MASSA Baker Qualifier

HostWest River Sailing Club
Date04/26/2025
TypeDistrict Championship
BoatC420/CFJ/Z420
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Severn School	Admirals	20–1
2	Christchurch School	Seahorses	17–4
3	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts	13–8
4	Severna Park	Falcons	11–10
5	The Stony Brook School	Bears	10–8
6	Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs	9–9
7	Key School	Zags	7–11
8	Rye High School	Garnets	6–12
9	South River High School	Seahawks	2–16
10	Archbishop Spalding	Cavaliers	1–17

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 12,148 team race matches sailed before 2025-04-26, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 79 of 96 matches (82%) with a log-loss of 0.391 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness −0.29 ± 0.23: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 22% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Severn School Admirals	1	9.33	Annie Sitzmann / Annabelle Ulak 3.21 Alex Baker / Charlotte Macdonald 3.03 Harrison Szot / Ana Fishback 3.05	88%	20–1 (95%)	+1.6
2	Christchurch School Seahorses	2	9.01 school +0.28	Elliott Lipp / Suzie Nguyen 2.55 Wylder Smith / Malia Deane 3.05 Bo Angus / Bennett Moss 3.08 15–4 Bo Angus / Brooke Mertz 3.15 2–0	85%	17–4 (81%)	−0.8
3	Christian Brothers Academy Colts	3	7.78 school +0.28	Chris Small / Matthew Dupree 2.76 Jules Buczkowski / Seth Santos 2.24 Cole Buczkowski / Christian Diaz 2.27	70%	13–8 (62%)	−1.7
4	Severna Park Falcons	5	5.55 school −0.21	Gavin Morris / Alexandria Still 1.84 9–10 Jake Beaver / Madison Cannon 1.87 9–10 Peter Judge / Connor Smith 2.10 11–4 Peter Judge / William Albert 2.01 0–6 Robert Heath / Madison Cannon 1.35 2–0 Gavin Morris / Logan Nield 1.79 2–0	40%	11–10 (52%)	+2.5
5	The Stony Brook School Bears	8	5.07 school −0.30	Arancha Rivero-Ansed / Gisele Brandao 1.90 4–6 Carlos Gonzalez / Jp Panebianco 1.77 4–6 Emily Gaillard / Joshua Henson 1.65 4–6 Arancha Rivero-Ansed / Nora Beaver 1.78 6–2 Carlos Gonzalez / Joshua Henson 1.83 6–2 Emily Gaillard / Jp Panebianco 1.61 6–2	39%	10–8 (56%)	+3.0
6	Norfolk Academy Bulldogs	4	6.54 school +0.09	James Allgeier / Sabrina Casagrande 3.21 Jack Poynter / Owen Peluso 1.62 7–9 Eliana Mopper / Anna Iacobucci 1.74 6–8 Grant Fernandez / Anna Iacobucci 1.11 3–1 Eliana Mopper / Owen Peluso 1.54 2–0	60%	9–9 (50%)	−1.8
7	Key School Zags	7	5.19	Mason Cook / Paige Asbill 2.71 Casey Burman / Elizabeth Roesch 1.44 7–9 Trey Burman / Ben Coster 1.04 7–9 Casey Burman / Ben Coster 1.42 0–2 Trey Burman / Gideon Santana 1.03 0–2	40%	7–11 (39%)	−0.2
8	Rye High School Garnets	6	5.16 school +0.34	Melanie Lahrkamp / Haley Kloepfer 2.03 2–8 Kai Mcculloch / Maddie Waddington 1.18 2–8 Hugo Sacristan / Mark Lieshaj 1.43 2–8 Kai Mcculloch / Mark Lieshaj 1.41 4–2 Melanie Lahrkamp / Jenna Kloepfer 1.91 2–2 Hugo Sacristan / Haley Kloepfer 1.50 2–2 Melanie Lahrkamp / Annabella Milano 2.00 2–2 Hugo Sacristan / Jenna Kloepfer 1.38 2–2 Kai Mcculloch / Annabella Milano 1.41 0–2	40%	6–12 (33%)	−1.3
9	South River High School Seahawks	10	1.94 school +0.10	Clara Neeland / Nathan Willoughby 0.56 Fiona O'Rourke / Cameron Love 0.55 Matthew Treatman-Clark / Tomas ... 0.40	7%	2–16 (11%)	+0.7
10	Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers	9	3.24	Adam Kurpiewski / Dylan Cinque 0–10 Ann Martino / Christina Pierce 1.26 0–10 Charles Geraghty / Sarina Muto 1.18 0–10 Adam Kurpiewski / Sarina Muto 1–7 Ann Martino / Dylan Cinque 1.03 1–7 Charles Geraghty / Christina Pierce 1.55 1–7	17%	1–17 (6%)	−2.1

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Severn School	9.33	10.88	20–1	18.4	+1.55	1.2	21%
5	The Stony Brook School	5.07	6.50	10–8	7.0	+1.43	2.5	6%
4	Severna Park	5.55	6.62	11–10	8.5	+1.07	1.5	12%
9	South River High School	1.94	2.67	2–16	1.3	+0.73	0.3	37%
7	Key School	5.19	5.08	7–11	7.2	−0.11	0.0	67%
2	Christchurch School	9.01	8.54	17–4	17.8	−0.47	0.2	82%
8	Rye High School	5.16	4.53	6–12	7.3	−0.63	0.4	86%
3	Christian Brothers Academy	7.78	7.00	13–8	14.7	−0.78	0.8	91%
6	Norfolk Academy	6.54	5.64	9–9	10.8	−0.90	1.0	93%
10	Archbishop Spalding	3.24	1.05	1–17	3.1	−2.18	2.2	99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Grant Fernandez	Norfolk Academy	1.11	4.08	3–1	2.1	+2.97	1.7	16%
Annie Sitzmann	Severn School	3.21	4.76	20–1	18.4	+1.55	1.2	21%
Alex Baker	Severn School	3.03	4.58	20–1	18.4	+1.55	1.2	21%
Harrison Szot	Severn School	3.05	4.59	20–1	18.4	+1.55	1.2	21%
Arancha Rivero-Ansed	The Stony Brook School	1.90	3.33	10–8	7.0	+1.43	2.5	6%
Carlos Gonzalez	The Stony Brook School	1.77	3.21	10–8	7.0	+1.43	2.5	6%
Jake Beaver	Severna Park	1.87	2.92	9–10	6.6	+1.04	1.4	13%
Clara Neeland	South River High School	0.56	1.29	2–16	1.3	+0.73	0.3	37%
Matthew Treatman-Clark	South River High School	0.40	1.13	2–16	1.3	+0.73	0.3	37%
Casey Burman	Key School	1.44	1.34	7–11	7.2	−0.11	0.0	67%
Wylder Smith	Christchurch School	3.05	2.58	17–4	17.8	−0.47	0.2	82%
Melanie Lahrkamp	Rye High School	2.03	1.40	6–12	7.3	−0.63	0.4	86%
Kai Mcculloch	Rye High School	1.18	0.54	6–12	7.3	−0.63	0.4	86%
Hugo Sacristan	Rye High School	1.43	0.80	6–12	7.3	−0.63	0.4	86%
Cole Buczkowski	Christian Brothers Academy	2.27	1.49	13–8	14.7	−0.78	0.8	91%
Adam Kurpiewski	Archbishop Spalding	0.54	-1.65	1–17	3.1	−2.18	2.2	99%
Ann Martino	Archbishop Spalding	1.26	-0.92	1–17	3.1	−2.18	2.2	99%
Charles Geraghty	Archbishop Spalding	1.18	-1.00	1–17	3.1	−2.18	2.2	99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Severn School	Archbishop Spalding	99%
1	2	Christchurch School	Severna Park	94%
1	3	Norfolk Academy	Rye High School	79%
1	4	The Stony Brook School	South River High School	93%
1	5	Severn School	Christian Brothers Academy	80%
1	6	Christchurch School	Key School	95%
1	7	Rye High School	Archbishop Spalding	82%
1	8	Severna Park	South River High School	93%
1	9	Christian Brothers Academy	Norfolk Academy	67%
1	10	The Stony Brook School	Key School	47%	upset
1	11	Severn School	Rye High School	96%
1	12	Christchurch School	South River High School	100%
1	13	Christian Brothers Academy	Archbishop Spalding	97%
1	14	Key School	Severna Park	42%	upset
1	15	Severn School	Norfolk Academy	89%
1	16	Christchurch School	The Stony Brook School	96%
1	17	Christian Brothers Academy	Rye High School	88%
1	18	South River High School	Key School	7%	upset
1	19	Norfolk Academy	Archbishop Spalding	94%
1	20	Severna Park	The Stony Brook School	60%
1	21	Christchurch School	Severn School	44%	upset
1	22	Christian Brothers Academy	South River High School	99%
1	23	Rye High School	Key School	51%
1	24	Norfolk Academy	The Stony Brook School	78%
1	25	Severna Park	Archbishop Spalding	87%
1	26	Severn School	South River High School	100%
1	27	Christian Brothers Academy	Christchurch School	27%	upset
1	28	Key School	Norfolk Academy	24%	upset
