The Stony Brook School '27
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.00 (fleet 3.18) | 39 of 231 | +0.03 ± 0.15 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 69–47 (59%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 3 | 27–12 | — |
| Fall 2025 | 2 | 7–9 | — |
| Spring 2025 | 3 | 26–16 | — |
| Fall 2024 | 2 | 9–10 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 9 graded regattas (114 matches) the record is 67–47 against 62.2 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+4.8). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 5 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | National Invitational Tournament (Founders Trophy) | skipper | 2.27 | 3.11 | 13–3 | 11.5 | +0.84 | 0.7 | 27% |
| 2026-04-25 | MASSA 2026 Team Race Championship/Baker Qualifier | skipper | 2.29 | 2.22 | 7–7 | 7.1 | −0.06 | 0.0 | 66% |
| 2026-04-12 | NYISA-SE Team Race Qualifier | skipper | 2.33 | 1.83 | 7–2 | 7.5 | −0.51 | 0.2 | 83% |
| 2025-10-18 | MASSA Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.24 | 1.44 | 5–9 | 6.2 | −0.79 | 0.5 | 89% |
| 2025-05-17 | National Invitational Tournament | skipper | 2.08 | 2.79 | 12–6 | 9.7 | +0.71 | 0.9 | 19% |
| 2025-04-26 | MASSA Baker Qualifier | skipper | 1.90 | 3.33 | 10–8 | 7.0 | +1.43 | 2.5 | 6% |
| 2025-04-12 | NYISA-SE Team Race League Qualifiers | skipper | 1.75 | 1.45 | 4–2 | 4.3 | −0.30 | 0.0 | 78% |
| 2024-10-12 | MASSA Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.94 | 2.12 | 5–9 | 4.7 | +0.18 | 0.0 | 54% |
| 2024-09-28 | NYISA-SE Fall Team Race Championship 2024 | skipper | 1.89 | 1.49 | 4–1 | 4.2 | −0.41 | 0.1 | 83% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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