| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
The Stony Brook School | Bears | 7–1 |
| 2 |  |
Rye High School | Garnets | 6–2 |
| 3 |  |
Mamaroneck High School | Tigers | 5–3 |
| 4 |  |
Rye Country Day School | Wildcats | 1–7 |
| 5 |  |
St. John the Baptist | Cougars | 1–7 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 10,731 team race matches sailed before 2024-04-14, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 17 of 20 matches (85%) with a log-loss of 0.332 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.18 ± 0.48: a typical event, more orderly than 55% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Stony Brook School Bears | 1 | 5.90 school −0.26, home +0.15 | Gavin Hudson / Joshua Henson 2.54 Mauro Gonzales / Elaine Tian 1.96 Mairead Reitzel / Andy Ye 1.30 | 83% | 7–1 (88%) | +0.3 |
| 2 | Rye High School Garnets | 2 | 4.82 school +0.25 | Melanie Lahrkamp / Annabella Milano Kai Mcculloch / Hugo Sacristan Finn Palermo / Haley Kloepfer 1.48 | 65% | 6–2 (75%) | +0.8 |
| 3 | Mamaroneck High School Tigers | 3 | 4.62 school +0.16 | Owen Bischoff / Lanie Ferrarone Gabby Collins / Max Lazarus 1.75 Michelle Kaneti / Graham Welsh 1.45 | 62% | 5–3 (62%) | +0.0 |
| 4 | Rye Country Day School Wildcats | 4 | 2.79 school +0.07 | Helen Halvorson / Josh Greene 1.04 Zack Wirth / Frank Zingg Connor Rusch / Sara Komaroff 0.78 1–5 Connor Rusch / Louis Panie 0.62 0–2 | 30% | 1–7 (12%) | −1.4 |
| 5 | St. John the Baptist Cougars | 5 | 1.12 school −0.25 | Catherine Desmond / Molly Mcmanus 0.77 Bernadette Scott / Eoghan Mccarthy Juliana Miller / Maddie Niola | 9% | 1–7 (12%) | +0.3 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Rye High School | 4.82 | 5.63 | 6–2 | 5.2 | +0.81 | 0.3 | 41% |
| 5 | St. John the Baptist | 1.12 | 1.68 | 1–7 | 0.7 | +0.56 | 0.1 | 53% |
| 1 | The Stony Brook School | 5.90 | 6.40 | 7–1 | 6.6 | +0.50 | 0.1 | 59% |
| 3 | Mamaroneck High School | 4.62 | 4.63 | 5–3 | 5.0 | +0.01 | 0.0 | 67% |
| 4 | Rye Country Day School | 2.79 | 0.62 | 1–7 | 2.4 | −2.17 | 1.6 | 98% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melanie Lahrkamp | Rye High School | 1.80 | 2.60 | 6–2 | 5.2 | +0.81 | 0.3 | 41% |
| Kai Mcculloch | Rye High School | 1.19 | 2.00 | 6–2 | 5.2 | +0.81 | 0.3 | 41% |
| Catherine Desmond | St. John the Baptist | 0.77 | 1.33 | 1–7 | 0.7 | +0.56 | 0.1 | 53% |
| Bernadette Scott | St. John the Baptist | 0.27 | 0.83 | 1–7 | 0.7 | +0.56 | 0.1 | 53% |
| Juliana Miller | St. John the Baptist | 0.10 | 0.66 | 1–7 | 0.7 | +0.56 | 0.1 | 53% |
| Mauro Gonzales | The Stony Brook School | 1.96 | 2.46 | 7–1 | 6.6 | +0.50 | 0.1 | 59% |
| Mairead Reitzel | The Stony Brook School | 1.30 | 1.80 | 7–1 | 6.6 | +0.50 | 0.1 | 59% |
| Owen Bischoff | Mamaroneck High School | 1.19 | 1.20 | 5–3 | 5.0 | +0.01 | 0.0 | 67% |
| Zack Wirth | Rye Country Day School | 0.79 | -1.38 | 1–7 | 2.4 | −2.17 | 1.6 | 98% |
| Connor Rusch | Rye Country Day School | 0.78 | -1.38 | 1–7 | 2.4 | −2.17 | 1.6 | 98% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Bears | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Tigers | 3-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Tigers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Tigers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Wildcats | 3-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Bears | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Garnets | 3-4-5 |
| 5 | |
Garnets | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Garnets | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Wildcats | 3-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Tigers | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Garnets | 2-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Wildcats | 3-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Cougars | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Wildcats | 2-4-5 |
| 11 | |
Wildcats | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Bears | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wildcats | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Garnets | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Tigers | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 2-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Tigers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Wildcats | 3-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Garnets | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bears | 3-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Bears | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Tigers | 3-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Garnets | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wildcats | 4-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Garnets | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Tigers | 2-4-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
The Stony Brook School | Bears | Gavin Hudson '24 Mairead Reitzel '24 Mauro Gonzales '24 |
Joshua Henson '25 Andy Ye '24 Elaine Tian '24 |
|
Rye High School | Garnets | Finn Palermo '24 Kai Mcculloch '27 Melanie Lahrkamp '27 |
Haley Kloepfer '25 Hugo Sacristan '26 Annabella Milano '25 |
|
Mamaroneck High School | Tigers | Gabby Collins '24 Michelle Kaneti '25 Owen Bischoff '25 |
Max Lazarus '25 Graham Welsh '23 Lanie Ferrarone '24 |
|
Rye Country Day School | Wildcats | Connor Rusch '25 Helen Halvorson '26 Zack Wirth '27 |
Sara Komaroff '27 Louis Panie '30 Josh Greene '25 Frank Zingg '26 |
|
St. John the Baptist | Cougars | Bernadette Scott '24 Catherine Desmond '26 Juliana Miller '24 |
Eoghan Mccarthy '24 Molly Mcmanus '26 Maddie Niola '27 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
