Dons7710101212
Park SchoolPark School Bruins9911111313
PatuxentPatuxent Panthers101012121414
Sts. Peter & PaulSts. Peter & Paul Sabres1212141411
Severn SchoolSevern School Admirals111113131515
The Tome SchoolThe Tome School Titans1313151522
Towson High SchoolTowson High School Generals14141133
Walt Whitman High SchoolWalt Whitman High School Vikings15152244
Washington Liberty High SchoolWashington Liberty High School Washington Liberty113355
School / Team SkipperCrew
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Adam Kurpiewski '27 Charlotte Ryan '25
Cavaliers Matthew Synoracki '28 [1-6] Dylan Cinque '27 [1-2, 5-6]
Sloane Fagiolo '27 [3-4]
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Eve Cintron '26 Matthew Sward '27
Battlin' Baron Ethan Snyder '27 Chloe Cummings '25
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Brandon Hall '28 [1-6] Lucille Leigh '28 [1-2, 5-6]
Carson Zinkgraf '28 [3-4]
Bruins Ryan Stebbins '28 [1-6] Caleb Carrasco '28 [1-2, 5-6]
Logan Lahtinen '28 [3-4]
Calvert Hall College High School Calvert Hall College High School Marcus Kozlowski '26 Will Nelson '26
Cardinals Soren Lange '28 Liam Lange '28
Gilman School Gilman School Liam Rivers '25 Victor Sanda '28
Greyhounds Ryan Michael '26 [1-6] Richard Nesti '26 [1-2, 5-6]
Mason Coates '27 [3-4]
Loyola Blakefield Loyola Blakefield George Shaeffer '26 Eli Eib '26
Dons Sebastian Haber '27 Sophia Hammond '26
Park School Park School Ezra Ebert '26 Veronica Schneider '25
Bruins Norah Surcel-Debes '28 Ruby Turner '26
Patuxent Patuxent Nolan Wingate '28 Layken Phang '29
Panthers Thomas Birchfield '27 Jekari Mason '29
Severn School Severn School Hudson Grow '28 Parker Lefever-Farino '28
Admirals Will Tweed '28 Kai Davids '28
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Gene Williams '29 Kasiah Telligman '29
Sabres Justin Callahan '29 Ian Cox '29
The Tome School The Tome School John Arty '29 Hunter Miller '26
Titans Charles Partridge '28 Gideon Garber '28
Towson High School Towson High School Henry Bishop '25 Ouisie Goldrick '26
Generals Carter Robbins '25 [1-2]
Anna Makovich '26 [3-6]		 Anna Makovich '26 [1-2]
Valerie Lemko '28 [3-6]
Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Luke Johnson '25 Sebastian Yurcisin '25
Vikings Amelia Wire '27 [1-4]
Shane Churilla '25 [5-6]		 Abigail Dickey '26 [1-4]
Ricardo Shayer '25 [5-6]
Washington Liberty High School Washington Liberty High School Dean Fetter '28 [1-6] Karsten Glazier '28 [1-2, 5-6]
Alexandria Hou '28 [3-4]
Washington Liberty Dylan Jacobson '28 [1-6] Alexandria Hou '28 [1-2]
Sophia Lenzner '27 [3-6]

Conditions — 09/29/2024 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 74%  ·  Pressure 1014.1 hPa

Temperature

71°F
↑ 75°F   ↓ 64°F
Feels like 71°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
9.1 kn
avg  ·  max 10.6 kn
Gusts to 20.8 kn
From NE (48°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover83% Sunshine6.3 hrs Humidity74% Pressure1014.1 hPa Rain0.01 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 11 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Loyola Blakefield/Notre Dame Preparato: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.11)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.12 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.02
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.18 ± 0.14)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.11 means a rating gap counts about 9% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Loyola Blakefield/Notre Dame Preparato by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 1 labelled days at Loyola Blakefield/Notre Dame Preparato, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →