Severn School '28
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 86.44 percentile among ISSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.110 rating points from 73 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →| Season | Team | Rating | Range | League percentile |
Team percentile |
On team | Races | Team page |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | Severn School | 3.85 | 98.95 | 80.77 | 3 of 13 | 34 | Team page | |
| Fall 2025 | Severn School | 3.09 | 97.68 | 72.22 | 3 of 9 | 18 | Team page | |
| Spring 2025 | Severn School | 3.87 | 98.65 | 81.25 | 2 of 8 | 8 | Team page | |
| Fall 2024 | Severn School | 3.36 | 97.76 | 77.27 | 3 of 11 | 13 | Team page |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.12 | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as crew 28–3 (90%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2025 | 2 | — | 11–1 |
| Spring 2025 | 2 | — | 17–2 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (31 matches) the record is 28–3 against 25.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+2.6). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 4 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-18 | MASSA Team Race Championship | crew | 2.16 | 2.39 | 5–1 | 4.9 | +0.24 | 0.0 | 69% |
| 2025-10-05 | MDISA Team Race Qualifier | crew | 2.48 | 5.48 | 6–0 | 4.3 | ≥+3.00 | 3.4 | 5% |
| 2025-04-06 | MDISA Severn Team Race | crew | 2.31 | 4.24 | 8–1 | 7.0 | +1.93 | 1.0 | 32% |
| 2025-03-22 | MDISA SSA Team Race | crew | 1.68 | 1.43 | 9–1 | 9.2 | −0.25 | 0.0 | 80% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| MDISA TAYC Fleet Tier 1 | Crew | A | 5 | 3.0 | +0.02 |
| 2026 ISSA Phebe Corckran King Memorial Trophy | Crew | B | 11 | 4.5 | +0.45 |
| MDISA DC Sail T1 - Spring 2026 | Crew | B | 6 | 1.7 | -0.12 |
| MASSA 2026 Invitational Fleet Regatta | Crew | B | 12 | 1.8 | +0.03 |
| Fall 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| MDISA WRSC FALL 2025 T1 | Crew | A | 6 | 1.3 | +0.01 |
| MDISA Varsity Champs Fall 2025 | Crew | B | 7 | 1.0 | +0.36 |
| MDISA Team Race Qualifier | Crew | TR | 6 | 100% | — |
| MDISA's T1 - AYC's "Fall Home Coming" Fleet Race | Crew | B | 5 | 1.0 | +0.22 |
| MASSA Team Race Championship | Crew | TR | 14 | 86% | — |
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| MDISA Severn Team Race | Crew | TR | 9 | 89% | — |
| MDISA SSA Team Race | Crew | TR | 9 | 100% | — |
| MDISA Fleet Race Qualifier | Crew | B | 1 | 4.0 | — |
| 2025 T1 Fleet Championship | Crew | A, B | 7 | 2.0 | +0.26 |
| Fall 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| MDISA DC Sail T1 Fleet Race | Crew | B | 7 | 1.6 | +0.26 |
| MDISA BCSC Tier 2 September Regatta | Crew | B | 6 | 3.2 | -0.33 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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