| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Severn School | Admirals | 5–0 |
| 2 |  |
Key School | Zags | 4–1 |
| 3 |  |
Leonardtown High School | Raiders | 3–2 |
| 4 |  |
Severna Park | Falcons | 2–3 |
| 5 |  |
Sts. Peter & Paul | Sabres | 1–4 |
| 6 |  |
Annapolis High School | Panthers | 0–5 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 11,619 team race matches sailed before 2024-09-28, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 18 of 21 matches (86%) with a log-loss of 0.260 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.28 ± 0.52: a typical event, more orderly than 61% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Severn School | 8.42 | 11.42 | 8–0 | 7.8 | ≥+3.00 | 0.3 | 82% |
| 3 | Leonardtown High School | 2.60 | 3.43 | 3–5 | 2.2 | +0.82 | 0.4 | 38% |
| 2 | Key School | 4.58 | 4.97 | 5–3 | 4.7 | +0.39 | 0.1 | 59% |
| 4 | Severna Park | 3.94 | 4.03 | 4–4 | 3.9 | +0.10 | 0.0 | 65% |
| 5 | Sts. Peter & Paul | 2.96 | 0.90 | 1–4 | 2.0 | −2.06 | 1.1 | 98% |
| 6 | Annapolis High School | 0.18 | -2.82 | 0–5 | 0.3 | ≤−3.00 | 0.5 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annie Sitzmann | Severn School | 3.05 | 6.05 | 8–0 | 7.8 | ≥+3.00 | 0.3 | 82% |
| Alex Baker | Severn School | 2.77 | 5.77 | 8–0 | 7.8 | ≥+3.00 | 0.3 | 82% |
| Harrison Szot | Severn School | 2.52 | 5.52 | 8–0 | 7.8 | ≥+3.00 | 0.3 | 82% |
| Will Clay | Leonardtown High School | 1.60 | 2.43 | 3–5 | 2.2 | +0.82 | 0.4 | 38% |
| Everett Moulds | Leonardtown High School | 0.60 | 1.42 | 3–5 | 2.2 | +0.82 | 0.4 | 38% |
| Jared Werner | Leonardtown High School | 0.23 | 1.05 | 3–5 | 2.2 | +0.82 | 0.4 | 38% |
| Casey Burman | Key School | 1.02 | 1.41 | 5–3 | 4.7 | +0.39 | 0.1 | 59% |
| Hartley Cooper | Sts. Peter & Paul | 1.01 | -1.05 | 1–4 | 2.0 | −2.06 | 1.1 | 98% |
| Louisa Kalinski | Sts. Peter & Paul | 0.73 | -1.33 | 1–4 | 2.0 | −2.06 | 1.1 | 98% |
| Rylee Landry | Annapolis High School | 0.47 | -2.53 | 0–5 | 0.3 | ≤−3.00 | 0.5 | >99% |
| Ellie Katz | Annapolis High School | -0.23 | -3.23 | 0–5 | 0.3 | ≤−3.00 | 0.5 | >99% |
| Henry Meyer | Annapolis High School | -0.18 | -3.18 | 0–3 | 0.2 | ≤−3.00 | 0.3 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Leonardtown High School | Sts. Peter & Paul | 43% | upset |
| 1 | 2 | Severn School | Annapolis High School | 100% | |
| 1 | 3 | Key School | Severna Park | 60% | |
| 1 | 4 | Severn School | Leonardtown High School | 99% | |
| 1 | 5 | Severna Park | Sts. Peter & Paul | 69% | |
| 1 | 6 | Key School | Annapolis High School | 96% | |
| 1 | 7 | Severn School | Severna Park | 97% | |
| 1 | 8 | Leonardtown High School | Annapolis High School | 87% | |
| 1 | 9 | Key School | Sts. Peter & Paul | 77% | |
| 1 | 10 | Severna Park | Annapolis High School | 93% | |
| 1 | 11 | Severn School | Sts. Peter & Paul | 98% | |
| 1 | 12 | Key School | Leonardtown High School | 82% | |
| 1 | 13 | Sts. Peter & Paul | Annapolis High School | 90% | |
| 1 | 14 | Leonardtown High School | Severna Park | 28% | upset |
| 1 | 15 | Severn School | Key School | 95% | |
| 2 | 16 | Severn School | Severna Park | 97% | |
| 2 | 17 | Key School | Leonardtown High School | 82% | |
| 2 | 18 | Severn School | Leonardtown High School | 99% | |
| 2 | 19 | Severna Park | Key School | 39% | upset |
| 2 | 20 | Severn School | Key School | 95% | |
| 2 | 21 | Severna Park | Leonardtown High School | 72% |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Raiders | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Sabres | 1-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Admirals | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Panthers | 3-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Zags | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Raiders | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Falcons | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Sabres | 3-4-5 |
| 6 | |
Zags | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Panthers | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Falcons | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Raiders | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Panthers | 3-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Zags | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Sabres | 3-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Falcons | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Panthers | 1-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Sabres | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Zags | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 1-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Sabres | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Panthers | 3-4-6 |
| 14 | |
Raiders | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Falcons | 1-4-6 |
| 15 | |
Admirals | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Zags | 3-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Falcons | 4-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Zags | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-6 |
| 18 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Raiders | 4-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Falcons | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Zags | 3-4-6 |
| 20 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Zags | 4-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Falcons | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-5 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Severn School | Admirals | Alex Baker '26 Annie Sitzmann '26 Harrison Szot '27 |
Charlotte Macdonald '26 Annabelle Ulak '26 Ana Fishback '27 |
|
Key School | Zags | Casey Burman '28 Mason Cook '25 Trey Burman '25 |
Gideon Santana '28 Paige Asbill '31 Ben Coster '31 |
|
Leonardtown High School | Raiders | Everett Moulds '26 Jared Werner '25 Will Clay '25 |
Sam Glauner '27 C. Aubrey Reese '26 Mia Cassetta '25 |
|
Severna Park | Falcons | Gavin Morris '25 Peter Judge '25 Robert Heath '25 |
Connor Smith '25 William Albert '28 Alexandria Still '27 Logan Nield '30 |
|
Sts. Peter & Paul | Sabres | Hartley Cooper '26 Louisa Kalinski '25 Victor Kleppinger '25 |
Riley Schnable '25 Daniel Schwaninger '26 Gabby Beckett '28 |
|
Annapolis High School | Panthers | Ellie Katz '27 Henry Meyer '25 Henry Pachler '27 Rylee Landry '27 |
Gemma Love '25 Henry Pachler '27 Blake Gezelle '27 Catherine Kammeier '26 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