1	29	The Stony Brook School	Rye High School	47%	upset
1	30	South River High School	Archbishop Spalding	27%	upset
1	31	Severn School	Severna Park	95%
1	32	Christian Brothers Academy	Key School	88%
1	33	Christchurch School	Rye High School	95%
1	34	The Stony Brook School	Archbishop Spalding	80%
1	35	Severna Park	Norfolk Academy	30%	upset
1	36	Severn School	Key School	96%
1	37	Rye High School	South River High School	92%
1	38	The Stony Brook School	Christian Brothers Academy	11%	upset
1	39	Norfolk Academy	Christchurch School	9%	upset
1	40	Key School	Archbishop Spalding	82%
1	41	Severna Park	Rye High School	58%
1	42	Severn School	The Stony Brook School	97%
1	43	Norfolk Academy	South River High School	96%
1	44	Christchurch School	Archbishop Spalding	99%
1	45	Christian Brothers Academy	Severna Park	84%
2	46	Severn School	Archbishop Spalding	99%
2	47	Christchurch School	Severna Park	94%
2	48	Norfolk Academy	Rye High School	77%
2	49	The Stony Brook School	South River High School	92%
2	50	Severn School	Christian Brothers Academy	77%
2	51	Christchurch School	Key School	95%
2	52	Rye High School	Archbishop Spalding	81%
2	53	Severna Park	South River High School	92%
2	54	Christian Brothers Academy	Norfolk Academy	70%
2	55	Key School	The Stony Brook School	52%
2	56	Severn School	Rye High School	96%
2	57	Christchurch School	South River High School	100%
2	58	Christian Brothers Academy	Archbishop Spalding	97%
2	59	Severna Park	Key School	58%
2	60	Severn School	Norfolk Academy	89%
2	61	Christchurch School	The Stony Brook School	95%
2	62	Christian Brothers Academy	Rye High School	88%
2	63	Key School	South River High School	92%
2	64	Norfolk Academy	Archbishop Spalding	93%
2	65	The Stony Brook School	Severna Park	40%	upset
2	66	Severn School	Christchurch School	56%
2	67	Christian Brothers Academy	South River High School	99%
2	68	Rye High School	Key School	52%
2	69	Norfolk Academy	The Stony Brook School	77%
2	70	Severna Park	Archbishop Spalding	86%
2	71	Severn School	South River High School	100%
2	72	Christchurch School	Christian Brothers Academy	71%
2	73	Key School	Norfolk Academy	24%	upset
2	74	The Stony Brook School	Rye High School	47%	upset
2	75	Archbishop Spalding	South River High School	73%
2	76	Severn School	Severna Park	95%
2	77	Christian Brothers Academy	Key School	89%
2	78	Christchurch School	Rye High School	95%
2	79	The Stony Brook School	Archbishop Spalding	80%
2	80	Severna Park	Norfolk Academy	30%	upset
2	81	Severn School	Key School	96%
2	82	Rye High School	South River High School	92%
2	83	The Stony Brook School	Christian Brothers Academy	10%	upset
2	84	Christchurch School	Norfolk Academy	91%
2	85	Key School	Archbishop Spalding	81%
2	86	Severna Park	Rye High School	57%
2	87	Severn School	The Stony Brook School	96%
2	88	Norfolk Academy	South River High School	95%
2	89	Christchurch School	Archbishop Spalding	99%
2	90	Severna Park	Christian Brothers Academy	15%	upset
4	91	Christchurch School	Christian Brothers Academy	71%
4	92	Severn School	Severna Park	95%
4	93	Christchurch School	Severna Park	94%
4	94	Severn School	Christian Brothers Academy	76%
4	95	Christian Brothers Academy	Severna Park	85%
4	96	Severn School	Christchurch School	56%

