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MDISA's T1 - AYC's "Fall Home Coming" Fleet Race

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Severn School Severn School Admirals 5 5 10
2 St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 28 28 56
3 Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 44 15 59
4 Key School Key School Zags 45 28 73
5 Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 42 31 73
6 Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 26 55 81
7 Henderson High School Henderson High School Warriors 35 49 84
8 Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Panthers 41 44 85
9 Severna Park Severna Park Falcons 42 44 86
10 Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 34 58 92
11 Bishop O'Connell High School Bishop O'Connell High School Knights 42 52 94
12 The Potomac School The Potomac School Panthers 68 32 100
13 South River High School South River High School Seahawks 70 MRP 49 MRP 119 MRP
14 Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Vikings 60 61 121
15 Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 61 72 133
16 Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 59 78 137
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Severn School Severn School Admirals 1 1 1 1 1 5 Harrison Szot '27
Hudson Grow '28
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 2 3 6 10 5 26 James Biles V '27 [1-5]
Lucia Zaklin '27 [1-3]
Claire Oehlerking '29 [4-5]
St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 3 2 2 OCS 4 28 Halsey Carter '26 [1-5]
Aurelea Cerny '30 [1-3]
Barrett Mouritzen '28 [4-5]
Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 4 12 3 13 2 34 Thomas Birchfield '27
Max Wingate '30
Henderson High School Henderson High School Warriors 9 9 4 3 10 35 Drew Defonzo '26
Ashton Becker '27
Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Panthers 15 4 DSQ 2 3 41 Rylee Landry '27
Henry Pachler '27
Severna Park Severna Park Falcons 5 14 5 4 14 42 William Albert '28
Gil Glister '28
Bishop O'Connell High School Bishop O'Connell High School Knights 10 8 10 7 7 42 James Reilly '28
Charlotte Burkholder '29
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 13 7 7 9 6 42 Gene Williams '29
Daniel Schwaninger '26
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 7 6 9 6 16 44 Charles Geraghty '26 [1-3]
Ann Martino '26 [4-5]
Kelly Morgenstern '27 [1-3]
Key School Key School Zags 8 10 8 8 11 45 Casey Burman '28 [1-5]
Paige Asbill '31 [1-3]
Elizabeth Roesch '27 [4-5]
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 11 5 13 15 15 59 Charlie Mcgeady '29
Ella Chasse '27
Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Vikings 16 15 12 5 12 60 Amelia Wire '27
Abigail Dickey '26
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 12 13 15 12 9 61 Allie Clark '26
Owen Smith '26
The Potomac School The Potomac School Panthers 14 16 14 11 13 68 Thomas Christiansen '27 [1-3]
Luke Steindler '27 [4-5]
Georgia Neaderland '26 [1-3]
Kara Panjrath '26 [4-5]
South River High School South River High School Seahawks 6 11 11 14 8 70 MRP Hayden Medick '26
Matthew Treatman-Clark '27
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Severn School Severn School Admirals 1 1 1 1 1 5 Alex Baker '26
Kai Davids '28
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 2 2 2 4 5 15 Mary Hayes Cobbum '27
Dylan Cinque '27
St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 3 5 4 9 7 28 James Chapman '27
Delaney Carter '28
Key School Key School Zags 4 6 3 5 10 28 Trey Waters '29 [1-3]
Ethan Purdon '29 [4-5]
Charlotte Lian '29 [1-3]
Gideon Santana '28 [4-5]
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 11 8 6 3 3 31 Justin Callahan '29
Ian Cox '29
The Potomac School The Potomac School Panthers 6 4 5 15 2 32 Cormac Knight '26
Alexandria Hou '29
Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Panthers 5 10 8 8 13 44 Catherine Kammeier '26
Ellie Katz '27
Severna Park Severna Park Falcons 10 9 10 11 4 44 Logan Nield '30
Isabel Albert '29
Henderson High School Henderson High School Warriors 8 7 DSQ 6 11 49 Peter Mazzagatti '26
Jeff Porter '26
South River High School South River High School Seahawks 9 3 7 2 8 49 MRP Fiona O'Rourke '28
Finn Fraser '28
Bishop O'Connell High School Bishop O'Connell High School Knights 7 12 11 13 9 52 Romeo Cayangyang '27
Anna Grace Gutfleish '27
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 13 11 13 12 6 55 Samuel Wells '27
Josephine Iglio '29
Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 12 15 9 10 12 58 Nolan Wingate '28
Joseph Dibonaventuro '26
Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Vikings 15 13 12 7 14 61 James Stahl '27
Kai Combs '27
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 14 14 14 14 16 72 Garrett Szymendera '28
Austin Brelage '30
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 16 16 15 16 15 78 Ryan Stebbins '28
Lucille Leigh '28
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.060+0.06
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2017 (7 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Annapolis High SchoolAnnapolis High School Panthers2424242222
Archbishop SpaldingArchbishop Spalding Cavaliers2323232121
Bishop O'Connell High SchoolBishop O'Connell High School Knights2222222020
Broadneck High SchoolBroadneck High School Bruins2121211919
Great Mills High SchoolGreat Mills High School Hornets2020201818
Kent Island High SchoolKent Island High School Buccaneers1818181616
Key SchoolKey School Zags1717171515
PatuxentPatuxent Panthers1616161414
Henderson High SchoolHenderson High School Warriors1919191717
Sts. Peter & PaulSts. Peter & Paul Sabres11111199
Severn SchoolSevern School Admirals1515151313
Severna ParkSeverna Park Falcons1414141212
South River High SchoolSouth River High School Seahawks1313131111
St. Mary's High School (MD)St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints1212121010
The Potomac SchoolThe Potomac School Panthers1010102424
Walt Whitman High SchoolWalt Whitman High School Vikings9992323

