| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Mamaroneck High School | Tigers | 5–0 |
| 2 |  |
The Stony Brook School | Bears | 4–1 |
| 3 |  |
Rye High School | Garnets | 3–2 |
| 4 |  |
Rye Country Day School | Wildcats | 2–3 |
| 5 |  |
St. John the Baptist | Cougars | 1–4 |
| 6 |  |
Bay Shore High School | Marauders | 0–5 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 11,619 team race matches sailed before 2024-09-28, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 14 of 15 matches (93%) with a log-loss of 0.350 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.69 ± 0.59: an orderly event, more orderly than 92% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mamaroneck High School | 3.47 | 6.47 | 5–0 | 3.4 | ≥+3.00 | 2.8 | 10% |
| 3 | Rye High School | 2.47 | 3.23 | 3–2 | 2.4 | +0.77 | 0.3 | 46% |
| 2 | The Stony Brook School | 4.55 | 4.15 | 4–1 | 4.2 | −0.41 | 0.1 | 83% |
| 4 | Rye Country Day School | 2.53 | 1.96 | 2–3 | 2.4 | −0.58 | 0.1 | 83% |
| 5 | St. John the Baptist | 1.58 | 0.64 | 1–4 | 1.6 | −0.94 | 0.3 | 88% |
| 6 | Bay Shore High School | 0.85 | -2.15 | 0–5 | 1.0 | ≤−3.00 | 1.5 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Colgan | Mamaroneck High School | 0.62 | 3.62 | 4–0 | 2.5 | ≥+3.00 | 2.7 | 12% |
| Kai Mcculloch | Rye High School | 1.36 | 2.12 | 3–2 | 2.4 | +0.77 | 0.3 | 46% |
| Hugo Sacristan | Rye High School | 1.01 | 1.77 | 3–2 | 2.4 | +0.77 | 0.3 | 46% |
| Alice Waddington | Rye High School | -0.14 | 0.63 | 3–2 | 2.4 | +0.77 | 0.3 | 46% |
| Carlos Gonzalez | The Stony Brook School | 1.15 | 0.74 | 4–1 | 4.2 | −0.41 | 0.1 | 83% |
| Arancha Rivero-Ansed | The Stony Brook School | 1.89 | 1.49 | 4–1 | 4.2 | −0.41 | 0.1 | 83% |
| Zack Wirth | Rye Country Day School | 0.80 | 0.23 | 2–3 | 2.4 | −0.58 | 0.1 | 83% |
| Alice Rikkers | Rye Country Day School | 0.70 | 0.13 | 2–3 | 2.4 | −0.58 | 0.1 | 83% |
| Catherine Desmond | St. John the Baptist | 0.71 | -0.23 | 1–4 | 1.6 | −0.94 | 0.3 | 88% |
| Kathryn Elliott | St. John the Baptist | 0.18 | -0.76 | 1–4 | 1.6 | −0.94 | 0.3 | 88% |
| Abigail Regan | Bay Shore High School | -0.26 | -3.26 | 0–5 | 1.0 | ≤−3.00 | 1.5 | >99% |
| Luca Defranco | Bay Shore High School | 0.51 | -2.49 | 0–5 | 1.0 | ≤−3.00 | 1.5 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Garnets | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Wildcats | 3-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Tigers | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 2-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Marauders | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Tigers | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Wildcats | 2-4-5 |
| 5 | |
Bears | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Garnets | 3-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Cougars | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Marauders | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Tigers | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Bears | 2-3-6 |
| 8 | |
Wildcats | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Cougars | 2-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Garnets | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Marauders | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Tigers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Garnets | 3-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Wildcats | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Marauders | 3-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Garnets | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-5 |
| 14 | |
Bears | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Wildcats | 2-4-5 |
| 15 | |
Tigers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Marauders | 4-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Mamaroneck High School | Tigers | Anndaly Mcmanus '25 Jonathan Wittick '25 Mason Colgan '27 Michelle Kaneti '25 |
Logan Solsby '26 Olivia Gray '27 Max Lazarus '25 |
|
The Stony Brook School | Bears | Arancha Rivero-Ansed '27 Carlos Gonzalez '28 Emily Gaillard '25 |
Joshua Henson '25 Jp Panebianco '27 Mia Jones '26 |
|
Rye High School | Garnets | Alice Waddington '25 Hugo Sacristan '26 Kai Mcculloch '27 |
Annabella Milano '25 Cecelia Hoogstra '25 Mark Lieshaj '26 Haley Kloepfer '25 |
|
Rye Country Day School | Wildcats | Alice Rikkers '26 Helen Halvorson '26 Zack Wirth '27 |
Emily Williams '26 Daphne Panie '27 Henry Hart '28 Josh Greene '25 |
|
St. John the Baptist | Cougars | Catherine Desmond '26 Kathryn Elliott '26 Kevin Ryan '25 |
Caitlin Stewart '27 Molly Mcmanus '26 Bridget Theisen '25 |
|
Bay Shore High School | Marauders | Abigail Regan '26 Gregorio Aris '28 Logan '28 Luca Defranco '25 Macklin Guercio '27 |
Macklin Guercio '27 Joshua Wolferd '26 Louis Smyth '26 Alex Costello '28 Riley Striplin '29 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