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Admirals	1-2-3	def.	Cavaliers	4-5-6
2	Seahorses	1-2-6	def.	Falcons	3-4-5
3	Bulldogs	1-4-5	def.	Garnets	2-3-6
4	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
5	Admirals	1-2-5	def.	Colts	3-4-6
6	Seahorses	1-2-3	def.	Zags	4-5-6
7	Garnets	1-2-3	def.	Cavaliers	4-5-6
8	Falcons	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
9	Colts	1-3-6	def.	Bulldogs	2-4-5
10	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Zags	1-5-6
11	Admirals	1-2-6	def.	Garnets	3-4-5
12	Seahorses	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
13	Colts	1-2-3	def.	Cavaliers	4-5-6
14	Zags	1-3-6	def.	Falcons	2-4-5
15	Admirals	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs	4-5-6
16	Seahorses	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
17	Colts	1-2-6	def.	Garnets	3-4-5
18	Seahawks	1-4-5	def.	Zags	2-3-6
19	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Cavaliers	3-5-6
20	Falcons	1-4-5	def.	Bears	2-3-6
21	Seahorses	1-3-5	def.	Admirals	2-4-6
22	Colts	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
23	Garnets	1-2-5	def.	Zags	3-4-6
24	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
25	Falcons	1-2-4	def.	Cavaliers	3-5-6
26	Admirals	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
27	Colts	1-3-5	def.	Seahorses	2-4-6
28	Zags	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
29	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Garnets	3-5-6
30	Seahawks	1-3-4	def.	Cavaliers	2-5-6
31	Admirals	1-2-4	def.	Falcons	3-5-6
32	Colts	1-3-5	def.	Zags	2-4-6
33	Seahorses	1-2-4	def.	Garnets	3-5-6
34	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Cavaliers	3-4-6
35	Falcons	1-3-5	def.	Bulldogs	2-4-6
36	Admirals	1-2-4	def.	Zags	3-5-6
37	Garnets	2-3-4	def.	Seahawks	1-5-6
38	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Colts	3-5-6
39	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Seahorses	3-4-5
40	Zags	1-2-4	def.	Cavaliers	3-5-6
41	Falcons	1-2-5	def.	Garnets	3-4-6
42	Admirals	1-4-5	def.	Bears	2-3-6
43	Bulldogs	1-3-6	def.	Seahawks	2-4-5
44	Seahorses	1-2-3	def.	Cavaliers	4-5-6
45	Colts	1-4-5	def.	Falcons	2-3-6
46	Admirals	1-2-3	def.	Cavaliers	4-5-6
47	Seahorses	1-2-5	def.	Falcons	3-4-6
48	Bulldogs	1-4-5	def.	Garnets	2-3-6
49	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
50	Admirals	1-2-3	def.	Colts	4-5-6
51	Seahorses	1-2-4	def.	Zags	3-5-6
52	Garnets	1-2-3	def.	Cavaliers	4-5-6
53	Falcons	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
54	Colts	2-3-4	def.	Bulldogs	1-5-6
55	Zags	1-3-6	def.	Bears	2-4-5
56	Admirals	1-3-5	def.	Garnets	2-4-6
57	Seahorses	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
58	Colts	1-2-3	def.	Cavaliers	4-5-6 OCS
59	Falcons	2-3-4	def.	Zags	1-5-6
60	Admirals	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
61	Seahorses	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
62	Colts	1-2-5	def.	Garnets	3-4-6
63	Zags	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
64	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Cavaliers	3-5-6
65	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Falcons	3-4-5
66	Admirals	1-2-6	def.	Seahorses	3-4-5
67	Colts	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
68	Garnets	1-2-5	def.	Zags	3-4-6
69	Bulldogs	1-4-5	def.	Bears	2-3-6
70	Falcons	1-2-3	def.	Cavaliers	4-5-6
71	Admirals	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
72	Seahorses	2-3-4	def.	Colts	1-5-6
73	Zags	2-3-4	def.	Bulldogs	1-5-6
74	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Garnets	1-5-6
75	Cavaliers	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
76	Admirals	1-2-5	def.	Falcons	3-4-6
77	Colts	1-2-5	def.	Zags	3-4-6
78	Seahorses	2-3-5	def.	Garnets	1-4-6
79	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Cavaliers	3-5-6
80	Falcons	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
81	Admirals	1-2-3	def.	Zags	4-5-6
82	Garnets	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
83	Bears	1-3-6	def.	Colts	2-4-5
84	Seahorses	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs	4-5-6
85	Zags	2-3-4	def.	Cavaliers	1-5-6
86	Falcons	1-2-3	def.	Garnets	4-5-6
87	Admirals	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
88	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
89	Seahorses	1-2-5	def.	Cavaliers	3-4-6
90	Falcons	1-3-6	def.	Colts	2-4-5
91	Seahorses	1-2-4	def.	Colts	3-5-6
92	Admirals	1-2-3	def.	Falcons	4-5-6
93	Seahorses	1-2-4	def.	Falcons	3-5-6
94	Admirals	1-2-5	def.	Colts	3-4-6
95	Colts	1-2-4	def.	Falcons	3-5-6
96	Admirals	2-4-5	def.	Seahorses	1-3-6 OCS

