Severn School '26
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.54 (fleet 4.12) | 9 of 231 | −0.01 ± 0.16 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 164–26 (86%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 3 | 43–5 | — |
| Fall 2025 | 2 | 14–2 | — |
| Spring 2025 | 4 | 54–8 | — |
| Fall 2024 | 2 | 18–2 | — |
| Spring 2024 | 3 | 27–6 | — |
| Fall 2023 | 2 | 6–2 | — |
| Fall 2022 | 1 | 2–1 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 16 graded regattas (188 matches) the record is 162–26 against 158.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+3.1). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 7 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 12 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | ISSA Team Race Championship for the Baker Trophy | skipper | 2.82 | 4.59 | 15–2 | 11.5 | +1.77 | 3.1 | 4% |
| 2026-04-25 | MASSA 2026 Team Race Championship/Baker Qualifier | skipper | 2.92 | 2.73 | 12–2 | 12.2 | −0.19 | 0.0 | 75% |
| 2026-04-11 | MDISA Team Race | skipper | 2.97 | 2.09 | 16–1 | 16.5 | −0.88 | 0.2 | 90% |
| 2025-10-18 | MASSA Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.88 | 2.58 | 9–1 | 9.2 | −0.30 | 0.0 | 81% |
| 2025-10-05 | MDISA Team Race Qualifier | skipper | 2.96 | 0.99 | 5–1 | 5.7 | −1.96 | 0.9 | 98% |
| 2025-05-16 | ISSA Baker Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.99 | 2.03 | 10–7 | 12.5 | −0.97 | 1.4 | 96% |
| 2025-04-26 | MASSA Baker Qualifier | skipper | 3.03 | 4.58 | 20–1 | 18.4 | +1.55 | 1.2 | 21% |
| 2025-04-12 | MDISA Baker Pre-Qualifier | skipper | 2.99 | 5.99 | 15–0 | 14.7 | ≥+3.00 | 0.4 | 71% |
| 2025-04-06 | MDISA Severn Team Race | skipper | 2.96 | 5.96 | 9–0 | 8.8 | ≥+3.00 | 0.3 | 80% |
| 2024-10-12 | MASSA Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.90 | 3.05 | 10–2 | 9.8 | +0.15 | 0.0 | 63% |
| 2024-09-28 | MDISA Team Race Qualifier | skipper | 2.77 | 5.77 | 8–0 | 7.8 | ≥+3.00 | 0.3 | 82% |
| 2024-05-17 | 2024 ISSA Baker Team Race National Championship | skipper | 2.89 | 2.80 | 9–5 | 9.2 | −0.08 | 0.0 | 67% |
| 2024-04-27 | MASSA Team Championship and Baker Qualifier | skipper | 2.86 | 4.70 | 11–1 | 9.0 | +1.84 | 1.8 | 14% |
| 2024-04-13 | MDISA Team Race Qualifier | skipper | 2.66 | 5.66 | 7–0 | 6.4 | ≥+3.00 | 0.9 | 51% |
| 2023-10-14 | MASSA Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.73 | 2.19 | 4–2 | 4.5 | −0.54 | 0.1 | 83% |
| 2022-10-08 | 2022 MDISA TR Qualifier | skipper | 2.26 | -0.31 | 2–1 | 2.8 | −2.57 | 1.2 | 99% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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