Rye Country Day School '26
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.70 (fleet 1.19) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.03 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 7–14 (33%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2024 | 1 | 2–3 | — |
| Spring 2024 | 1 | 1–7 | — |
| Spring 2023 | 1 | 4–4 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (21 matches) the record is 7–14 against 9.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−2.6). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-28 | NYISA-SE Fall Team Race Championship 2024 | skipper | 1.05 | 0.48 | 2–3 | 2.4 | −0.58 | 0.1 | 83% |
| 2024-04-14 | NYISA-SE Team Race Championship Spring 2024 | skipper | 1.04 | -1.13 | 1–7 | 2.4 | −2.17 | 1.6 | 98% |
| 2023-04-22 | NYISA-SE Team Race Championship | skipper | 0.86 | 0.10 | 4–4 | 4.7 | −0.77 | 0.3 | 88% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| NYISA-SE Fall Team Race Championship 2024 | Skipper | TR | 5 | 40% | — |
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| NYISA-SE Team Race Championship Spring 2024 | Skipper | TR | 8 | 12% | — |
| MASSA Invitational | Crew | B | 2 | 6.0 | — |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Helen Halvorson |  Rye High School |
'26 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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