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Severn School	Admirals	Alex Baker '26 Annie Sitzmann '26 Harrison Szot '27	Charlotte Macdonald '26 Annabelle Ulak '26 Ana Fishback '27
Christchurch School	Seahorses	Bo Angus '25 Elliott Lipp '26 Wylder Smith '27	Bennett Moss '26 Brooke Mertz '26 Suzie Nguyen '25 Malia Deane '25
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts	Christopher Small '26 Cole Buczkowski '27 Jules Buczkowski '26	Matthew Dupree '25 Christian Diaz '28 Seth Santos '27
Severna Park	Falcons	Gavin Morris '25 Jake Beaver '27 Peter Judge '25 Robert Heath '25	Alexandria Still '27 Logan Nield '30 Madison Cannon '25 William Albert '28 Connor Smith '25
The Stony Brook School	Bears	Arancha Rivero-Ansed '27 Carlos Gonzalez '28 Emily Gaillard '25	Nora Beaver '27 Gisele Brandao '27 Joshua Henson '25 Jp Panebianco '27
Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs	Eliana Mopper '26 Grant Fernandez '27 Jack Poynter '25 James Allgeier '27	Anna Iacobucci '25 Owen Peluso '26 Sabrina Casagrande '25
Key School	Zags	Casey Burman '28 Mason Cook '25 Trey Burman '25	Elizabeth Roesch '27 Ben Coster '31 Paige Asbill '31 Gideon Santana '28
Rye High School	Garnets	Hugo Sacristan '26 Kai Mcculloch '27 Melanie Lahrkamp '27	Mark Lieshaj '26 Jenna Kloepfer '28 Haley Kloepfer '25 Maddie Waddington '28 Annabella Milano '25
South River High School	Seahawks	Clara Neeland '26 Fiona O'Rourke '28 Matthew Treatman-Clark '27	Nathan Willoughby '25 Cameron Love '27 Tomas ... '26
Archbishop Spalding	Cavaliers	Adam Kurpiewski '27 Ann Martino '26 Charles Geraghty '26	Dylan Cinque '27 Sarina Muto '27 Christina Pierce '25

Conditions — 04/26/2025 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle

Humidity 74% · Pressure 1011.0 hPa

Temperature

72°F

↑ 79°F ↓ 67°F

Feels like 72°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

10.9 kn

avg · max 14.6 kn

Gusts to 28.2 kn

From WSW (244°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover84% Sunshine4.3 hrs Humidity74% Pressure1011.0 hPa Rain0.26 in

What this breeze does at West River Sailing Club — from fleet racing

Breeze: SW about 13 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at West River Sailing Club in this breeze: a typical day (+0.01)

Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at West River Sailing Club by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 1 labelled days at West River Sailing Club, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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