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B
Annapolis High SchoolAnnapolis High School Panthers2323232121
Archbishop SpaldingArchbishop Spalding Cavaliers2222222020
Bishop O'Connell High SchoolBishop O'Connell High School Knights2121211919
Broadneck High SchoolBroadneck High School Bruins2020201818
Great Mills High SchoolGreat Mills High School Hornets1919191717
Kent Island High SchoolKent Island High School Buccaneers1717171515
Key SchoolKey School Zags1616161414
PatuxentPatuxent Panthers1515151313
Henderson High SchoolHenderson High School Warriors1818181616
Sts. Peter & PaulSts. Peter & Paul Sabres1010102424
Severn SchoolSevern School Admirals1414141212
Severna ParkSeverna Park Falcons1313131111
South River High SchoolSouth River High School Seahawks1212121010
St. Mary's High School (MD)St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints11111199
The Potomac SchoolThe Potomac School Panthers9992323
Walt Whitman High SchoolWalt Whitman High School Vikings2424242222
School / Team SkipperCrew
Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Rylee Landry '27 Henry Pachler '27
Panthers Catherine Kammeier '26 Ellie Katz '27
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Charles Geraghty '26 [1-3]
Ann Martino '26 [4-5]		 Kelly Morgenstern '27 [1-3]
Cavaliers Mary Hayes Cobbum '27 Dylan Cinque '27
Bishop O'Connell High School Bishop O'Connell High School James Reilly '28 Charlotte Burkholder '29
Knights Romeo Cayangyang '27 Anna Grace Gutfleish '27
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Charlie Mcgeady '29 Ella Chasse '27
Bruins Ryan Stebbins '28 Lucille Leigh '28
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Allie Clark '26 Owen Smith '26
Hornets Garrett Szymendera '28 Austin Brelage '30
Henderson High School Henderson High School Drew Defonzo '26 Ashton Becker '27
Warriors Peter Mazzagatti '26 Jeff Porter '26
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School James Biles V '27 [1-5] Lucia Zaklin '27 [1-3]
Claire Oehlerking '29 [4-5]
Buccaneers Samuel Wells '27 Josephine Iglio '29
Key School Key School Casey Burman '28 [1-5] Paige Asbill '31 [1-3]
Elizabeth Roesch '27 [4-5]
Zags Trey Waters '29 [1-3]
Ethan Purdon '29 [4-5]		 Charlotte Lian '29 [1-3]
Gideon Santana '28 [4-5]
Patuxent Patuxent Thomas Birchfield '27 Max Wingate '30
Panthers Nolan Wingate '28 Joseph Dibonaventuro '26
Severn School Severn School Harrison Szot '27 Hudson Grow '28
Admirals Alex Baker '26 Kai Davids '28
Severna Park Severna Park William Albert '28 Gil Glister '28
Falcons Logan Nield '30 Isabel Albert '29
South River High School South River High School Hayden Medick '26 Matthew Treatman-Clark '27
Seahawks Fiona O'Rourke '28 Finn Fraser '28
St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Halsey Carter '26 [1-5] Aurelea Cerny '30 [1-3]
Barrett Mouritzen '28 [4-5]
Saints James Chapman '27 Delaney Carter '28
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Gene Williams '29 Daniel Schwaninger '26
Sabres Justin Callahan '29 Ian Cox '29
The Potomac School The Potomac School Thomas Christiansen '27 [1-3]
Luke Steindler '27 [4-5]		 Georgia Neaderland '26 [1-3]
Kara Panjrath '26 [4-5]
Panthers Cormac Knight '26 Alexandria Hou '29
Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Amelia Wire '27 Abigail Dickey '26
Vikings James Stahl '27 Kai Combs '27

Conditions — 09/27/2025 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 82%  ·  Pressure 1014.2 hPa

Temperature

73°F
↑ 75°F   ↓ 69°F
Feels like 77°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.1 kn
avg  ·  max 5.1 kn
Gusts to 10.3 kn
From NE (46°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.7 hrs Humidity82% Pressure1014.2 hPa Rain0.05 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Annapolis Yacht Club: an underdogs’ day (−0.05)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.01 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast −0.04
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.31 ± 0.14)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 5% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Annapolis Yacht Club by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 1 labelled days at Annapolis Yacht Club, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →